EquityScan Spotlight: The Oracle (ORCL) Success Story 🔍

A few weeks ago, when the market was panic-selling Oracle (ORCL) down 28% for the year, our EquityScan tool flagged it as a massive "Value Play."

• The Result: Yesterday, Oracle skyrocketed 20% in the past 2 days, leading the S&P 500.
• The Lesson: While others were focused on short-term "debt concerns" and "AI bubbles," our system focused on the $553 billion backlog and the 2027 revenue guidance of $90 billion.
• The Opportunity: Oracle is the perfect example of why we look for quality stocks at a discount. We don’t chase green candles; we find value before the rest of the market wakes up.

US 500 Challenge Update: Protecting the Lead 🏆

Our disciplined approach continues to outshine the volatility.

• US 500 Challenge Performance: +9.2% YTD
• Market Context: The broader index is still fighting to stay positive for 2026, yet we have built a significant cushion by sticking to our "Triple Lock" rules.

We are currently lining up our next high-probability Short Put trade. We saw a "V-shaped" recovery yesterday, but we are waiting for a technical pullback to ensure we get the 95% probability of profit we demand.

Market Sentiment: Bullish Momentum 📈

The S&P 500 (currently 6,886) is riding high on the back of the tech rebound. We are watching 6,780 as our new technical floor. If the market retests this level, it may provide the perfect entry for our next income trade.

The Disciplined Minute 🧘‍♂️

"Profit is the reward for the risk you didn't take when the odds weren't in your favor." We missed the "Hormuz" stress because our rules kept us out. Now, we wait for the market to give us our next 3% ROI window.

Not sure how to play this volatility? Let's talk.

The markets are moving fast, and while hindsight is 20/20, the real skill is knowing what to do before the move happens.

If you’re looking to protect your portfolio and want to see exactly how our Triple Lock Defence System works in real-time, I’m opening up a few slots for a Free 10-Minute Strategy Call.

On this call, we’ll look at:

1. Your current trading goals for 2026.
2. How to apply a 6% "Margin of Safety" to your own index positions.
3. The exact levels we are waiting for to place our next 95% probability trade.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details:

• S&P 500 Market Analysis and Trade Strategy: The S&P 500 has broken above a downtrend and the 200-day moving average, which are positive technical signs (00:00:00). The recent low has likely been put in, and the only factor that could cause a new low is a US recession, which is currently unlikely (00:01:11). Although they would not stop anyone from placing a short put trade on the 6,400 strike immediately, the current strategy is to wait for a potential pullback to secure better premium and possibly target a lower strike price, such as 6,300 or 6,200 (00:03:10).
• Timing the S&P 500 Entry: The primary objective is to time the entry for the trade, as the market experienced a significant jump (00:01:11). There is a high likelihood of a short-term pullback, potentially touching the 200-day moving average or filling the gap created by the recent rise, which would offer more premium for the trade (00:02:11) (00:04:54). Although a trade placed immediately is expected to be successful, waiting for a couple of down days is expected to lead to a better entry price, premium, and potentially a lower strike, which would make the trade less stressful (00:04:54) (00:17:22).
• S&P 500 Futures Contract Size and Margin: For the US 500, they are comfortable with the 6,400 strike for the April 30th expiry. The recommended bet size is determined by the account value, such as 12 per point for a 10K account, to keep the margin below 40% of the account value (00:06:38). If an account were 20K, the bet size would be 24 to maintain the margin requirement (00:07:38).
• MES Futures (Micro S&P 500) Explained: MES stands for the micro futures of the S&P 500, a smaller version of the main ES futures contract, where the prices are the same but contract sizes differ (00:07:38). A key advantage of trading MES over instruments like SPY or XSP is that it trades 24 hours a day, five days a week (24/5), allowing trades to be opened and closed from Sunday night to Friday night. Trading MES involves selling a put option on the June futures contract, and assignment of a contract is possible if the put option is in the money at expiry (00:08:51) (00:12:59).
• MES Margin Requirements and Trading Details: The margin requirements for MES are currently lower than some other instruments, but this can change rapidly, and traders should aim to keep the margin below 50% on these trades. For a 10K account, they would typically use two MES contracts, resulting in an estimated return on investment of 2.7% over three weeks with a 94% chance of profit (00:09:54) (00:15:01). Interactive Brokers is available 24 hours a day as long as markets are trading, and pricing for MES options changes outside of normal business hours, unlike traditional options (00:10:57).
• Trading ES vs. MES and Liquidity: Trading options on ES (the main S&P 500 futures contract) is possible for those with a sizeable account, but the multiplier is 50, resulting in much higher exposure and margin requirements compared to MES (00:12:59). Although liquidity for futures is generally highest during US market hours, it is usually easy to close MES trades 24/5 because market makers are required to provide bid and ask prices, even though spreads might be slightly wider during low-liquidity periods (00:15:01). The S&P futures are among the most highly traded index futures globally, contributing to relatively high liquidity (00:16:18).
• Comparison of XSP and SPY: When choosing between XSP and SPY, XSP is cash-settled, meaning there is no assignment of an asset at expiry; they either win or lose the trade. SPY results in the assignment of shares if the price falls below the strike, so they should choose SPY if they prefer to be assigned an asset to benefit from a potential rebound, or XSP if they are not concerned with assignment. Futures contracts, like MES, will expire worthless if the strike price is above the futures price at expiry, resulting in full profit without requiring any action to close the trade (00:18:19).
• Market Outlook and Recession Risk: It is anticipated that the market will move higher by the end of the year, with the only potential impediment being a US recession. The rebound of major technology stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon is expected to lift the market (00:20:29) (00:23:27). Inflation is identified as a potential problem due to the impact of higher oil prices, which must be monitored alongside the TLT and 10-year yield (00:21:26) (00:23:27).
• Investment Ideas: Gold, Silver, and Equities: Gold is recommended as an asset to hold for the long term (two to three years) due to expected persistent inflation and geopolitical risks, making it a safe-haven asset (00:24:17) (00:28:00). Silver has broken out of its downtrend, suggesting it is a viable trade, particularly for momentum trading or by selling puts on the SLV ETF (00:24:17) (00:29:57). Individual equities, such as Alaska Airlines, Nvidia, and Amazon, are highlighted as potential investments, with the airline play being tied to a drop in oil prices, and Nvidia being viewed as the "heartbeat of AI" (00:26:03).
• Strategy for Options on Gold (GLD): When considering buying long-term gold options (leaps) and selling calls, the use of the GLD ETF is recommended (00:31:55). This complex strategy, which involves buying a deep in-the-money call (around 0.7 delta, 9 months to expiry) and selling covered calls against it, carries a risk: if gold surges significantly, the short-term call option going deep in the money could lead to an overall loss if the gain in the long call does not match it (00:33:10). A less complex and safer approach is suggested, which involves simply buying GLD shares and selling covered calls, or just holding the leap option on its own (00:34:18).
• Understanding Bull Call Spreads: When a bull call spread experiences a dramatic jump in the underlying asset, the expected maximum profit may not be fully realized immediately due to the remaining time value in the short call option, which is often greater than the time value left in the long call option (00:35:22). Traders should be content with realizing 50% of the maximum potential profit on bull call spreads to avoid being negatively impacted by this time value dynamic (00:36:34).
• Natural Gas Trading: Natural gas futures are generally preferred for trading over the UNG ETF because UNG smooths out price changes and may not reflect the same gains as the underlying futures. Natural gas trading is highly volatile, requiring a "very very very very strong stomach," but as a trader, they would focus on the futures, while UNG offers a smoother ride for investors with a longer time horizon (00:38:32) (00:40:58).
• Final S&P Strategy Confirmation: The current strategy for the S&P 500 is to wait for a small pullback to get a better entry and premium, as the market floor is believed to be set (00:17:22) (00:40:58). If a trade is missed for April, they are still ahead of their annual 30% target, so patience is key (00:20:29) (00:40:58).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call or face to face strategy session.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details:

• IT Project Updates: App and Website Improvements: Stephen Cox announced updates regarding the three ongoing IT projects, with the first being the application which is set to be improved over the next few weeks and which they encourage users to download. The second project involved changes to the front-end website, which now features a member login option (00:05:33).
• Course Management System Implementation: Following positive feedback, and a suggestion from Kieran, the course content is being migrated to a dedicated course management system. This new system, which includes quizzes and tracking for completed modules, will initially host stock market investing courses, with spread betting, tax-free, and options trading content being added over the next two weeks (00:06:23).
• US 500 Integration and Premium Mentoring Fees: The third project is the ongoing integration of the US 500 performance data into the application, which will provide a continuous, automatic download and a much more seamless interface (00:07:18). Stephen Cox also clarified that the increase in premium mentoring fees applies only to new people joining, while existing clients will retain their current discounted rate as long as they remain members (00:08:19).
• Market Volatility and Option Trading Strategy: Volatility in the market has increased, causing the VIX to rise by 13% and resulting in higher premiums for option trades (00:09:16). Stephen Cox noted that the previous day's address had not resolved geopolitical issues, and the resulting uncertainty has led to higher oil prices and pressure on the market, which is expected to open back into a downtrend (00:10:21).
• Risk Management and Trading Timeline: Stephen Cox advised considering risk management, especially since the US markets will be closed on the following day, meaning any trade would need to hold through the weekend until Monday's market opening (00:11:18). They discussed the option of using today's volatility to write the 5,800 short puts for a 2.3% profit, with a contingency plan to roll the trade down to the 5,400 level in case of a significant market downturn (00:12:20).
• Preference for Waiting and Market Certainty: The current preference is to wait until the following week to trade, as waiting offers certainty regarding the market direction despite the risk of missing a potential rally (00:14:15). Stephen Cox emphasized that even if the market rises, they will still be able to enter a trade for April at a different strike price to achieve the target return, and certainty is crucial before entering a long bank holiday weekend (00:15:13).
• Geopolitical Concerns and Market Risk: Patrick and Philip Lambert raised concerns that Donald Trump is likely to take action over the weekend while markets are closed, especially concerning the Straits of Hormuz (00:17:08). Stephen Cox agreed with the cautious approach, stating that putting "boots on the ground" could lead to a long, protracted conflict, confirming their inclination to stay out of the market for the moment (00:18:02).
• Metals Market Behavior: Clive Wisdom questioned why metals prices were decreasing while oil prices were increasing, which Stephen Cox attributed primarily to the strengthening US dollar, as gold is quoted in dollars (00:21:48). Other contributing factors include rumors of central banks selling off gold due to geopolitical risk, and the impact of the dollar's strength on gold's value (00:22:45).
• Future Outlook and Strategy on Gold: Stephen Cox indicated that gold is on their personal watch list for diversification, suggesting that if gold revisits its lows, it could be a buying opportunity, with potential upside of 25% when the conflict ends. They are waiting for the conflict to end before allocating about 20% of their portfolio to gold, and advised non-Irish investors to use simple ETFs like GLD for investment (00:25:03).
• Decision to Hold Off Trading and Focus on Certainty: Stephen Cox confirmed they will not be trading today and will wait until the following week due to the bank holiday, oil prices, and market uncertainty, stressing that they are comfortable missing a market jump in favor of certainty (00:26:06). They hope the market low will be retested, making them more comfortable writing the 5,500 puts for April (00:27:01).
• Individual Equity Opportunities: While preferring broad-based index investing, Stephen Cox noted that certain individual equities like Oracle, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are looking decent around their current levels, and Alaska Airlines is also on their list (00:28:03). They clarified that they are not buying stock at the moment and believe shorting the market is currently too risky, advising others to stay in cash (00:29:10).
• Monitoring the 10-Year Yield: They advised keeping an eye on the 10-year yield, as its increase is generally negative for the stock market by driving borrowing costs up and reducing stock valuations. A potential trade was identified in TLT, which moves inversely to interest rates; if the 10-year yield creeps back up to 4.5%, selling $85 puts on TLT could be a good strategy (00:30:05).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call or face to face strategy session.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Yesterday, Tuesday, March 31, 2026, the markets staged a powerful "relief rally" as the first real signs of a diplomatic off-ramp in the Iran conflict began to emerge. The S&P 500 surged +2.89% to close at 6,527.27, successfully bouncing off the "oversold" levels we identified earlier in the week.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are preparing to pivot. While we have remained in 100% cash to protect our capital, the math is starting to shift in favor of the bulls.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.20% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Challenge (IBKR/MES): Up +7.27% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -4.65% YTD (Recovering from the -7.32% lows).
• Alpha Delivered: +13.85% against the benchmark.

🚨 Upcoming Entry: The Iran "Off-Ramp" Trade

Assuming the diplomatic "off-ramp" being discussed is real, we will be entering a short put trade this week. President Trump is scheduled to make a major address tonight regarding the status of the war. If his message confirms a timeline for de-escalation:

• The Bull Case: We remain fundamentally bullish on equities. If the Iran war ends soon, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and oil prices retreat, we believe the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 by year-end.
• The Strategy: We will look to sell high-probability puts to capture the remaining "fear premium" before the VIX collapses further.

🏛️ Market Analysis: The Turnaround

Yesterday’s price action was the most constructive we have seen in weeks:

• Volatility Crush: The VIX plummeted over 17%, dropping from above 30 down to 25.25. This is a massive "volatility crush" that rewards option sellers.
• RSI Buy Signal: The RSI has crossed back above the 30 level, currently reading near 38. This is the technical "buy trigger" we were waiting for to signal that the immediate downside momentum has exhausted.
• Yield Relief: The US 10-Year Yield retreated to 4.31%, removing some of the "interest rate tax" that has been weighing on tech giants like NVDA and CRM.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Overview: Yesterday was a "risk-on" explosion. Comments from the administration suggesting U.S. forces could end operations "very soon" (potentially within two weeks) provided the spark the market needed.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +2.89%, closing at 6,527.27.
• Nasdaq Composite: Surged +3.15%, finishing at 21,750.12.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +2.10%, closing at 45,920.15.
• WTI Crude Oil: Tumbled as traders began pricing in a reopening of global supply routes.

📊 Stock Spotlight

• NVDA: Led the charge, jumping over 4.7% as the "AI trade" reignited on hopes of lower energy costs for data centers.
• ALK (Alaska Air): Saw a significant bid as oil prices retreated, making it our primary "reopening" value play.

Next Step: I will be watching President Trump's address tonight very closely.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Yesterday, Monday, March 30, 2026, the market attempted a recovery that ultimately ran out of steam. While the morning session showed promise, the rally faded during the second half of the day, leading the S&P 500 to close down -0.39% at 6,343.73. This marked yet another short-term "lower low," keeping the bears in firm control as we head toward the end of the first quarter.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We remain in a highly cautious "wait and see" mode. While sitting on the sidelines can feel passive, our performance speaks for itself—we have protected our capital while the benchmark has crumbled.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.20% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Challenge (IBKR/MES): Up +7.27% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -7.32% YTD (based on yesterday's close).
• Alpha Delivered: +16.52% against the benchmark.

🚨 Market Analysis: The Chart Doesn't Lie

Looking at the attached daily chart of the S&P 500, several key technical factors are at play:

• The Downtrend is Intact: The index remains pinned below the 200-day moving average (the green line) and the red descending trendline. Until we break above these, the trend remains bearish.
• New Lows: Yesterday's close created another short-term low, signaling that buyers are not yet ready to step in with conviction.
• The Glimmer of Hope (RSI): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now reading 27.72, which is firmly in oversold territory. This suggests a bounce is overdue, but as we’ve noted before, this is not a trigger to buy just yet. We are waiting for a clear cross back above the 30 level.

📋 Strategy Update: Watching the "Juicy" Premiums

With the VIX holding steady near 30, option premiums are incredibly lucrative right now. However, volatility can be a double-edged sword, and we expect it could get even "juicier" if the current support levels fail to hold.

• Our Targets: We are closely monitoring the 5500 to 5200 strike prices for the April expiration.
• Current Action: Remaining Patient. We are not going to be lured into a trade just because premiums look good; we want the technical setup to align with the math. We will notify all members immediately if and when we decide to deploy cash.

🏛️ Market Sentiment & Futures

• Futures Update: Equity futures are pointing higher this morning by approximately +0.7%. The big question is whether this move can hold throughout the day or if it will be another "sell the rip" event like yesterday.
• Geopolitics: The market is still holding its breath regarding the Iran conflict, looking for any signs of a definitive diplomatic off-ramp from the administration.

📢 Reminder: Premium Mentoring Deadline

Don't forget that the price increase for the Premium Mentoring Plan takes effect tomorrow, April 1st.

• To lock in the current rate, upgrades must be finalized by Close of Business TODAY, Tuesday, March 31st.
• Note: Existing Premium members will remain on their current rate.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Friday, March 27, 2026, Wall Street capped off a bruising week as the "Retest of the Lows" failed, sending the S&P 500 to new year-to-date lows. The combination of a 10-day extension on the Iran strike deadline and the 10-Year Treasury Yield hitting new highs created a perfect storm for equities, with the index sliding another 1.67% to close at 6,367

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our decision to move to 100% cash has been our best "trade" of the month. While the broader market is in a freefall, our capital remains protected and our performance gap continues to widen.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.20% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Challenge (IBKR/MES): Up +7.27% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -6.96% YTD.
• Alpha Delivered: +16.16% over the benchmark.

🚨 S&P 500 Strategy Update:

I’ve just released a technical review on the current downtrend and how we plan to capitalize on this volatility.

3 Key Points covered:

1️⃣ VIX at 30: Why elevated volatility is great for selling premium, but why we are staying patient for the "True Bottom."

2️⃣ The 5500 - 5200 Target: Why we are eyeing the 5500- 5200 strike for our April puts to maximize our margin of safety.

3️⃣ The Pivot Point: When we stop selling puts and start buying SPY stock (The RSI Trigger).

Watch the full breakdown video:

🏛️ Market Analysis: Support Broken

The chart confirms that the S&P 500 has officially broken its primary support and the first Fibonacci retracement line.

• Next Support: We are now looking at 6,330 as the next stop, roughly 1.5% - 2% lower.
• Oversold RSI: The RSI has dipped to 30.83. While this shows the market is "oversold," it can stay here for weeks during a conflict. We are waiting for a bullish divergence or a reversal candle before selling April premium.

📢 Important: Premium Mentoring Update

A reminder for all members currently on our Pro Mentoring plan:

• Price Increase: Rates for the Premium Mentoring Plan (1-to-1 coaching) will be increasing effective April 1st.
• The Deadline: If you wish to upgrade and lock in the current lower rate, you must do so by Close of Business on Tuesday, March 31st.
• Grandfather Clause: A special note for our existing Premium members—your rates are locked in and will not increase. The price increase only applies to new upgrades and new sign-ups.

📅 Market Review for Friday, March 27, 2026

Overview: The "Fear Premium" returned in force on Friday. With the VIX hovering near 30, the market is pricing in a significant event. However, as the 10-Year yield remains high, the "Value" in tech stocks like NVDA and ORCL is becoming hard to ignore once the geopolitical dust settles.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -1.67%, closing at 6,368
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -2.15%, finishing at 20,948
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -1.73%, closing at 45,166.
• Gold: Rose to $5,145 per ounce as investors sought the ultimate hedge.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Yesterday, Thursday, March 26, 2026, the markets reminded us exactly why "patience is a position." The S&P 500 suffered a sharp -1.74% drop, closing at 6,477.17. As shown in the chart provided, the index is now undergoing a high-stakes retest of its recent lows.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our decision to sit in 100% cash is paying off handsomely. We are avoiding the "chopping block" of this volatile retest while preserving our perfect record for the year.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.20% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Challenge (IBKR): Up +7.27% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -5.37% YTD (based on yesterday's close).

The Big Question: Will this level hold? Technically, the only silver lining from yesterday’s session is that a new low was not created—yet. However, the S&P 500 remains firmly in a short-term downtrend and, crucially, is still trading below its 200-day moving average (green line on your chart). Until the index can reclaim that level, the path of least resistance remains lower.

🏛️ The Yield Headwind: Why Stocks with Higher Yields

A major factor behind yesterday's sell-off was the jump in the US 10-Year Bond Yield, which hit an eight-month high of 4.42%.

Why are higher yields "kryptonite" for stocks?

1. The "Risk-Free" Competitor: When government bonds pay over 4.4%, they become an attractive, "safe" alternative to stocks. Investors often move money out of the volatile equity market and into the safety of fixed income.
2. Valuation Math: Professional analysts use the 10-year yield as the "discount rate" for future earnings. When yields rise, the "present value" of a company's future profits drops—this hits high-growth tech stocks like NVDA particularly hard.
3. Borrowing Costs: Higher yields lead to more expensive mortgages, car loans, and business credit, which slows down the overall economy.

📋 Market Sentiment & Geopolitics

The primary driver of the current "wait and see" mood is the shifting timeline in the Middle East.

• Deadline Extension: President Trump has extended the deadline for potential strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure by another 10 days. While this provides a temporary breather, it also extends the period of peak uncertainty.
• The "Wait" Strategy: We remain not a fan of buying any stocks for the long-term portfolio right now. We want to see the "geopolitical tax" (and those bond yields) come down before we start buying.

📅 Market Review for Thursday, March 26, 2026

Overview: Yesterday was a classic "de-risking" session. The VIX spiked toward 29, reflecting growing anxiety that the "retest" of the lows might fail if the 10-year yield continues to climb.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -1.74%, closing at 6,477.17.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -2.10%, finishing at 21,215.11.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slumped -1.35%, closing at 44,972.33.
• US 10-Year Yield: Rose to 4.42% (Highest since July 2025).

Next Step: We will remain patient. It will be next week at the earliest before we consider placing an April trade.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details:

• Technical Analysis and Market Downtrend: The S&P futures are currently down by 0.9%, and a retest of the recent low is anticipated, which has yet to occur after a previous rally. The market is clearly in a short-term downtrend, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, suggesting it is unwise to enter a trade at this time. If the retest of the low does not hold, the market could drop to the 6,400 level (00:00:00).
• Impact of Rising Bond Yields: Rising bond yields are creating stress in private credit markets, particularly for banks financing AI startups with loans that are now struggling (00:01:31). This situation can become systemic if interest rates continue to rise. Bond yields negatively affect stocks because they increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, reduce equity valuations through higher discounted cash flows, and offer investors a risk-free return alternative of 4.5% to 5% (00:02:42).
• Market Volatility Due to Geopolitical News: The market is highly news-driven, which was demonstrated by a quick exit from a trade following an announcement regarding potential conflict, emphasizing market sensitivity (00:03:51). Currently, the market is marking time due to public disagreements between parties involved in a potential conflict about negotiations and demands. There are concerns about the possibility of "boots on the ground," which, while not a probability, is a possibility that Stephen Cox believes should be avoided, as it could prolong the conflict and increase oil prices (00:04:48).
• Patience and Strategy of Waiting: Given the technical picture is deteriorating and the high level of uncertainty, market patience is necessary, and they should avoid rushing into a trade (00:06:02). The current technical setup and geopolitical unknowns favor waiting until the following week for greater certainty before trading (00:06:54). If a ground invasion were to occur, Stephen Cox estimates a rapid 4% to 5% market drop (00:08:06).
• Defining a Bear Market and Current Trade Positioning: A bear market is defined as a selloff greater than 20%, which would place the market around 5,500. The current trade has priced in a considerable bear market by positioning for a potential level around 5,200. Stephen Cox is waiting and hoping for a further market shakeout to create a better opportunity, which supports the plan to wait until the following week (00:09:15).
• Oil Price Outlook and Stagflation Concerns: Nanik Hotwani noted reports suggesting that oil prices will remain elevated throughout the year due to damage to refineries and energy infrastructure (00:09:15). Stephen Cox agreed that oil prices will likely hover near $100 per barrel for the medium term, and if they reach $150 per barrel, the global economy would struggle, leading to stagflationary events (00:11:47). An agreement between the US and Iran could cause oil prices to drop by 15% to 20% quickly, but rebuilding damaged infrastructure could take up to three years (00:10:27).
• Safe Haven Assets and Market Over-Selling: Gold is unexpectedly selling off despite the current environment, which is attributed to a stronger dollar, central banks reportedly selling stockpiles, and investors liquidating holdings to maintain positions. The flight to safety has not lowered bond yields due to inflationary pressure, and gold, which is an inflation hedge, is also falling, indicating that everything is being sold off (00:12:54). Stephen Cox suggests that if the market continues in the wrong direction, a 5% drop in the S&P 500 is possible, creating great buying opportunities (00:13:58).
• Recommendation to Remain in Cash and Avoid Risk: Stephen Cox advises remaining in cash and allowing the market situation to play out, even if a small rally is missed, because entering trades now is viewed as pure gambling due to the uncertainty (00:14:59). The short put strategy still allows for a strike of 5,700, and if a further selloff occurs, they could write puts at 5,200. Given the uncertainty, waiting a week is not the worst strategy, as the market is still only down about 7% from its peak (00:16:00).
• Volatility Indicator and Market Entry Strategy: When looking at options chains, they should monitor the IV rank, which is currently low at 29, suggesting the possibility of more volatility ahead (00:17:00). Stephen Cox prefers the VIX as the simplest indicator for volatility, noting that if the situation escalates, the VIX could rise above 35 (00:18:08). If the market drops to 6,000, the RSI will be below 30, which historically signals an opportune time to become bullish, requiring patience for a buy signal to materialize (00:19:00).
• Analyzing Specific Equities and the AI Market: Concerns about prolonged high fuel prices suggest staying away from airline and cruise line stocks until oil prices drop (00:21:08). In the AI sector, the narrative is shifting to distinguish between winners and losers, making broad-based investment via the S&P 500 safer than cherry-picking stocks (00:22:13) (00:24:16). Google's stock has outperformed Microsoft due to the success of their AI, Gemini, although valuations are now matching (00:23:09).
• Risks in Software and Infrastructure Stocks: The risks for companies like Oracle are the potential loss of consulting premiums as AI takes over, while the relevance of Salesforce's CRM systems is questioned in the face of rapidly developing AI (00:24:16). A proper CRM system integrated with Google's Gemini could pose a significant threat to competitors (00:25:30). HubSpot's recent stock collapse makes them a potential buyout target for Google, which would be a decisive event in the market (00:26:38).
• Google Stock Investment Advice: Stephen Gavin asked about buying Google stock, which Stephen Cox affirmed is an "absolute buy" for a five-year horizon due to undervalued estimates and room for multiple expansion. However, they should not buy anything this week, including Google, due to the Middle East conflict uncertainty (00:27:30) (00:29:09). Dollar-cost averaging, as suggested by Nanik Hotwani, is an acceptable strategy for buying Google stock, provided that they only invest a small percentage and are prepared for a potential drop to $260 if negotiations fail (00:31:08).
• Hedge Strategies and Risk Tolerance: Michael Carroll asked about implementing a ratio put or bear put spread for protection, which Stephen Cox discouraged for new cash investments, preferring to wait until next week (00:29:09). However, for those who are already fairly long in the market, a bear put spread on SPY is not a bad idea to offset potential losses (00:30:08). Stephen Vajda noted that they had successfully purchased two puts on SPY the previous day (00:31:08).
• Methods for Going Long on the Market: Roy Tyrrell inquired about the best way to go long when the RSI hits the buy signal, and Stephen Cox suggested buying the stock directly as the safest method. Alternative methods include using call options via spread betting with platforms like IG, or buying a long-term call option (a "leap") using a traditional options broker (00:34:03) (00:36:13). IG allows for easy transfer of funds between spread betting and share dealing accounts to purchase an ETF or index directly (00:36:13).
• Interactive Brokers Contract Multiplier Clarification: Stephen Gavin asked for assistance in locating the contract multipliers on the Interactive Brokers platform, noting that they had previously judged them based on the maximum return (00:37:18). Stephen Cox demonstrated that the multiplier can be found by examining the futures contract details, such as where one point equals $5 USD for the MEES micro future (00:39:56). The ES contract has a much larger multiplier, where 50 times 6,000 is a significant amount (00:40:49).
• Final Market Outlook and Trading Decision: Stephen Cox reiterated their decision not to place a trade until next week at the earliest and encouraged everyone to remain in cash due to the market's current volatility and dependence on external decisions. They emphasized that going in blind is essentially gambling, as the market could move drastically in either direction (00:41:32).
• Discussion on Energy ETF (XLE) Strategy: Nanik Hotwani inquired about a potential trade in the XLE energy ETF, assuming oil prices would remain between $110 and $115 (00:42:26). Stephen Cox suggested defined-risk strategies like short puts or, preferably, bull put spreads, such as selling a $54 put and buying a $50 put underneath it. However, Stephen Cox would personally avoid this trade this week, fearing that a news announcement could cause oil prices to drop by 20% rapidly (00:43:26).

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Yesterday, Monday, March 23, 2026, Wall Street experienced a dramatic "Relief Rally" that handed us a perfect opportunity to lock in our gains. The market sentiment shifted sharply after President Trump announced a five-day postponement of military strikes against Iranian power plants to allow for diplomatic talks. This news sent crude oil prices tumbling by over 10% and triggered the best day for the Dow Jones in six weeks.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are officially back in 100% cash after a clinical execution yesterday. We took advantage of the massive "volatility crush" to close our positions at our targets.

• Trade Closed: US 500 Short 6150 Put. Profit: 2.3%
• Trade Closed: XSP Short 615 Pu. Profit: 2.22%

Year-to-Date Performance: We are smashing it. Even with the S&P 500 falling and volatility spiking throughout March, our high-probability strategy continues to deliver.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.20% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Challenge (IBKR): Up +7.27% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -3.86% YTD.

The Math Wins: We maintain a 100% win record for 2026. This is the ultimate proof that the high-probability strategy works; while the index is down nearly 4% for the year, we have grown our capital by over 9%.

Current Action: We are already preparing our next trade for April. However, we will remain patient and wait to see if the recent market lows get a retest before we officially sell the next round of premium.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

The "Trump De-escalation" headlines provided a much-needed bounce for our top targets, but we aren't chasing this rally just yet.

• NVDA (Nvidia): Gained +1.70% ($175.64). The stock remains the primary vehicle for any market recovery, but it is still well off its highs.
• ORCL (Oracle): Recovered to $147.30. Despite the relief rally, investors are still weighing Oracle's massive AI infrastructure spending plans.
• CRM (Salesforce): Closed up near $195. Salesforce is showing a very clean "double bottom" technical pattern on the charts.
• Domestic Airlines: The 10%+ drop in oil (WTI back to $88) was a massive gift for Alaska Air (ALK) and the broader airline sector. If oil stays below $90, this becomes our #1 value play.

📅 Market Review for Monday, March 23, 2026

Overview: It was a classic "Risk-On" reversal. The S&P 500 jumped 1.15% for its best performance since the conflict began. The VIX Index (our "Fear Gauge") plummeted from an intraday high of 31 down to 24.36, which provided the "volatility crush" we needed to exit our put trades profitably.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Followed the risk-on sentiment, climbing back toward $71,000.
• Gold: Slipped back to $5,080 as the immediate need for a "war hedge" eased.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +1.15%, closing at 6,581.04.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +1.41%, finishing at 22,140.63.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Surged +1.38% (+631 points), closing at 46,208.47.
• WTI Crude Oil: Plunged -9.9% to settle at $88.52 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
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Yesterday, Friday, March 20, 2026, Wall Street capped off a grueling week as a "Quadruple Witching" expiration and surging energy costs pushed the major indices to their lowest levels of the year. Despite the broad market weakness, our defensive positioning allowed us to navigate the storm while the benchmark S&P 500 officially dipped into a nearly 5% loss for 2026.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are smashing it. Even with the S&P 500 falling and volatility rising, we are still winning on our trades. Year to date, we maintain a 100% win record. The high-probability strategy works.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +8.19% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +5.97% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -4.95% YTD.

US 500 Challenge Update: March 21, 2026

Current Trade Performance Our current US 500 short put trade is currently up 1.27% in just 16 days. Despite the S&P 500 dropping -1.51% yesterday to close at 6,506.45, our "Margin of Safety" has kept the position in positive territory. We are almost ready to lock in these gains as we head into the final week of March.

Strategy Resilience The gap between our performance and the index is now over 13%. This highlights the core strength of our approach: we don't need the market to go up to make money; we just need it to stay above our "floor." While others are panicking over a 5% index drop, we are collecting steady premiums.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

We remain in "patient observer" mode. We are not fans of buying stocks right now while the VIX remains elevated, but the valuation gap is getting hard to ignore.

• NVDA (Nvidia): Hit hard yesterday, falling -3.2% to close at $172.84. It is approaching our primary support zone.
• ORCL (Oracle): Slipped -1.15% ($153.73), giving back some of its post-earnings gains in the broad tech rout.
• CRM (Salesforce): Dropped -1.42% ($192.20), continuing to base near its 52-week lows.
• Domestic Airlines: Alaska Air (ALK) is trading at deep-value levels. We are simply waiting for an "off-ramp" in the Iran conflict to remove the fuel-price headwind before we buy.

📅 Market Review for Friday, March 20, 2026

Overview: It was a "Risk-Off" Friday. Crude oil prices stabilized near $98, but the damage to consumer sentiment was already done. The VIX Index spiked back toward 28, causing a broad re-pricing of risk across all sectors.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Fell -2.8% to $69,180 as the "flight to safety" favored the U.S. Dollar over digital assets.
• Gold: Rose to $5,120 per ounce, acting as the preferred hedge against geopolitical escalation.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -1.47%, closing at 6,508.45.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -1.88%, finishing at 21,674.52.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -0.98%, closing at 45,595.46.
• WTI Crude Oil: Settled slightly higher at $98.14 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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