See below minutes from today's meeting and also the video recording. Feel Free to reach out if you have any questions.
Video Recording
Summary
Stephen Cox provided the holiday schedule, noting the continuation of daily market updates and support via WhatsApp, and outlined changes for the new year regarding option trade alert distribution and platform access via the "knowledge base" and Equity Scan messenger tab. He analyzed the S&P 500, suggesting a potential bearish double top or head and shoulders pattern and predicting a higher market next year unless a recession is triggered by a selloff in Bitcoin or stocks. Stephen Cox detailed the first trade being lined up for 2026—a speculative short put on SPY—which is currently on hold due to low IV rank, and addressed Pat O'Brien's inquiry about the required account size, leading to a discussion on transforming the trade into a bull put spread for the IBKR 10K account and demonstrating a single-contract trade on the IG index platform with an automated risk management strategy. Stephen Cox also analyzed the oil market, suggesting trading strategies using USO or micro futures contracts, provided updates on current stock portfolio holdings (Alaska, Flutter, and Weather Spoons), and offered strategies for managing gold positions, including buying put options for protection.
Details
Holiday Schedule and Support Stephen Cox wished everyone a happy Christmas and prosperous New Year, announcing that this is the last group web meeting of the year, with no scheduled web meetings for the next two weeks. He confirmed that daily market updates and support via WhatsApp will continue, and they would organize an emergency web meeting if market conditions warrant it (00:05:53).
Changes to Option Trade Alerts and Platform Access Stephen Cox introduced a change for the new year on how option trade alerts will be distributed for both IG Index and IBKR, and how trades will be recorded, accessed, and followed (00:05:53). Participants should log in to the website to access more material, specifically by navigating to the "knowledge base," where a new folder called "trades and portfolios" has been created for the trade templates and logs for the simulated 10K accounts for 2026 options (00:07:03). Logged-in users can also use a messenger tab in the bottom right corner of Equity Scan for quick links to news feeds, including option trades, and to start a conversation with him or schedule a mentoring session (00:09:49).
S&P 500 Market Analysis and Outlook Stephen Cox discussed the potential for a double top or head and shoulders pattern in the S\&P 500, indicating a bearish sign if the market breaks below the current area (00:11:31). He suggested a retest of the S\&P 500 around 660-650, citing rotation out of the "Mag 7" stocks, which account for a large percentage of the S\&P 500, as the primary culprit for market weakness (00:12:41). Stephen Cox predicted the market would go higher next year, potentially into the mid-700s, unless the US economy goes into a recession, which could be triggered by a selloff in Bitcoin or stocks (00:14:56).
Lining Up the First Trade: Short Put Strategy Stephen Cox detailed the first trade they are lining up for 2026, a speculative short put on the S\&P 500 (SPY) using the 640 strike for the IBKR 10K account (00:15:54). Although the 92% probability of success and the 6.5% buffer before losing money look favorable, the trade is currently on hold because the premiums are not high enough due to a low IV rank of 11 (00:17:00). Pat O'Brien inquired about the required account size for a single short put contract, which Stephen Cox estimated to be around 20K to manage the margin effectively (00:17:53) (00:19:40).
IBKR vs. IG Index and Trade Adjustments Stephen Cox demonstrated that on a 10K IBKR account, a single short put would require more margin than available, necessitating the transformation of the trade into a bull put spread to limit risk (00:17:53). He also shared that an algorithm is being developed for IG index accounts to automate the trading strategy, including placing the put option, rolling it out and down under pressure, and stopping out at specific parameters (00:19:40). Using the IG index platform, Stephen Cox demonstrated placing the trade with a bet size of 20 at the 6,400 strike, resulting in a potential tax-free profit of $520 in one month, representing over a 5% return on investment (00:20:34).
Risk Management and Automation Stephen Cox outlined the risk management strategy for the IG index trade, which involves rolling out to the next month's expiry and down to a lower strike price to adjust the break-even point if the trade comes under pressure (00:22:42). The automatic trigger for rolling the trade will be if the US 500 price gets within 1% of the strike price (e.g., reaching 6,500 for the 6,400 strike) (00:23:46). Stephen Cox emphasized they will document and record all trade actions and updates in the news feed (00:24:53).
Oil Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Stephen Cox discussed oil prices stabilizing at significant lows not seen since COVID due to factors like lower demand from the struggling Chinese economy, excess supply, and talks of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia (00:25:50). They suggested trading oil through conservative options like buying USO (an ETF) or by buying riskier call options on USO or the micro futures contract (MCL), going out 60 to 90 days to increase the chance of winning (00:26:53). Trading oil using call options on the IG index platform can also be done, structured as a tax-free bet for UK and Ireland residents, where the bet size dictates potential profit or loss (00:29:59).
Updates on Stock Portfolio Holdings Stephen Cox provided updates on current stock holdings, noting they are still waiting for Alaska to reach $55 and will hold onto Flutter (00:32:18). They are preparing to sell Weather Spoons once it closes near the target price of 750, with an alert already set. Stephen Cox reminded attendees that updates on the long-term buy and hold portfolio stocks, including their thought process and target prices, are available in Equity Scan (00:33:20).
Gold Market and Position Management Stephen Cox noted that gold has retested its highs, suggesting that investors who have made significant profits might consider buying put options to protect their position without realizing the profit in the current tax year (00:34:15). They also suggested waiting until January to see if the gold ceiling is broken; if not, selling then and buying back in cheaper later could be an option (00:35:10).
📞 Strategy Call Assistance
If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.
PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.
