Hi there,

📚 New Spreadbetting Option Courses

We are constantly updating our spread betting courses and adding traditional option strategies to help our UK and Irish-based clients navigate all market conditions within a tax-free environment. The latest addition is the Bull Put Spread course, designed for income generation in neutral-to-bullish markets.

• Spread Betting Clients: You can access our full suite of tax-free strategy courses here: 👉 Access Share Navigator Spread Betting Courses
• Traditional Option Traders: For all other clients trading traditional options via platforms like IBKR, please note that these courses are already fully completed and available in your knowledge base. 👉 Access Share Navigator Tradtional Option Trading Courses

Overview:

U.S. indices edged lower on Friday as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a four-month high of 4.23%. This move followed hints from the administration regarding future Federal Reserve leadership, which sparked volatility in interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Despite the slight dip, the semiconductor sector remained a pocket of strength.

Note: U.S. markets will be CLOSED this Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

📈 Major Indices

• S&P 500: Slipped -0.01%, closing at 6,966.28.
• Nasdaq Composite: Declined -0.08%, finishing at 23,671.35.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fell -0.18% (86 points), closing at 49,504.07.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Rose to 4.23%, its highest level since September.
• Gold: Declined -0.6% to settle at $4,595 per ounce.
• Silver: Dropped over -3.0% after a strong weekly run-up.
• WTI Crude Oil: Advanced +0.4% to settle at $59.40 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): Up +1.68% ($231.76). Watchlist: Continued to outpace the broader market, benefiting from the ongoing AI-hardware boom.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Up +9.14% ($62.34). A massive breakout session as the stock surged on high volume, clearing previous resistance levels with ease.
• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Up +0.77% ($50.04). Managed a modest gain, showing resilience despite the rise in yields and oil.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +0.73% ($120.53). Note: We continue to monitor Dell closely for a break in its technical downtrend. While it finished in the green, it has yet to clear its 50-day moving average ($122.82).
• META (Meta Platforms): Down -0.09% ($620.25). Finished effectively flat as it consolidated near current levels.
• ANET (Arista Networks): Down -0.60% ($129.81). Watchlist: Experienced a minor pullback after its strong outperformance earlier in the week.
• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Down -0.83% ($330.39). Eased back from record highs alongside broader mega-cap software weakness.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Down -0.87% ($25.67). Followed the defensive health sector lower during the session.
• STZ (Constellation Brands): Down -1.33% ($156.64). Faced selling pressure as investors rotated out of staples.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Down -4.40% (14,985.00p). Faced a sharp decline in the London session, breaking below the 15,000p support level.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

📚 New Bear Put Spread Course

We have created a new Bear Put Spread course for IG Index (Profits are tax-free for Ireland & UK residents) in our knowledge base. This strategy is essential for navigating downward market shifts.

Over the coming weeks, we will be expanding this series to cover all major option strategies for IG Index, including:

• Bull Put Spreads (Income generation in neutral-to-bullish markets)
• Bear Call Spreads (Profit from sideways-to-bearish moves)
• Ratio Spreads (Advanced volatility and direction plays)

You can access the initial course here: 👉 Tax-Free Bear Put Spread Guide (UK & Ireland)

📅 Market Review for Thursday, January 15, 2026

Overview: US indices snapped a two-day losing streak as semiconductor strength and cooling geopolitical tensions boosted sentiment. The Dow surged nearly 300 points, while oil prices tumbled over 4% after President Trump signaled a de-escalation with Iran. Note: We continue to remain patient regarding our first option trade of the year, waiting for volatility to settle before committing capital.

📈 Major Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose +0.60%, closing at 49,442.44.
• S&P 500: Gained +0.30%, closing at 6,944.47.
• Nasdaq Composite: Gained +0.30%, closing at 23,530.02.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Rose to 4.17% following strong jobless claims data.
• Gold: Slipped to $4,610 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Dropped -4.3% to settle at $58.90 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): Up +1.93% ($227.91). Watchlist: Led the chip recovery following TSMC's bullish guidance.
• ANET (Arista Networks): Up +4.40% ($130.59). Watchlist: Outperformed significantly as AI networking demand remains a core theme.
• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Up +3.91% ($49.66). Bounced back strongly as the market cheered its massive fleet expansion plans.
• STZ (Constellation Brands): Up +1.57% ($158.82). Showed solid gains, recovering well from earlier volatility.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Up +1.17% ($25.88). Caught a steady bid as the broader market rally lifted healthcare.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +0.82% ($119.66). Finished the day in the green, but remains in a larger technical downtrend. Note: We are preparing to buy but continue to wait for a definitive breakout signal.
• META (Meta Platforms): Up +0.85% ($620.80). Participated in the tech lift, though trailing some of the high-flying hardware names.
• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Down -0.91% ($332.78). Faced minor profit-taking after hitting record highs earlier in the week.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Down -3.03% ($57.12). Eased back from recent highs as the healthcare sector saw some capital rotation.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Up +0.27% (15,080p).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Summary

Stephen Cox discussed the market outlook and investment psychology for metals, advising traders to exit silver at its peak and consider re-entry after a 5% to 10% pullback, while recommending investors hold gold due to its uptrend. Stephen Cox provided an update on the S&P 500 short put strategy, explaining that low implied volatility (VIX around 16) has kept premiums low, and clarified margin considerations for rolling out and down on the IG Index platform in response to a question from Roy. Additionally, Stephen Cox suggested taking profits in oil-related holdings due to potential price drops, highlighted Dell, Arista Networks, and AMD as stocks benefiting from the AI trend, and advised Stephen on trading versus investing approaches for their AMD position.

Details

• Market Outlook and Investment Psychology for Metals Stephen Cox started the meeting by noting that silver had reached a peak and emphasized the different psychologies required for traders versus investors. For traders, the approach with silver, agreed upon with Jerry Prior, was to exit at the high and look to re-enter if the price pulled back 5% or preferably 10%. The discussion also covered key drivers for silver prices, including a levy by China on exports, its use in renewable energy and data centers, and its correlation with gold as a byproduct of market uncertainty, leading to a "goldilock scenario" at the time.
• Silver Price Volatility and Trading Strategy Stephen Cox noted the risk in commodity investing, specifically mentioning the potential for silver prices to drop heavily if China were to lift its embargo, bringing more supply to the market. As predicted, silver experienced a rapid selloff, dropping 8% at one stage, nearing the 10% retracement target for re-entry from a trader's perspective, as consolidation is expected after a new high. For traders, Stephen Cox suggested waiting for a 10% or more pullback, possibly a retest of the low, before going long and exiting before retesting the subsequent high to mitigate the risk of a new top forming.
• Gold Investment and Trading Approach Regarding gold, Stephen Cox observed that it had recently made a new high, which is a positive sign, and suggested that gold is less inclined to be traded compared to silver due to silver's greater movement. For investors, they recommended applying an investor's psychology, leaving gold on and not trying to time the market, as it is in a clear uptrend.
• S&P 500 Short Put Strategy and Volatility Stephen Cox updated the team on the S&P 500 short put strategy, noting that no options trades had been placed this year due to low options premiums caused by low implied volatility, as measured by the VIX being around 16, which is significantly below the average of 20 and above. They explained that option premiums are based on volatility, and low VIX means less pay for selling option premium, though a selloff in the S\&P 500 would increase implied volatility and option premiums.
• Short Put Strategy Mechanics and Index Preference The short put strategy involves selling a put option with the goal of profiting from time decay, exemplified by selling a 660 put on SPY, resulting in a high probability of profit as long as the price stays above the break-even point. Stephen Cox strongly advised using this strategy only with indexes like the S&P 500 for a return-based strategy, cautioning against individual equities unless the intent is to own the stock, especially around earnings season when implied volatility increases for individual stocks. The preferred trade at the time was the 650 short put for the end of February, but Stephen Cox was waiting for a market selloff to secure better premiums.
• Trade Management and Rolling Out and Down Stephen Cox detailed the management of a short put trade, explaining that a trigger point, such as SPY falling to 656 from 693, would necessitate action. The action would be to "roll out and down," which means buying back the original contract and opening a new one further out in time (e.g., to the end of March) at a lower strike price (e.g., 625) to cover the cost, effectively lowering the break-even point and increasing the wiggle room, which contributes to the strategy's high success rate.
• IG Index Platform and Margin Considerations Stephen Cox outlined the short put strategy for those using IG Index in the UK and Ireland, noting that the platform wraps options trades as a tax-free bet. Roy Tyrrell inquired about the margin when rolling out and down on the IG Index, and Stephen Cox clarified that the margin from the old contract disappears when bought back, and the new contract's margin would be roughly the same, advising to keep the margin below 60% to allow for wiggle room if positions move adversely. They also pointed out that placing a trade on the IG Index results in an immediate loss due to the difference between the sell and buy price.
• Oil and Oil Stocks Update Stephen Cox provided an update on oil, observing that it had sold off following a prior jump due to events in Iran, and they anticipated it could drop back down to 55, suggesting that holders of USO or related stocks should consider taking profits. They considered oil to be too dangerous for involvement at the time, noting that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia could lead to Russian oil returning to the market, causing a drop in prices despite potential OPEC production cuts.
• Focus Stocks and AI Trend Stephen Cox highlighted three stocks—Dell, Arista Networks, and AMD—all benefiting from the AI trend. In discussing AMD, they noted its strong backlog of orders but cautioned about margin pressures and high valuation multiples. For AMD, Stephen Cox was waiting for two scenarios before acting: either a breakout above the recent high or a breakdown to retest a triple bottom, indicating that a dollar cost averaging strategy is suitable for long-term investors in the stock.
• Arista Networks and Long-Term View on AI Arista Networks was shown to be in a consolidation phase, similar to AMD, with Stephen Cox monitoring it for a bit longer, noting a potential double top formation. Stephen Cox maintained the opinion that the AI trade is not overdone, encouraging those who believe it is not to invest in the three highlighted stocks.
• Guidance for AMD Traders vs. Investors Stephen Vajda asked for advice on their AMD position, which was up 20%. Stephen Cox advised that an investor should hold the stock, but a trader should consider exiting now, taking profit near the high of the consolidation range, with the possibility of re-entering during a retest of the high as support. Stephen Cox also advised against selling a long-term equity option ("leap") while holding onto a sold call option against it, as this carries a risk of substantial losses if the stock jumps significantly, recommending instead to close both positions together.
• Technology Development Updates Stephen Cox concluded by announcing that an app is currently in development and is expected to be ready in four to six weeks, offering features such as booking mentoring sessions and tracking courses and the equity scan. Additionally, a new technology tool, similar to Equity Scan but focused on the US 500 short put challenge, is being built and is anticipated to be ready in about two months, allowing users to track open trades, performance, and actions in real-time with automatic updates and WhatsApp alerts.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

We are expanding our Long-Term Buy & Hold Watchlist today with two powerhouses of the AI infrastructure era: AMD and Arista Networks (ANET).

Why These Two?

Both companies are "essential plumbers" of the artificial intelligence boom.

• AMD is rapidly becoming the primary alternative to Nvidia in the data center, with its server CPUs reportedly nearly sold out for 2026.
• Arista Networks is the backbone of the "AI back-end," providing the high-speed Ethernet switching required to run massive AI training clusters for companies like Meta and Microsoft.

🚦 Current Stance: "Watchlist Only"

While we are highly bullish on the long-term fundamentals of these companies, we want to emphasize: we are not yet ready to pull the trigger.

Both stocks are currently trading at premium valuations following a strong start to 2026. We are looking for specific technical entry points and "healthy pullbacks" before moving these from our Watchlist to our Active Portfolio. Patience is a core part of our strategy—we wait for the right price to ensure the best long-term compounding.

🔍 Dive Deeper on EquityScan

To see the full technical breakdown, valuation models, and the specific "Buy Zones" we are tracking, please use the deep links below to view their live profiles on EquityScan:

• View AMD on EquityScan →
• View ANET on EquityScan →

Remember, you need to login to the members area to get full access to the information.

Have questions about why we’re waiting? Send me a whats app..

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Overview: Wall Street pulled back from record highs on Tuesday. Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed Core inflation cooling to 2.6%, the optimism was eclipsed by a -4.2% drop in JPMorgan Chase. Financials were hit hard by a double-whammy: earnings misses and a proposed 10% federal cap on credit card interest rates.
Note: In terms of our positioning, we remain patient to place our first option trade of the year, as we wait for a better entry point for the US 500 challenge.

Furthermore, we continue to monitor DELL closely. We have also officially added AMD and ANET to our Long Term Watchlist. Please remember that the watchlist is not a BUY list; it is simply a note for us that we may look at buying these at some point in the future.

📈 Major Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fell -0.80%, closing at 49,191.99 (shedding 400 points).

• S&P 500: Slipped -0.20%, closing at 6,963.66.
• Nasdaq Composite: Eased -0.10%, closing at 23,709.87.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Little changed, finishing at 4.18%.

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Strengthened slightly to 99.30.
• Gold: Rose to $4,590 per ounce (settling just below its intraday record of $4,644).
• Silver: Surged +1.6% to $86.40 per ounce.

• WTI Crude Oil: Jumped +2.5% to settle at $61.00 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance

• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Up +1.11% ($336.43). A standout performer, hitting a new all-time high as the market rewards its $4T valuation and Apple AI partnership.

• STZ (Constellation Brands): Up +0.90% ($153.18). Showed resilient relative strength, bucking the broader market decline.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Down -0.66% ($119.88). Note: We are preparing to buy but remain on the sidelines. The stock is still under its 50-day moving average ($122.82), and we are waiting for this technical downtrend to officially break before entering.
• META (Meta Platforms): Down -1.69% ($631.09). Continued to face profit-taking as capital rotates into other AI infrastructure plays.

• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Down -0.38% ($59.63). Saw minor consolidation after a strong opening to the week.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Down -0.57% ($25.13). Drifted lower in line with a softer healthcare sector.
• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Down -2.62% ($48.67). Struggled as rising oil prices ($61) weighed on airline sentiment.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Down -2.52% (15,675.00p). Faced significant pressure in the London session amid regulatory uncertainty.

Next: Today, the focus shifts to Producer Price Index (PPI) data at 8:30 AM ET.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Overview: Wall Street overcame early morning jitters related to political pressure on the Federal Reserve. The major averages finished at new record closing highs, underpinned by a historic move in mega-cap tech. Alphabet became only the fourth U.S. company to cross the $4 trillion market cap threshold following its landmark AI partnership with Apple.

📈 Major Indices

• S&P 500: Gained +0.15%, closing at a new record high of 6,976.71.
• Nasdaq Composite: Rose +0.26%, closing at 23,733.90.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +0.17%, closing at a record 49,590.19.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Rose slightly to 4.19%.
• Gold: Surged to a new all-time high of $4,610 per ounce.
• Silver: Jumped significantly to settle near $85.40 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Settled higher at $59.45 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Up +0.97% ($329.17). Finished at a record high, officially surpassing the $4 trillion valuation mark.
• STZ (Constellation Brands): Up +3.30% ($151.85). Outperformed the broader market significantly, rebounding from its recent laggard status.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Up +1.87% ($59.91). Hit a new peak as global demand for its weight-loss pill continues to drive institutional buying.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +0.03% ($120.66). Finished the session virtually flat. Note: We are preparing to buy but remain disciplined, waiting for the current technical downtrend to definitively end first.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Down -0.33% ($25.40). Eased slightly as capital rotated toward higher-growth sectors.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Down -1.09% (15,905.00p). Faced some selling pressure in the London session, pulling back from its recent 16,000p+ levels.
• META (Meta Platforms): Down -1.70% ($641.97). A notable laggard as investors shifted funds into Alphabet and Nvidia following the Apple-Gemini news.
• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Down -2.62% ($48.67). Gave back its recent gains as the airline sector cooled.

Next Step: With JPMorgan and other major banks kicking off earnings season this morning, the Dow's path to 50,000 is the main story.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

As of Monday, January 12, 2026, the financial landscape is being dominated by a dramatic escalation in political risk and a historic surge in precious metals.

Below is the comprehensive market preview for the week.

🏛️ Macro & FX: The "Powell Subpoena" Shock

The biggest story of the week broke this morning: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed he has been threatened with criminal indictment by the Trump administration over a DOJ investigation into Fed renovation costs.

• Fed Independence: This has immediately revived "credibility risk." When markets perceive that a central bank is being bullied by the government, the currency typically suffers.
• The US Dollar (DXY): The Dollar is softening as traders price in a higher likelihood that the Fed will be forced to cut rates to appease political pressure rather than following economic data. The DXY is testing support at 97.50; a break below this could see a slide toward 96.50.
• The Euro (EUR/USD): The Euro is gaining ground, currently stabilizing between 1.15 and 1.20, with analysts projecting a move toward 1.25 by the end of Q1 if USD weakness persists.

⚱️ Metals: A Historic Breakout

Precious metals are acting as the primary "release valve" for the market's anxiety.

• Gold: Prices have blasted through previous resistance to hit a new all-time high above $4,600 (some projections are now eyeing $5,000). The move is driven by the Fed drama and escalating unrest in Iran.
• Silver: Currently in "panic buying" territory. Silver is coiling for a massive breakout, having recently touched $80–$90 per ounce. With a fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficits, technical analysts see an immediate resistance test at the $100 psychological level.
• Industrial Metals: Copper remains strong (+28% year-on-year) due to the relentless demand from AI infrastructure and green energy grids.

📈 Equities: Record Highs vs. Political Volatility

US stocks finished last week at record highs, but the mood has shifted to caution this morning.

• Current State: The S&P 500 and Dow entered the week at fresh peaks, while the Nasdaq is within 1.2% of its historic high.
• Sector Performance: Small-caps (Russell 2000) are significantly outperforming large-caps as investors rotate into value and domestic cyclicals.
• AI Pivot: A major shift is occurring in tech. Reports that Meta is pivoting toward Alphabet’s AI chips (TPUs) to challenge Nvidia's dominance has caused a divergence: Alphabet shares jumped 7%, while Nvidia and other chipmakers faced selling pressure.

🛢️ Commodities: Energy Surplus

In contrast to the rally in metals, energy remains fundamentally weak.

• Oil (WTI): Prices are struggling to stay near $60. A massive projected oil surplus for 2026—exacerbated by non-OPEC production growth—is keeping a lid on prices.
• Natural Gas: Prices continue to face losses due to unseasonably warm weather patterns and high inventory levels.

📅 The Week's Critical Data Points

• Tuesday (US CPI): The "make or break" report. Expectation is for 2.7% YoY. Anything higher will complicate the Fed's position amid the current political firestorm.
• Wednesday (China Trade/GDP): Will show if the world's second-largest economy is successfully weathering trade tensions.
• Thursday (UK GDP): Crucial for the Pound; early data suggests the UK economy may have stalled in late 2025.
• Friday (US Bank Earnings): Reports from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will reveal how the financial sector is handling the shifting interest rate environment.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Overview: US equity markets surged on Friday as a "Goldilocks" jobs report showed the economy added 66,000 jobs (better than the 60,000 forecast) and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%. This combination of resilience and cooling inflation pushed the major averages to new heights, with the Dow finishing just 496 points away from the 50,000 milestone.

📈 Major Indices

• S&P 500: Gained +0.65%, closing at a new record high of 6,966.28.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +0.81%, closing at 23,671.35.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose +0.48%, closing at a record 49,504.07.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Settled near 4.15%.
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Edged higher to 99.13.
• Gold: Advanced +1.3% to $4,515 per ounce (a new record).
• WTI Crude Oil: Advanced +1.8% to settle at $58.80 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Up +2.86% ($49.98). A standout session following news of a massive order for 105 Boeing 737-10 jets and 5 Dreamliners.
• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Up +0.97% ($329.17). Finished at a new all-time high, officially overtaking Apple in market capitalization.
• META (Meta Platforms): Up +1.08% ($653.06). Strong recovery as mega-cap AI sentiment remains bullish.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +1.79% ($120.62). Despite the bounce, we remain disciplined. We are preparing to buy but are waiting for the current technical downtrend to definitively end before entering.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Up +2.58% ($58.82). Reached a new peak on distribution optimism for its weight-loss pill.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Up +0.71% ($25.47). Caught a steady bid as the broader market rallied.
• STZ (Constellation Brands): Down -0.64% ($147.01). Laggard of the group as investors rotated away from defensive staples.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Up +0.85% (approx. 16,050p). Performed steadily in the London session.

Next: With the Dow now just a stone's throw from 50,000, next week's bank earnings will be the key catalyst.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Overview: US equity markets finished mixed on Thursday. A massive $1.5 trillion military budget proposal from the Trump administration sparked a rally in defense stocks, lifting the Dow. However, the Nasdaq fell as investors pulled back from high-flying AI and semiconductor names, fearing that the recent rally had become overextended.

📈 Major Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Gained +0.55% (approx. 270 points), closing at 49,266.11.
• S&P 500: Finished almost flat, edging up +0.01% to 6,921.46.
• Nasdaq Composite: Declined -0.44%, closing at 23,480.02 due to tech sector weakness.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Slipped to 4.14% (from 4.17%), as soft labor market indicators boosted bond prices.
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Edged +0.1% higher to 98.69.
• Gold: Advanced +0.6% to $4,470 per ounce, benefiting from its safe-haven status.
• WTI Crude Oil: Pulled back -1.7% to settle at $56.15 per barrel following news of increased supply negotiations with Venezuela.

📊 Specific Stock Performance

• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Up +1.1% ($325.44). A strong performer yesterday, Alphabet overtook Apple in market cap to become the second-most valuable company in the world.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Down -1.31% ($118.50). Note: We are closely monitoring Dell and are preparing to buy the stock, but we are currently waiting for the technical downtrend to end first. The stock has depreciated nearly 15% over the past month and remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
• META (Meta Platforms): Down -0.5%. Continued to face mild pressure as part of the broader rotation out of mega-cap tech.
• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Down -0.8%. Underperformed slightly as the industrial sector focused more on defense contractors than travel.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Up +0.3%. Caught a small bid as investors sought out stable, dividend-paying value stocks.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Up +0.2%. Remained relatively stable near its recent highs, consolidating after a strong start to the year.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Flat (16,610p). Erased early losses in the London session to finish essentially unchanged.
• STZ (Constellation Brands): Up +0.6%. Found some support as the consumer staples sector saw a modest recovery.

Next: All eyes are now on the December Non-Farm Payrolls report being released this morning. This will be the ultimate market mover for the week.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Summary

Stephen Cox gave instructions on how members can access premium content, including recordings and trade details, and conducted a stock analysis of Dell, noting it is on the watch list, Stephen Cox suggested considering a dollar-cost averaging strategy. Stephen Cox detailed various investment strategies for Dell, including a long call strategy after Tom Walker inquired about it, and discussed trading and investing strategies for silver, gold, and copper, with Tom Walker also asking about copper. Stephen Cox gave an S\&P 500 market outlook, forecasting a 10% gain this year, and outlined a short put option strategy on SPY, including a discussion of low implied volatility, risk management scenarios after a question from Brendan O'Reilly 262626, and the rationale for using a shorter option expiry.

Details

• Accessing Premium Member Content Stephen Cox provided instructions for members to access member meeting recordings and trade details on the knowledge base of the website. They clarified that premium members have access to more content, and login is required to read all alerts, as some content might be restricted to lower membership levels (00:02:57). Recordings and trade information will be housed in a simplified spreadsheet with links to video and text recordings, and open trade articles will be continuously updated with management decisions (00:03:53).
• Dell Stock Analysis and Strategy Stephen Cox noted that Dell is on the watch list for long-term buy-and-hold investors, although they are not ready to buy yet due to an established short-term downtrend that needs to be broken (00:04:56). The main concern for the stock's recent fall is analysts' fear of squeezed margins, despite a significant backlog of orders for AI servers, due to the dramatically rising cost of memory chips (00:05:58). Stephen Vajda shared that they bought 300 shares of Dell the previous day, and Stephen Cox suggested applying a dollar-cost averaging strategy if the price drops further, although they prefer to wait for the technical downtrend to end (00:07:55).
• Dell Investment Strategies and Competitors Stephen Cox mentioned that for Dell, a simple buy-and-hold strategy is viable, or a long call strategy like a LEAP could be applied when the timing is right. They identified Dell's main competitors as HP and Super Micro Computer, noting that Dell appears to be more discounted at the moment (00:06:59). Tom Walker later asked for a review of the long call option strategy for Dell (00:42:28).
• Silver Trading Strategy Stephen Cox gave their take on silver, differentiating between trading and investing approaches. They stated that a trader would likely have sold yesterday or would sell today because the price failed to break through the previous high, while an investor would hold for the longer term (00:08:53). Stephen Cox predicted that if the trader's view prevails, silver could drop to around 65 before attacking the highs again, with a support level at 72 (00:09:57).
• Gold and Copper Market Analysis Stephen Cox noted that gold is different from silver; as both a trader and an investor, they are holding gold, anticipating an attack on the previous high after a small retracement. Regarding copper, which Tom Walker inquired about, Stephen Cox considered the recent creation of a new high to be a bullish sign (00:10:52). As a trader, they would wait for a retracement, possibly to the 558 level, before establishing a position, while they remain bullish on copper long-term due to expected supply shortages driven by EV and renewable energy demand (00:11:52).
• S\&P 500 Market Outlook Stephen Cox indicated that now is not the optimum time to sell put options on the S\&P 500 (00:12:57). They forecast a 10% gain for the S\&P 500 this year, barring unexpected geopolitical events or a significant rise in bond yields, and anticipate more frequent pullbacks this year than last, which would be the time to sell put options (00:14:08).
• S\&P 500 Put Option Strategy and Platforms Stephen Cox outlined the short put option strategy on SPY, choosing the $650 strike for a January 30th expiry, emphasizing that the trade is not ready to be placed yet due to weak premiums and low implied volatility (IV) (00:16:18). They explained that a 30% return on investment is the target for their challenge account using the IG index platform, which is tax-free in the UK and Ireland but unavailable in the US and some other geographies (00:15:13) (00:21:23). The Interactive Brokers (IBKR) platform is recommended for worldwide traders (00:16:18).
• Implied Volatility and Trade Timing Stephen Cox noted that the current IV rank for SPY is at five (on a scale of 0 to 100), indicating very low implied volatility, which results in weak option premiums (00:18:20). They are waiting for IV to increase before placing the first trade, though they recognize waiting for high IV (e.g., VIX closer to 20) might limit the number of trades placed throughout the year (00:19:25) (00:21:23). Brendan O'Reilly 262626 asked for the exact rule for trade timing, and Stephen Cox explained that while high IV is preferable, one could automate a blind strategy of placing a trade once a month (00:29:45).
• Risk Management and Loss Scenarios Brendan O'Reilly 262626 asked about loss scenarios and management of the short put trade (00:23:30). Stephen Cox clarified that back-testing shows straight wins 87% of the time, rolling out and down 6-7% of the time, and losses in the remaining 7% of cases, typically during significant market crashes like the dot-com bubble/9/11 and the financial crisis (00:25:38). The rule for the IG index platform is to roll out and down to a later expiry and lower strike if the S\&P drops to 6600 (from 6931), or exit the trade by walking away if the put option value gets up to three times the original premium taken in (00:26:40). For IBKR, a trader can choose to take assignment or roll out and down at 660, with more options like a repair strategy using call options available (00:27:46).
• Option Expiry and Theta Decay Brendan O'Reilly 262626 questioned the use of a shorter expiry than the usual five weeks (00:33:51). Stephen Cox explained that the optimum period for selling options is 30 to 45 days because the rate of decay of an option (Theta) increases dramatically closer to expiry, benefiting the seller. Stephen Cox's decision to target 12 monthly trades for the IG index challenge is why they are opting for shorter expiries, but for a personal IBKR account, they would advise sticking to the 30-45 day sweet spot (00:34:52).
• S\&P 500 Strike Selection and Comfort Stephen Cox re-emphasized selecting the 650 strike price for the short put on SPY, noting it is slightly more out-of-the-money than typical rules would dictate, to align the break-even point just below the previous support level in case of a market sell-off. They also highlighted that their risk management plan, which includes rolling out and down to the low 600s by the end of February if needed, provides comfort for placing the trade soon, even if premiums are currently low (00:41:26) (00:48:53).
• Long Call Option Strategy Details In response to Tom Walker's question, Stephen Cox detailed the long call option strategy for Dell, advising against placing it immediately. They recommend selecting an expiry greater than 90 days, ideally out to January 2027, and looking for a Delta of around 0.7 (00:43:38) (00:45:49). They clarified that this strategy controls the same number of shares for a quarter of the price compared to buying the shares outright, and explained that Delta indicates the contract's benefit per dollar increase in the stock price (00:44:41). They also briefly discussed the associated risks of a poor man's covered call strategy (00:46:50).

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