Yesterday, Monday, March 23, 2026, Wall Street experienced a dramatic "Relief Rally" that handed us a perfect opportunity to lock in our gains. The market sentiment shifted sharply after President Trump announced a five-day postponement of military strikes against Iranian power plants to allow for diplomatic talks. This news sent crude oil prices tumbling by over 10% and triggered the best day for the Dow Jones in six weeks.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are officially back in 100% cash after a clinical execution yesterday. We took advantage of the massive "volatility crush" to close our positions at our targets.

• Trade Closed: US 500 Short 6150 Put. Profit: 2.3%
• Trade Closed: XSP Short 615 Pu. Profit: 2.22%

Year-to-Date Performance: We are smashing it. Even with the S&P 500 falling and volatility spiking throughout March, our high-probability strategy continues to deliver.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.20% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Challenge (IBKR): Up +7.27% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -3.86% YTD.

The Math Wins: We maintain a 100% win record for 2026. This is the ultimate proof that the high-probability strategy works; while the index is down nearly 4% for the year, we have grown our capital by over 9%.

Current Action: We are already preparing our next trade for April. However, we will remain patient and wait to see if the recent market lows get a retest before we officially sell the next round of premium.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

The "Trump De-escalation" headlines provided a much-needed bounce for our top targets, but we aren't chasing this rally just yet.

• NVDA (Nvidia): Gained +1.70% ($175.64). The stock remains the primary vehicle for any market recovery, but it is still well off its highs.
• ORCL (Oracle): Recovered to $147.30. Despite the relief rally, investors are still weighing Oracle's massive AI infrastructure spending plans.
• CRM (Salesforce): Closed up near $195. Salesforce is showing a very clean "double bottom" technical pattern on the charts.
• Domestic Airlines: The 10%+ drop in oil (WTI back to $88) was a massive gift for Alaska Air (ALK) and the broader airline sector. If oil stays below $90, this becomes our #1 value play.

📅 Market Review for Monday, March 23, 2026

Overview: It was a classic "Risk-On" reversal. The S&P 500 jumped 1.15% for its best performance since the conflict began. The VIX Index (our "Fear Gauge") plummeted from an intraday high of 31 down to 24.36, which provided the "volatility crush" we needed to exit our put trades profitably.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Followed the risk-on sentiment, climbing back toward $71,000.
• Gold: Slipped back to $5,080 as the immediate need for a "war hedge" eased.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +1.15%, closing at 6,581.04.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +1.41%, finishing at 22,140.63.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Surged +1.38% (+631 points), closing at 46,208.47.
• WTI Crude Oil: Plunged -9.9% to settle at $88.52 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Yesterday, Friday, March 20, 2026, Wall Street capped off a grueling week as a "Quadruple Witching" expiration and surging energy costs pushed the major indices to their lowest levels of the year. Despite the broad market weakness, our defensive positioning allowed us to navigate the storm while the benchmark S&P 500 officially dipped into a nearly 5% loss for 2026.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are smashing it. Even with the S&P 500 falling and volatility rising, we are still winning on our trades. Year to date, we maintain a 100% win record. The high-probability strategy works.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +8.19% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +5.97% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -4.95% YTD.

US 500 Challenge Update: March 21, 2026

Current Trade Performance Our current US 500 short put trade is currently up 1.27% in just 16 days. Despite the S&P 500 dropping -1.51% yesterday to close at 6,506.45, our "Margin of Safety" has kept the position in positive territory. We are almost ready to lock in these gains as we head into the final week of March.

Strategy Resilience The gap between our performance and the index is now over 13%. This highlights the core strength of our approach: we don't need the market to go up to make money; we just need it to stay above our "floor." While others are panicking over a 5% index drop, we are collecting steady premiums.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

We remain in "patient observer" mode. We are not fans of buying stocks right now while the VIX remains elevated, but the valuation gap is getting hard to ignore.

• NVDA (Nvidia): Hit hard yesterday, falling -3.2% to close at $172.84. It is approaching our primary support zone.
• ORCL (Oracle): Slipped -1.15% ($153.73), giving back some of its post-earnings gains in the broad tech rout.
• CRM (Salesforce): Dropped -1.42% ($192.20), continuing to base near its 52-week lows.
• Domestic Airlines: Alaska Air (ALK) is trading at deep-value levels. We are simply waiting for an "off-ramp" in the Iran conflict to remove the fuel-price headwind before we buy.

📅 Market Review for Friday, March 20, 2026

Overview: It was a "Risk-Off" Friday. Crude oil prices stabilized near $98, but the damage to consumer sentiment was already done. The VIX Index spiked back toward 28, causing a broad re-pricing of risk across all sectors.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Fell -2.8% to $69,180 as the "flight to safety" favored the U.S. Dollar over digital assets.
• Gold: Rose to $5,120 per ounce, acting as the preferred hedge against geopolitical escalation.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -1.47%, closing at 6,508.45.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -1.88%, finishing at 21,674.52.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -0.98%, closing at 45,595.46.
• WTI Crude Oil: Settled slightly higher at $98.14 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Yesterday, Thursday, March 19, 2026, the markets faced another wave of volatility as Brent crude oil briefly spiked above $119 a barrel following intensified strikes on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. While U.S. indices pared their deepest losses in the final hour of trading, the "risk-off" mood remained, with fading rate-cut hopes adding further pressure to tech and industrial sectors.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are absolutely smashing it. Even with the S&P 500 falling and volatility rising, we are still winning on our trades. Year to date, we maintain a 100% win record. The high-probability strategy works.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +8.68% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +6.84% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -3.48% YTD.

US 500 Challenge Update: March 20, 2026

Current Trade Performance Our current US 500 short put trade is performing with incredible resilience, currently up 1.79% in just 15 days. Despite the index closing down -0.28% yesterday at 6,605.85, the "time decay" (theta) is working heavily in our favor. We are almost ready to lock in these gains and reset for the next opportunity.

The Probability Advantage Our outperformance is now hitting a massive gap. While the index is down roughly 3.5% for the year, our portfolios are deeply in the green. This is the power of distance-based trading; as long as the market doesn't fall off a cliff, we collect our rent.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

We are maintaining our disciplined stance. We are not jumping into stocks yet, but our "Buy List" is primed as valuations become more attractive.

• NVDA (Nvidia): Slipped -1.02% to close at $178.56. It is now trading well below its February highs, and we are nearing a major support level.
• ORCL (Oracle): Bucked the trend yesterday, gaining +1.71% ($155.52) as investors sought out its massive AI-infrastructure backlog.
• CRM (Salesforce): Edged up +0.32% ($194.97), showing relative strength in a weak tape.
• Alaska Air (ALK): Remains on watch as the "cheap" play in the domestic airline space, though we are waiting for oil to stabilize before entry.

📅 Market Review for Thursday, March 19, 2026

Overview: Crude oil continues to dictate the market's direction. The spike to $119 (Brent) and $99 (WTI) acted as a major drag on consumer staples and transportation. However, a late-day rally helped the major indices finish near their intraday highs, suggesting some underlying support is still present.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• VIX Index: Settled near 24.06, retreating from an intraday spike of 27.52. This pullback in volatility late in the session is exactly what helped our option premiums recover.
• WTI Crude Oil: Settled at $98.89 per barrel, up over 2.6% on the day.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -0.28%, closing at 6,605.85.
• Nasdaq Composite: Slipped -0.28%, finishing at 22,090.22.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped -0.39%, closing at 46,046.72.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details:

• S&P 500 Market Update and Current Trade Assessment: The S&P 500 futures market is down about 0.7%, following negative events including a poor US inflation report, unexpected commentary from Jerome Powell about rate cuts, and escalating conflict between Israel and Iran involving gas and oil field bombings (00:04:33). Despite the market selling off, the existing trade, which was up 2.2% yesterday, still holds a strong position with a 7% leeway before any risk of loss, and they expect to reach the full 2.3% profit, although it may take longer (00:05:49) (00:08:04). The increase in volatility has pushed up option premiums, which provides an opportunity for the upcoming April trade to secure a strike price of 5600, approximately 15% lower than the current market, due to the increased volatility (00:06:50).
• Risk Management Plan for Existing S&P 500 Trade: A risk management plan is in place to take evasive action if the S&P falls to 6,300, which would involve rolling the trade out and down to a later expiry, such as April, at a lower strike price (00:10:15). If the market decline accelerates, they could roll the position out to April at a 5,500 strike price, which is roughly 18% lower than the current market and would still result in a profit (00:11:19). The current trade is deemed to have a 97% chance of winning, but the roll-out plan ensures protection if the downturn continues (00:12:25).
• Upcoming April S&P 500 Trade Strategy: The next trade being lined up for April is targeted at a 5600 strike price, provided the volatility remains high. This strategy is designed to offer a 99% chance of winning and achieving a 2.5% profit for April (00:14:28). Waiting to open this trade allows for the current downtrend to play out, maximizing the benefit of current volatility to secure a lower break-even point for the new position (00:17:35) (00:52:34).
• Discussion on Margin Limits and Opening New Trades: Nanik Hotwani inquired about placing the April trades now to capitalize on the high VIX, but Stephen Cox advised against it due to risk management, suggesting keeping the margin below 40% for the Interactive Brokers account (00:14:28). The reason for maintaining margin space is to allow for volatility spikes, which increase the margin requirements for existing positions. It was recommended to wait until the current existing trade is closed, or at least until the middle of next week, before opening new positions for April (00:15:31).
• Advice for Non-Current S&P 500 Traders: For individuals not currently in the S&P 500 trade, members asked if they should enter now, and Stephen Cox advised waiting to see how the current selloff plays out, possibly holding off until the end of the day or until rhetoric around Middle East conflicts dies down. If oil prices pull back, they might consider putting on a trade near the original entry price of 6150 for a March expiry (00:17:35) (00:24:50).
• Guidance on Rolling Down a Short Put Position: A member asked for advice on short put positions expiring soon; Stephen Cox advised rolling down a 650 short put expiring tomorrow, emphasizing the need to avoid taking chances due to the potential for the market to fall further. Rolling out to the end of April would generate substantial premium and provide more wiggle room for the trade (00:19:51) (00:21:54). Stephen Cox believes the market may sell off 10% from its high to around 6,300, which would be the point they would consider going long again (00:20:54).
• Relationship between Volatility and Option Prices: A key learning point highlighted is the critical relationship between volatility (VIX) and option premiums, as high volatility increases the price of option premiums (selling insurance policies). The current reduction in the existing trade's profit is a direct result of the VIX kicking up due to bad news, increasing the cost to buy back the sold put option. Understanding this relationship is important for traders, as increased risk necessitates higher premiums (00:30:12).
• Clarification on Break-Even Price and Cash/Physical Settlement: A question regarding the outcome if the share price falls below the strike but stays above the break-even at expiration was addressed, clarifying that a partial profit is made in this scenario for cash-settled instruments like XSP and IG. For physical-settled assets like SPY, assignment of shares would occur at the strike price, but a profit would still be realized if the market price is above the break-even (00:32:31). The term "naked" was also addressed, confirming that selling a put option is technically a naked trade, requiring a cash buffer (margin) to secure the position (00:33:36).
• Analysis of Stock Picks (Fiserv, PayPal, Alaska Airlines): Stephen Cox reviewed Fiserv noting that competitive pressures and potential legislation (like credit card interest rate caps) make it a risky buy despite a substantial fall in price, and the stock is still technically in a downtrend (00:38:06). PayPal offers less upside unless a buyout occurs. Stephen Cox preferred Alaska Airlines as a domestic airline that is cheaper and less exposed to international conflict, provided oil prices stabilize (00:39:13). Generally, Stephen Cox is not a fan of buying any equities at the moment due to the prevailing risks and belief that stocks will get cheaper if the oil shock is prolonged (00:40:18).
• Strategy for Trading Silver: Stephen Cox advised that silver should be traded, not owned, and cautioned against the high volatility it exhibits, noting that it had dropped 12% today and 36% in a week (00:41:20). If someone insists on trading silver, they should use defined risk trades like bull call spreads with a 60-day duration, which limits the potential loss to the cost of the contract (00:43:24) (00:45:29). The example trade provided was risking $200 to make $300, which is considered a low probability trade (estimated 30% probability of profit) (00:44:26) (00:46:24).
• Currency Trading Advice: Michael Carroll suggested buying the euro and changing dollars back into the euro for Interactive Brokers users whose base currency is the euro, and Stephen Cox agreed that this may be a good trade given the circumstances (00:48:35). Nanik Hotwani also commented on the inconsistency of Interactive Brokers' calculation of cost basis for assigned positions, noting that the strike price might be used instead of calculating the break-even by including the premium received (00:49:35).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

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• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

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Yesterday, Tuesday, March 17, 2026, Wall Street continued its recovery as the Federal Reserve opened its two-day policy meeting. Despite crude oil ticking back above the $100 mark, investors appeared to be "looking past" the immediate Iran conflict, focusing instead on strong corporate news and the potential for a stabilizing Fed commentary today.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are absolutely smashing it this year. Our disciplined approach to high-probability trading continues to widen the gap between our returns and the broader market.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.12% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +7.25% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -1.88% YTD.

US 500 Challenge Update: March 18, 2026

Current Trade Performance Our current US 500 short put trade is performing exceptionally well, currently up 2.2% in just 13 days. As the index rose +0.25% yesterday and the VIX dropped another 5% to 22.37, the premium is melting away exactly as planned. We are almost ready to lock in these gains.

The Probability Advantage Our ability to stay profitable while the benchmark is nearly 2% in the red for the year highlights the resilience of this strategy. We aren't just surviving this volatility; we are thriving in it.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

We are maintaining our cautious stance on the broader equity market, but the "shopping list" is becoming more attractive by the day.

• Domestic Airlines: We are seeing significant deep-value opportunities here as fuel-price fears have reached a fever pitch. Alaska Air (ALK) remains our top pick for a domestic recovery play.
• Tech Leaders (The "Big Three"): We are on high alert to buy NVDA, ORCL, and CRM.

• ORCL announced Java 26, further cementing its AI infrastructure dominance.
  ​The "Wait" Strategy: We are strictly waiting for a clear sign of an off-ramp in the Iran war before we commit our long-term capital. We want to see the "geopolitical tax" removed before we start the next major accumulation phase.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Overview: The "Fear Gauge" (VIX) fell to 22.37 yesterday, its lowest level in over a week. This relaxation in market stress allowed the S&P 500 to notch its second consecutive gain, even as energy prices remained elevated.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +0.25%, closing at 6,716.09.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +0.47%, finishing at 22,479.53.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +0.10%, closing at 46,993.26.
• WTI Crude Oil: Settled higher near $96.95 per barrel as supply threats persisted.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Happy St. Patrick’s Day! ☘️ Whether you’re celebrating in Dublin or further afield, we hope you have a fantastic day. It’s a sea of green in more ways than one today, as the markets followed suit with a strong start to the week.

Yesterday, Monday, March 16, 2026, Wall Street saw its strongest performance in over a month as a sharp pullback in oil prices triggered a massive "relief rally." Investors cheered as WTI crude fell toward the $93 level, easing fears of an uncontainable energy shock and allowing the major indices to reclaim significant technical ground.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategy continues to smash the benchmark. While the broader market is struggling in negative territory for the year, our disciplined approach to high-probability trading is delivering exceptional results.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +8.14% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -2.13% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +6.29% YTD.

US 500 Challenge Update: March 17, 2026

Current Trade Performance Our current US 500 short put trade swung into a profit of 1.2% yesterday. The combination of the index rising +1.01% and a significant contraction in volatility allowed our premiums to decay rapidly in our favor. We intend letting this trade run a little longer until we get to circa 2.3% ROI for this trade.

The Road Ahead We are beating the S&P 500 by a wide margin. Our ability to generate positive returns while the index is down over 2% for the year is a testament to the "Margin of Safety" we build into every trade. We are well on track to smash our 30% ROI challenge for this year.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

We are remaining patient with our cash, as we are not fans of buying most stocks right now given the macro climate. However, our shopping list is finalized and we are waiting for the right moment to strike.

• Domestic Airlines (Value Play): High fuel costs have hit this sector hard, making domestic carriers like Alaska Air (ALK) look incredibly cheap on a fundamental basis.
• Tech Powerhouses: We are very close to pulling the trigger on NVDA, ORCL, and CRM. These three represent the "crown jewels" of AI and enterprise software.
• The "Off-Ramp" Catalyst: We are strictly waiting for a clear sign of a diplomatic off-ramp in the war with Iran before committing long-term capital. Once the geopolitical risk subsides, we expect a violent re-rating higher.

📅 Market Review for Monday, March 16, 2026

Overview: The "Oil Tax" on the economy eased yesterday, providing a much-needed lift to equities. The VIX Index saw a significant pivot, dropping from the 27–28 range toward 23.51, which served as the primary engine for yesterday's price recovery.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +1.01%, closing at 6,699.35.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +1.20%, finishing at 22,374.18.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +1.16%, closing at 47,100.05.
• WTI Crude Oil: Fell -3.24% to settle at $93.88 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Closing Prices)

• CRM (Salesforce): Up +2.54% ($197.72).
• NVDA (Nvidia): Up +1.63% ($183.19).
• ALK (Alaska Air): Up +1.11% ($38.42).
• ORCL (Oracle): Up +0.55% ($155.97).

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Yesterday, Friday, March 13, 2026, Wall Street faced a volatile "Friday the 13th" session. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to pressure the global economy as oil prices spiked toward the $100/barrel mark. This served as a significant headwind for major indices, leading to a third consecutive week of losses for the S&P 500.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategies continue to highlight the massive benefits of high-probability trading in a falling market. While the benchmark index retreats, our capital remains protected and our year-to-date returns are substantially ahead.

• S&P 500 Index: Down -3.11% YTD.
• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +6.76% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +4.84% YTD.

Market Performance vs. Strategy Resilience The S&P 500 dropped another 0.61% yesterday, closing at 6,632.19. However, our position remains incredibly resilient, down only a marginal 0.16%. This is a textbook example of the benefits of High-Probability Index Trading: while the market continues to slide, our "delta" (price sensitivity) is cushioned by our distance from the strike price.

The Safety Margin As we look toward the March 31st expiration, the math remains firmly on our side:

• Current Level: 6,632.19.
• Breakeven Buffer: The S&P 500 can fall an additional 7.31% from current levels before the trade is at risk at expiry.
• Probability of Profit: This trade maintains a robust statistical advantage of over 90%.

The Outlook We remain confident in the original trade thesis and the current risk-reward profile:

• Target Return: We still anticipate yielding a circa 2% ROI on this trade before expiration.
• Current Action: No action required. We are letting the probability and the clock work in our favor.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

While we are generally not fans of buying stocks right now due to the macro uncertainty, we are identifying significant value emerging in specific pockets of the market.

• Domestic Airlines: This sector has become exceptionally cheap due to the spike in fuel costs. We are specifically looking at names like Alaska Air (ALK), which are trading at levels that historically represent long-term value.
• Tech Leaders: We are also getting very close to pulling the trigger on NVDA, ORCL, and CRM. These companies remain best-in-class, but we are exercising extreme patience.
• The Catalyst: We are waiting for a clear sign that there is an "off-ramp" regarding the war in Iran. Once we see a path toward de-escalation, we expect these names to move sharply higher, and we will be ready to deploy our cash.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Rose +1.00% to close near $71,173, showing some "digital gold" resilience despite the equity sell-off.
• VIX Index: Settled slightly lower at 26.93 after a volatile week, but remains elevated as investors brace for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -0.61%, closing at 6,632.19.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -0.93%, finishing at 22,105.36.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -0.26%, closing at 46,558.47.
• WTI Crude Oil: Jumped over 3% to reach $99.31 per barrel as supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified.Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Yesterday, Thursday, March 12, 2026, the markets faced renewed selling pressure as global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East resurfaced. While specific hardware names like Dell showed relative strength, the broader indices retreated as the VIX spiked, signaling a return of "risk-off" sentiment.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategies continue to deliver massive outperformance. Even with the latest market sell-off, our disciplined approach has kept our capital protected and our returns well ahead of the benchmark.

• US 500 Strategy: Up +6.69% YTD (vs. S&P 500 loss of -2.52%).
• XSP/SPY Strategy: Up +4.81% YTD.

US 500,XSP/SPY Challenge Updates:

Market Context The S&P 500 dropped 1.52% yesterday, causing our position to slip slightly into the red, currently down 0.24%. This move was accompanied by the VIX jumping back to 28, which temporarily inflated option premiums and suppressed our "paper" profit.

The Resilience of the Strategy While the daily fluctuation isn't ideal to look at, the structural integrity of the trade remains remarkably high:

• Margin of Safety: The S&P 500 could fall another 8% from yesterday’s close before we reach our breakeven point at the March 31st expiration.
• Statistical Edge: Based on yesterday’s close, the trade still maintains a 93% probability of profit.

The Outlook Volatility spikes like this are part of the process when selling puts. We are staying focused on the end goal:

• Target Return: We still expect to realize a return of approximately 2% ROI on this trade by month-end.
• Current Action: No action required. We are not reacting to short-term swings and will continue to let the trade run its course.

🚀 Earnings & Stock Spotlight

• Oracle (ORCL): Despite a massive AI-driven earnings beat earlier in the week, the stock faced a "sell the news" reaction in the broader sell-off, closing lower at $151.56. However, the long-term story remains intact with its $553B backlog.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): A rare bright spot yesterday. Dell climbed +1.72% to close at $149.91, as investors continue to reward its record AI server demand and dividend growth.
• NVDA (Nvidia): Faced pressure alongside the Nasdaq, slipping as the market recalibrates AI valuations amidst rising energy costs and a higher-for-longer rate environment.
  
  We are not a huge fan of buying individual stocks at the moment. However, we do believe buying opportunities are being created in select software names, NVDA and domestic airline stocks when the conflict in Iran ends.

📅 Market Review for Thursday, March 12, 2026

Overview: Wall Street's recovery hit a snag yesterday. Worries about the escalating conflict in the Middle East sent oil prices back toward the $100/barrel mark, acting as a tax on both consumers and corporations.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Slipped back below the $70,000 mark as traders moved away from speculative assets during the equity slide.
• VIX Index: Surged over 12% to reach 27.29 (peaking near 28 intraday), reflecting the "fear premium" returning to the option market.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -1.52%, closing at 6,672.32.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -1.80%, finishing at 22,311.98.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -1.60% (-739 points), closing at 46,677.85.
• WTI Crude Oil: Rebounded sharply toward $100.00 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

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Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details:

• Role of Volatility in Option Prices: Stephen Cox began the market discussion by emphasizing the importance of volatility, specifically the VIX (implied volatility), in determining option prices. They reiterated the strategy adage, "when the VIX is high, it's time to buy. When the VIX is low, it's time to go," treating the VIX as a contrarian indicator (00:07:52).
• VIX and Option Selling Strategy: When the VIX spikes, option premiums become very pricey, which is beneficial for sellers using a put option strategy (00:08:53). They explained that a recent VIX spike resulted in a temporary loss for their trade, but they accounted for a large "wiggle room" for the strategy to go wrong (00:10:11).
• Impact of Time Decay and Volatility Drop on Profit: Stephen Cox noted that despite the S&P 500 share price being lower than when they entered the trade, they were still in profit. This profit resulted from time decay making the options cheaper and a drop in implied volatility, which also lowered the option prices (00:12:13).
• Market Outlook and S\&P 500 Trend: Stephen Cox stated that the current situation, with crude oil remaining stubbornly high due to the ongoing conflict, makes a meaningful rally in the S\&P 500 difficult (00:13:12). Patrick mckeon's assessment that the S\&P 500 is starting to turn over was acknowledged, with the market being in a long-term uptrend but a short-term downtrend (00:14:10).
• Strategic Management of the US 500 Trade: Regarding the US 500, Stephen Cox currently intends to let the trade run until the premium drops to 8. However, if the market rallies and the premium drops to 15 or 16 by tomorrow afternoon, they might exit the trade early to lock in gains before the weekend due to current volatility and uncertainty (00:16:07).
• Strategic Management of the XSP Trade: For the XSP trade, the limit order is set at 75 or 08, but if the premium drops to 140 or 150 by midday tomorrow, they might close the trade early (00:17:05). This strategy of locking in a decent profit tomorrow is due to exceptional times involving a war, rallying oil prices, and issues in the credit markets (00:18:08).
• Discussion on Short-Term Puts and Strategy Consistency: Michael Carroll asked if it would be advisable to use shorter-term weekly puts due to volatility, but Stephen Cox advised sticking to the current strategy (00:19:02). They reaffirmed that the current time frame is already reduced to about 30 days or less, rather than the normal 45 days (00:19:59).
• Advice on a Put Spread and Break-Even: Following Michael Carroll's query about their 670/660 ratio put spread, Stephen Cox advised rolling out and down one of the 660 contracts (00:19:59). This advice was based on the projected opening of the market and the risk that a 2% drop would place the price below the 660 strike, making it difficult to roll out and down later (00:20:59).
• Outlook on Gold and Silver: Stephen Cox noted that gold is likely to mark time because the US dollar is strengthening as a safe haven. They would not trade gold, preferring to own it, but suggested that silver is a different ballgame and should be traded rather than invested due to its exponential moves (00:21:50).
• Stock Buying Opportunities and Oil Conflict: The current stock market decline is creating buying opportunities, assuming the US economy remains healthy and the conflict is short-lived. If the conflict is short-lived, the market is expected to rally until the end of the year (00:22:52).
• Specific Equity Recommendations (Software and AI): Stephen Cox reiterated previous stock recommendations, including Oracle, as its downtrend appears over and demand for its AI side is strong, and Nvidia as a value buy. CRM was also mentioned as a stock where fears are likely overblown (00:23:58).
• Airlines and Fuel-Intensive Business Analysis: Michael Carroll's idea of buying Alaska Airlines was discussed, noting that high oil prices negatively impact airlines as fuel is a major cost (00:23:58). If the conflict is short-lived and oil prices drop, airline stocks could see a massive rebound, and other fuel-intensive transportation stocks like FedEx and DHL are also worth considering (00:25:02).
• Geopolitical Discussion on the Conflict Duration: The group discussed the likely duration of the conflict, with Stephen Cox asserting that it makes no economic sense for anyone for it to continue for long, anticipating that peace will prevail (00:27:22). Michael Carroll mentioned the substantial cost of the war to the US (around $10 billion), adding that the US cannot maintain that cost (00:28:29).
• Perspectives on Geopolitical Intervention and Market Impact: Nanik Hotwani suggested that China might pressure Iran to back off due to China's own economic pain and their relationship with Iran (00:29:34). Stephen Gavin provided an insight from the hospitality sector in Dubai, where many people have been furloughed until September 1st, suggesting they anticipate a slow period (00:30:31).
• S\&P 500 Downside Risk and Support Levels: Stephen Cox prepared the group for a potential 10% peak-to-trough drop in the S\&P 500, down to 6,300, depending on the conflict's duration (00:32:31). They identified the next clear line of support at about 6,600, which is the 200-day moving average (00:15:11).
• Risk Management and Strategy Comfort: Stephen Cox demonstrated the strength of their XSP strategy, showing that even if forced to roll out and down (at 6,300), they could push the strike down to 560 for the end of April (00:32:31). This deep contingency plan offers comfort that they should be fine even if the market goes "pear-shaped" (00:34:42).
• Refined Airline Stock Recommendations: Based on the geopolitical discussion, Stephen Cox suggested that domestically oriented airlines like Alaska Airlines, Ryanair, and Southwest Airlines might be a better choice. This is because the appetite for flying through the Middle East might be low over the next while, impacting international carriers' revenue (00:35:47).
• US Bond Yields and TLT Put Option Trade: US bond yields are spiraling out, indicating the market is pricing in that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates due to oil's inflationary pressures (00:36:49). Stephen Cox mentioned that selling a short put option on TLT (the 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF) is back on the cards for their IBKR account (00:37:48).
• TLT Trade Pricing and Strike Selection: Michael Carroll provided the current price for the TLT 86 put option (April 17th expiry) as 111, representing a 1.3% return (00:37:48). Stephen Cox suggested choosing the 85 strike instead to account for the possibility of yields creeping up to 4.5% due to oil price inflation (00:38:55).
• Question on XSP Premium and Profit Taking: Nanik Hotwani asked if they should close the XSP trade if they reach 65% to 70% of the premium today. Stephen Cox confirmed that if they can buy back the premium at 140 or 150 today or tomorrow, they should absolutely take it off the table (00:39:59).
• Opinion on Oil (UNG) Trading Strategy: Stephen Cox is personally trading oil via bear put spreads but will not broadcast it as a trade due to its low probability and defined risk. A bear put spread on USO, for example, buying the $100 put and selling the $90 put, is a way to bet on the conflict being short-lived, though it has less than a 30% chance of winning (00:40:52) (00:42:44).
• Forex Trading on IBKR vs. IG: Nanik Hotwani asked about trading Forex on IBKR. Stephen Cox explained that it can be done through currency CFDs on IBKR, requiring account approval and configuration (00:43:41).
• Alternative Currency Strategy (Cash Conversion): An alternative to trading currency pairs is converting cash to another currency if one feels the original currency will weaken. For instance, converting US dollars to euros if the dollar is expected to weaken, and then converting back when it has weakened, is a simple cash management strategy (00:45:46).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call or face to face strategy session.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Yesterday, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, Wall Street entered a phase of calm consolidation as the extreme geopolitical theatre of the previous 48 hours began to recede. While the major indices posted slight declines, the underlying market structure remained stable, allowing our option positions to thrive.

📈 Why the Markets Rebounded

The primary catalysts for this remarkable recovery include:

1. G7 Intervention: Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors held an emergency meeting to signal "managed urgency." By discussing a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves, they successfully cooled fears of a global energy shock.
2. Geopolitical Assurances: Market sentiment improved significantly following President Trump's announcement that the US Navy will escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, backed by government-provided political risk insurance.
3. Oil & VIX Retraction: Crude oil has retreated back below the $100/barrel mark, and the VIX has dropped back toward 25, easing the pressure on equity futures.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategy continues to demonstrate its strength during high-stress environments. Both our active challenge trades moved significantly into the green yesterday.

• US 500 (IG Portfolio) Short 6150 March 31st Put: Up +0.52%.
• XSP (IBKR Portfolio) Short 615 March 31st Put: Up +0.54%.

Market Snapshot: The S&P 500 closed down a marginal 0.21% yesterday—a non-event compared to earlier volatility. Our positions are currently sitting at a total average profit of 0.54% for this specific leg.

The Outlook: As the VIX continues its descent toward the 20 level, we expect option premiums to contract sharply, allowing us to exit at our 75% profit target.

The Probability Advantage: The trade has a 97% probability of profit and the S&P 500 can fall ip to 9% in the next 3 weeks!
Our US 500 Challenge is now up 7.55% YTD, while the S&P 500 Index is down -0.94% for the same period.

🚀 Earnings Spotlight: Oracle (ORCL)

Oracle stole the spotlight yesterday after releasing its Q3 2026 results. The share price jumped nearly 10% in extended trading following an "exceptional" beat-and-raise performance.

• The Numbers: Oracle reported adjusted EPS of $1.79 (vs. $1.70 expected) on revenue of $17.2 billion.
• AI Surge: The primary driver was Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue, which skyrocketed 84% year-over-year to $4.9 billion.
• The Backlog: Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged to a staggering $553 billion, up 325% from last year, primarily due to massive AI contracts.
• Future Outlook: Management raised its FY2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion, signaling that the AI infrastructure boom is far from over.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Overview: The "Panic Peak" has passed. Oil prices tumbled by roughly 15% (WTI settling near $80.31) as traders reacted to the de-escalation of the Iran conflict and potential trade route reopening.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Recovered to close above the psychological $70,000 mark.
• EUR/USD: Steady near 1.16

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -0.21%, closing at 6,781.48.
• Nasdaq Composite: Slipped -0.34%, finishing at 22,597.10.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped -0.20%, closing at 48,810.55.
• WTI Crude Oil: Plunged -15.5% to settle at $80.31 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie