Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details

• New Face-to-Face Strategy Call Option in Dublin: An additional way to conduct strategy calls, including face-to-face meetings at the Dublin airport offices, will be available starting Monday. Those interested must book their time slot through the knowledge base by clicking the chat bubble and selecting the option to schedule a face-to-face strategy call (00:03:03). The face-to-face meetings are available from 9 am to 5 pm, Monday to Friday (00:04:22).
• Eligibility for Face-to-Face Meetings: The in-person strategy call option is available to anyone on the premium mentorship plan, and they are entitled to swap their online call for an in-person meeting, potentially once a week. Members on the Pro Plan, which is the lower tier, would need to pay an additional fee for a one-to-one meeting (00:05:19).

• S&P 500 Trading Strategy and Patience: The S&P 500 has been trading sideways, rolling between 6,800 and 7,000 since January, which is leading the team to wait before placing the short put strategy trade. They are holding off because selling an insurance policy (short put) yields a higher premium when the S&P is down on the support end of the range, meaning they are waiting for the market to come down to them (00:07:09). The uncertainty around potential tariff turmoil was another reason for holding out and staying out of the market for the moment (00:08:14).
• Market Correction Forecast and Risk Management: A significant correction of 14% to 15% due to tariff turmoil is not expected again, though a 4% or 5% correction is possible (00:08:14). The jobs data remains the critical indicator to monitor, as major weakening in job numbers could negatively impact the economy and corporate earnings. A revisit to the 200-day moving average, around 6,540, is a possibility and would likely signal a healthy influx of fresh money back into the market (00:09:19) (00:23:18).
• Ratio Put Spread Strategy for Interactive Brokers Users: A ratio put spread, which is a bear put spread plus an additional put underneath it, was suggested as a viable strategy for Interactive Brokers users (00:12:37). This strategy profits if the market falls, as long as it does not fall too much, and the example provided (buying the 670 put and selling twice as many of the 660 put) generates a credit and offers a 95% chance of profit with a break-even point at 646 (00:13:41). The maximum potential profit for this example trade is $\$1,300$, with a worst-case scenario income of $\$316$ (00:14:38).
• Rationale for Holding Off on Short Put Trade: To achieve the target of 2.5% premium per month on the IG platform, the current market price would require placing the trade at the 6,400 strike. Just four days prior, they could have achieved the same premium at the 6,150 strike, which had a much lower risk; therefore, patience is advised to wait for a significant down day to achieve a better entry point, such as 6,200 or 6,100 (00:15:42).
• Interpreting Nvidia's Earnings and Share Performance: Despite Nvidia reporting earnings per share of 162 (versus the 153 estimate) and revenue that was \$2 billion higher than expected, the shares were only up 1% (00:16:45). This muted reaction is due to market concerns about the sustainability of some tech sectors, such as software, where companies like Oracle and Salesforce face questions regarding the long-term need for their services as AI begins writing code on its own (00:17:54). The worry is that if Nvidia’s clients come under pressure, future orders for their chips could be canceled (00:18:58).
• Market Reaction to Heavy AI Investment Spending: The market is currently focused on how companies, such as Amazon, will monetize their large investments in AI infrastructure, causing a drop in share prices after earnings. This mirrors the history of Meta's share price drop when they heavily invested in the metaverse, as the investment community needs to see a clear vision of how the spending will increase revenue and profitability (00:20:02). Although AI is expected to lead to massive costs savings, efficiencies, and productivity, the only potential downside is the cost to people’s jobs, which is a major debate, making the monitoring of job data critical (00:22:13).
• Recommendation for Silver Trading: Silver is currently trading at the higher end of its expected band, leading to the opinion that one should be a seller of silver with the view of potentially re-entering the position if it drops back down to the lower end. This strategy is suggested because the recent rise in silver was influenced by gold's jump on the potential for tariff turmoil, which has since appeared to de-escalate (00:24:19).
• Focus on Index Trading Over Individual Equities: Given the anticipated disruption from AI, the current risk of investing in individual equities is high because it is unclear how AI will impact every stock for the better or worse. Sticking with index trades is considered smarter and safer until the impact of AI settles down, though they are preparing to take a position in Dell after its earnings report (00:25:25). Salesforce, which recently reported earnings, beat expectations but saw a 1% decline due to disappointing forward-looking guidance (00:27:37).
• Discussion on PayPal and Potential Takeover: PayPal is not considered overvalued based on the equity scan tool and could see its price return to \$60 or \$70 on the potential for a takeover by Stripe (00:27:37) (00:32:00). For those who have losing stock positions in PayPal, the options edge course outlines a stock repair toolkit strategy, such as buying a call option (to control another 100 shares) and then selling two covered calls to effectively pay for the purchase (00:28:36) (00:30:53).
• Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Technically speaking, Bitcoin is in a clear downtrend that has not yet broken, and there is a high chance that the current low will be retested, which could lead to another 20% drop to 55,000 if the current support does not hold (00:33:10). Conversely, if consolidation begins, the price could rise 10% to 15% to test the upper end of the downtrend channel (00:34:26).
• IG Platform Limitations for Complex Option Spreads: When using the IG platform, creating a complex option spread, such as a bull put spread, is inefficient because the platform does not recognize or consolidate the two separate trades, thereby charging a high margin for both. This high margin makes it less efficient than using Interactive Brokers for ratio spreads and similar strategies (00:36:20).
• Call Option Strategy on IG: Buying call options is possible on IG, but it is not recommended at the top of a trading range, as it is only advisable to buy calls when the market has pulled back to a support level. Statistically, the odds of success drop significantly when switching from a put-selling strategy to a buy-call strategy, as the market must move up to generate a profit (00:37:23).
• Euro-Dollar Analysis and Currency Outlook: The Euro-Dollar exchange rate is influenced by interest rates and inflation, and given the current strength of the US economy, there is no pressing need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, despite inflation being slightly sticky (00:38:22). The dollar is expected to stabilize, with the Euro potentially weakening to 120 or 125 against the dollar at the high end, but only aggressive rate cuts might cause significant change, which is unlikely until inflation drops below 2% (00:39:21).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call or face to face strategy session.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

I’m excited to announce that we have officially opened our new face-to-face meeting space at Spaces Airport Central, right at Dublin Airport!

While online mentoring is as strong as ever, I know many of you value that in-person connection. Whether you're flying out or just want a professional change of scenery, you can now book your sessions with me at our new hub.

Membership Access:

• 💎 Premium Members: 1 session per week (Online or Face-to-Face) is included in your plan.
• 🚀 Pro Members: You can schedule an Online or Face-to-Face session for a flat rate of €100 per meeting.

Important:

You must book a timeslot if you want a face to face strategy session.

Location & Parking:

• 📍 Address: Spaces, 1st Floor, Building Two, Dublin Airport, K67 E2H3.
• 🚗 Parking: Use the Terminal 2 Short Term Car Park—it’s right beside us.
• 🚶 How to find us: Park in T2, take the elevator to Level 0, turn left out of the lifts and cross the road. You will see Building Two (Spaces) immediately on your left.

Bring a friend along if you want to introduce them to the world of trading—the coffee is on us! ☕️

Book your slot here:

See you at the airport!

Stephen

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Yesterday, Tuesday, February 24, 2026, the markets staged a robust recovery as the previous day’s "tariff tantrum" cooled and "AI anxiety" eased. Investors rotated back into technology and hardware, helping the major indices snap their recent losing streaks ahead of today's high-stakes Nvidia earnings report.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We remain out of all trades, holding a 100% track record for 2026. While we have sat on the sidelines during the recent turbulence, our portfolios continue to significantly outperform the benchmark.

• US 500 (IG Portfolio): Up +5.44% YTD.
• IBKR Option Portfolio: Up +3.72% YTD.
• S&P 500 Benchmark: Up +0.65% YTD.

Beating the Index: While the S&P 500 has clawed back into positive territory for the year (+0.65%), our portfolios are comfortably ahead. We are maintaining our wait-and-see approach as we wait for the "post-Nvidia" volatility crush to present our next high-probability entry. We will alert you when the time comes.

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist Update

• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): The standout performer, surging +8.77% ($213.84) following reports of a major multi-year AI chip supply deal with Meta Platforms.
• PYPL (PayPal): Continued its momentum, jumping +6.74% ($47.02) as buyout speculation and unusually high trading volume suggest institutional interest is intensifying.
• CRM (Salesforce): Rebounded strongly, gaining +4.13% ($185.51) as the software sector saw a broad recovery.
• DELL & NVDA: DELL gained a modest +0.54% ($119.78), while NVDA ticked up +0.68% ($192.85) as the world holds its breath for their earnings report today.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Overview: Wall Street rebounded broadly as "AI-disruption" fears eased. The afternoon was dominated by positioning ahead of the Nvidia earnings and the State of the Union speech. A notable shift toward "HALO" trades (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) also provided support for value names like J.M. Smucker.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Dipped -3.04% to close near $63,065. Despite the price drop, institutional inflows into Bitcoin-focused funds reportedly rose 15% this week.
• EUR/USD: Steady near 1.1883 as traders awaited more clarity on the U.S. tariff situation.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +0.77%, closing at 6,890.05.
• Nasdaq Composite: Rose +1.04%, finishing at 22,863.68.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +0.76% (+370 points), closing at 49,174.49.
• Gold: Settled near $5,050 per ounce.
• Silver: Consolidated near $82.00 per ounce.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Yesterday, Monday, February 23, 2026, Wall Street faced a sharp "Tariff Tantrum" after the administration ramped up global tariffs to 15% over the weekend. This aggressive move triggered a broad liquidation as investors reassessed global trade stability and inflationary risks.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are currently out of all trades and holding a 100% track record for 2026. While the broader market has struggled, our disciplined strategy continues to deliver significant outperformance.

• US 500 (IG Portfolio): Up +5.44% YTD.
• IBKR Option Portfolio: Up +3.72% YTD.
• S&P 500 Benchmark: Down -0.11% YTD.

Beating the Index: At a time when the benchmark S&P 500 is in negative territory for the year, our portfolios are showing robust positive returns. We are taking a strict wait-and-see approach given the tariff uncertainty. We will alert you when the time comes.

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist Update

Yesterday’s sell-off provided a significant "discount," but we remain patient for technical confirmation.

• PYPL (Spotlight): Interestingly, PayPal bucked the downward trend and rallied over +6% yesterday. This move was driven by reports of unsolicited takeover interest from major financial institutions. If these rumors are correct, there could be considerable upside as the stock currently trades at a deep valuation discount.

📅 Market Review for Monday, February 23, 2026

Overview: The "Liberation Day" tariff saga entered a more aggressive chapter, sending the Dow Jones down over 800 points. Investors also rotated out of "AI losers"—companies deemed vulnerable to disruption—creating a distinct split within the tech sector.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Slumped nearly -4.8% to trade near $64,500 as tariff uncertainty dampened the appetite for risk.
• EUR/USD: Rose slightly to 1.1894 as the U.S. Dollar faced a mixed reaction to the news.
• Gold: The big winner. Surged over +2.7% to settle near $5,200 per ounce as investors fled to safety.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -1.04%, closing at 6,837.75.
• Nasdaq Composite: Slipped -1.12%, finishing at 22,630.41.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Plunged -1.66% (-821 points), closing at 48,969.77.
• Silver: Exploded higher to reach $86.77 per ounce.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• PYPL (PayPal): Up +6.21% ($44.71). The top performer in the S&P 500 on buyout buzz.

• NVDA (Nvidia): Down -4.28% ($181.55). Volatility is peaking ahead of its crucial earnings report this Wednesday.
• NFLX (Netflix): Down -3.37% ($76.02). Watchlist: Facing heavy selling pressure, nearing a potential entry.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Down -2.71% ($118.96). Watchlist: Retesting support levels after the tariff news.
• MA (Mastercard): Down -1.63% ($511.74). Watchlist: Impacted by fears of slowing global spending.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Yesterday, Friday, February 20, 2026, U.S. markets staged a late-week recovery as investors cheered a landmark Supreme Court ruling striking down global tariffs. This legal victory provided a vital offset to a lukewarm GDP print, allowing the major indices to snap their multi-week losing streaks.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We have officially concluded all of our February positions. We are currently out of all trades and are proud to report a 100% track record so far this year.

• TLT Short $86 Put: This position officially expired at the close on Friday in full profit, realizing a gain of 0.85%.
• US 500 (IG Index): Closed earlier this week for a realized profit of 2.98%.
• XSP (IBKR): Closed earlier this week for a realized gain of 1.58%.

Stay tuned for our next trades. As usual, we are waiting for the high-probability setups to emerge and we will alert you when the time comes.

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist Update

With a clean slate on our options desk, we are focused on deploying capital into our long-term targets.

• DELL, NVDA & AMD: All three saw a bounce on Friday as the hardware sector led the recovery. DELL jumped +2.70% ($121.42), while NVDA gained +0.94% ($189.67). We are watching for sustained support levels to finalize our entries.
• MSFT, NFLX, AMZN, and MA (Mastercard). We are looking for these quality compounders to reach our technical "buy zones" this week.
• Wait & See: For CRM, PYPL, and ORCL, we are looking for the "lower low" pattern to definitively break.

📅 Market Review for Friday, February 20, 2026

Overview: Markets opened lower after Q4 GDP came in weak at +1.4%. However, stocks surged in the afternoon following the Supreme Court's ruling against the administration's broad tariff authority. While new executive orders were issued, investors focused on the potential for $175B in corporate refunds from original levies.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Gained +1.37% to trade near $67,331. Despite the broader "Extreme Fear" in sentiment indices, institutional support remains firm.
• EUR/USD: Rose toward 1.1910 as the weak GDP print weighed on the U.S. Dollar.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +0.69%, closing at 6,909.51.
• Nasdaq Composite: Rose +0.90%, finishing at 22,886.73.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +0.44%, closing at 49,612.66.
• Gold: Reclaimed the $5,100 mark, closing at $5,109 per ounce.
• Silver: Surged over 8% to settle at $84.57 per ounce, tracking its first weekly gain in a month.
• WTI Crude Oil: Settled slightly higher at $66.48 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• AMZN (Amazon): Up +2.60% ($206.38). Led the Dow as investors weighed potential tariff refunds.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +2.70% ($121.42). A major beneficiary of the court’s tariff decision.
• AAPL (Apple): Up +1.54% ($241.22). Afternoon rally as trade uncertainty eased slightly.
• NVDA (Nvidia): Up +0.94% ($189.67). Recovering ground ahead of high-stakes earnings this week.
• MSFT (Microsoft): Up +0.31% ($399.70). Watchlist: Finding support at the $400 level.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Yesterday, Thursday, February 19, 2026, Wall Street’s recent momentum stalled as a cautious outlook from Walmart and hawkish signals from the Fed minutes dampened investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions also weighed on the tape, leading to a broad "risk-off" session across all three major indices.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We have some fantastic news to share regarding our active trades. On Wednesday, we took advantage of the price action to lock in gains on our primary index positions.

• US 500 (IG Index): Closed on Wednesday for a realised profit of 2.98% in just 15 days.
• XSP (IBKR): Closed on Wednesday for a realised gain of 1.58% in 15 days.
• TLT Short $86 Put: This option expires tonight in the IBKR account. It will realise a gain of 0.85%. There is nothing to do here; the option will expire worthless and disappear from the account, with the full gain realised in our cash balance.

Performance Note: Our US 500 portfolio is now up 5.44% for the year. Considering the S&P 500 is only up 0.25% over the same period, this significantly demonstrates our outperformance through disciplined, high-probability trading.

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist Update

We continue to stay patient as the market undergoes this healthy rotation.

• DELL, NVDA & AMD: We are watching these closely for an entry. DELL closed yesterday at $118.04, showing some resilience, while NVDA slipped slightly to $187.90.
• New Additions to Watchlist: We have officially added MSFT, NFLX, AMZN, and MA (Mastercard) to the list. We are looking for these quality compounders to reach our technical "buy zones" in the coming days.
• Wait & See: For CRM, PYPL, and ORCL, we are waiting for a definitive end to the pattern of lower lows before we commit capital.

📅 Market Review for Thursday, February 19, 2026

Overview: The market’s three-day winning streak was snapped yesterday. Investors digested Fed minutes that suggested "higher for longer" rates might still be on the table, while a spike in crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions added a layer of geopolitical risk to the mix.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Gained +1.31% to finish near $67,088, snapping a two-day losing streak despite the general "risk-off" mood in equities.
• EUR/USD: Slipped as the Dollar found some support from the hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -0.28%, closing at 6,861.89.
• Nasdaq Composite: Slipped -0.31%, finishing at 22,682.73.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped -0.54% (-267 points), closing at 49,395.16.
• Gold: Edged higher as a safe-haven asset, trading near $4,950 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Spiked on geopolitical uncertainty, settling higher at $63.50 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance

• WMT (Walmart): Down -1.38% ($124.87). Rattled the retail sector with a cautious 2026 guidance.
• NVDA (Nvidia): Down -0.04% ($187.90). Remained remarkably flat despite the tech-sector pressure
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +1.08% ($118.04). Showing relative strength ahead of its earnings next week.
• MSFT (Microsoft): Down -0.30% ($398.41). Watchlist: Consolidating just below the $400 psychological level.
• META (Meta Platforms): Up +0.24% ($644.78). One of the few mega-cap tech names to finish in the green.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details

• S&P and US 500 Trade Summary: Stephen Cox reported that they closed down the S&P trade and the US 500 trade the previous day, resulting in a profit that was 3% on one account and just under 2% on another account. (00:03:35).
• Trade Tracker and Portfolio History Access: Attendees were informed about how to track their performance using the current system, noting that the data is updated daily. They can access the updated information, including the US 500 challenge results of up 5.44% versus the S&P 500 at 0.53%, in the knowledge base under "trades and portfolio history" (00:04:42).
• Current Challenge Status and Metrics: The US 500 challenge is currently 18% towards the 30% goal, with detailed metrics showing an average profit per trade of 2.72% and an average trade duration of 12.5 days. Since there are no open positions, the focus remains on tracking past trade logs and detailed analysis (00:04:42).
• New App and Supplemental Course Recommendation: Stephen Cox mentioned that a new app is being built to consolidate trade tracking for easier mobile access, which will present the information more clearly than the current method. They strongly encouraged those using XSP or the US 500 challenge to complete an extra course that serves as an additional layer of defence against assignment (00:05:43).
• Justification for Early Trade Closure: The decision to close the S&P 500 trade early was due to the 75% harvest rule, which mandates taking profit off the table once 75% of the maximum profit is reached (00:06:45). This strategy reduces the time exposed to market risk and, in this specific instance, could have theoretically doubled the return by allowing them to exit and re-enter the trade (00:07:41).
• Strategy for Next S&P Trade: The next trade will be initiated after a pullback in the S&P (referred to as "spy") to lower levels, targeting the 6,300 strike, which is 7% down from 6,800. This approach aims to achieve the 30% challenge target while maintaining a risk management plan, such as rolling out and down at 6420 to create a 2% buffer (00:08:36).
• Moving Average and Trading Rules: Michael Carroll inquired about the simple moving average, and Stephen Cox clarified they use the 200-day moving average on a daily chart, emphasizing a new rule that prohibits initiating a trade if the market is below this average. This rule is intended to avoid most historical crash events, though it may result in less frequent trading (00:09:39).
• Analysis of TLT Trade and Interest Rate Dynamics: Stephen Cox reported on an existing TLT trade set to expire in full profit tomorrow, yielding an $85 profit on a $10K account (0.85%) over approximately 28 days (00:10:37). TLT tracks 20-year treasury bonds and is inversely related to interest rates, meaning it offers a way to speculate on interest rate movements (00:11:41).
• Discussion of Interest Rates and Fed Policy: The discussion covered a Bloomberg article suggesting the Federal Reserve officials were more hawkish (favoring higher rates) than dovish (favoring cuts), though better-than-expected inflation data since the last Fed meeting may have changed perspectives (00:13:48). Stephen Cox opined that interest rates are likely to move sideways, remaining between 3.8% and 4.6%, and they only foresee dramatic rate cuts if jobs data substantially worsens (00:16:37).
• TLT Trading Recommendation: Stephen Cox recommended continuing to sell put options at the $86 strike on TLT, noting that recent lower inflation data has caused TLT to rally. This approach is seen as a less aggressive alternative to the S&P trade, especially given the stock's relatively low volatility (00:17:39).
• Analysis of Flutter (Long-Term Stock): Flutter, a long-term stock, has performed poorly due to recent headwinds, including a new UK betting tax ($320 million headwind) and the rise of US prediction markets, which are structured to bypass state laws (00:18:43). Flutter is responding by creating a competing product, FanJuel Predicts, at a cost of $300 million (00:21:03).
• Flutter Investment Strategy: Despite the challenges, Stephen Cox believes the selloff in Flutter is "way overdone" and presents a buying opportunity, though they would not average in further until after the upcoming earnings report (00:22:19). For new investors, they suggested averaging in with half the intended amount now and reserving the rest for post-earnings averaging, regardless of whether the stock drops or rallies (00:24:30).
• John Deere and Caterpillar Market Assessment: Stephen Cox reviewed John Deere and Caterpillar, concluding that the potential for profits based on global reconstruction (Gaza, Ukraine) has already been factored into the share price (00:24:30). They would consider selling if they owned the stocks, as current prices and analyst forecasts suggest a likely correction back toward the moving average (00:25:35).
• S&P 500 as an Alternative to Tech Volatility: In response to Clive’s search for less volatile alternatives, Stephen Cox suggested the S&P 500 due to its diversification across financials, energy, and technology sectors. They are bullish on the S&P because the recent sell-off in tech may set up a rally when capital eventually flows back into that sector later in the year (00:26:30).
• Economic Concerns Regarding AI and Jobs: Stephen Cox expressed concern that the job losses resulting from AI, especially in customer service and marketing, could become a trigger for economic trouble in the US within the next 12 to 24 months (00:27:31). They stressed the need for the membership to monitor monthly jobs data closely (00:28:33).
• Discussion on US Treasury Bonds: Clive raised concerns about global players potentially dumping US treasuries (00:29:37). Stephen Cox countered this, citing Hank Paulson’s book, which recounted China refusing a Russian proposal to sell off US debt to avoid self-harm, concluding that dumping debt on a large scale makes no economic sense unless used as a tool of war (00:30:51).
• Oil Stocks and Geopolitical Risk: The discussion moved to oil stocks in the context of potential Middle East conflict, with Stephen Cox noting that many have already moved in anticipation of higher oil prices. They recommended Slumberge and Halleburton, which provide technology and infrastructure for oil drilling, as conservative plays that benefit from higher demand (00:32:46) (00:35:08).
• Risk Associated with Russian Oil: Stephen Cox identified a significant, often overlooked risk to oil prices: a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine could result in Russian oil returning to the market, increasing supply and causing prices to drop (00:33:49). They acknowledged, however, that developers they work with have no faith in current peace talks (00:35:08).
• Technical and Fundamental Analysis of General Dynamics (GD): Michael Carroll asked about General Dynamics (GD), and Stephen Cox noted that technically, the chart shows a healthy consolidation after making a new high, which is encouraging (00:36:32). Fundamentally, they found the stock to be fully valued, with a high price-to-earnings multiple of 20 and a forecasted growth rate of only 5% on sales (00:38:44).
• Bitcoin Outlook and Supply Concerns: Stephen Cox, who does not trade or follow Bitcoin, predicted a retest of the recent low, which could lead to a drop to 55,000 (nearly 20% lower) if it fails to hold. Their main concern is the long-term impact of quantum computing on the supply side, as it could solve the underlying computational problems quicker and potentially increase the supply dramatically (00:40:50).
• Technology Stock Watch List: Stephen Cox continues to hold off on buying several technology stocks but expressed interest in Dell, Nvidia, and AMD (00:41:59). They noted that news of a new order from Meta has tied Nvidia down for years, and while the market questions if the good news is already priced in, they believe the stock will grind higher after the current consolidation (00:43:01).
• Gold and Silver Trading Strategy: The current range for silver is wide, and Stephen Cox suggested that a retest of the low is possible, which would be 20% lower, though a retest of the recent highs (15% higher) is also plausible (00:43:01). They advised treating silver with a "trader's hat on," operating within the wide consolidation range, and only holding gold as a long-term investment (00:45:10).
• Valuation of Oracle and Salesforce: Oracle and Salesforce are considered extremely cheap due to concerns over new AI tools that could simplify code writing for developers, negatively impacting demand and pricing for existing CRM products. Stephen Cox is waiting for consolidation and more confidence before investing in these software stocks, preferring the immediate outlook for Dell, Nvidia, and AMD (00:47:11).
• Final Summary and Future Actions: Stephen Cox affirmed that their core strategy is working and outperforming the market, and they will continue to apply new risk management rules to it. They are anticipating a market dip to put on the next US 500 trade and will alert members when they begin buying stocks again, focusing on tech names like Dell, Nvidia, and AMD, and diversified stocks like Amazon and Mastercard (00:46:10) (00:48:19).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Yesterday, Tuesday, February 17, 2026, Wall Street returned from the holiday break with a cautious but resilient tone. While the "SaaSpocalypse" narrative continued to weigh on specific software names due to AI-disruption fears, mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure stocks stabilized, allowing the major indices to log modest gains.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our active positions have shown excellent resilience through the recent volatility. We continue to benefit from time decay as we approach the final ten days of the February cycle.

• TLT Feb 20th Short $86 Put: ROI +0.84%. Expires Friday and we will make full profit!
• US 500 Feb 27th Short 6400 Put (IG): ROI +2.82%.
• XSP Feb 27th $640 Short Put (IBKR): ROI +1.37%.

No action required on any of these trades. We are letting them run to expiry. Both the US 500 and XSP trades remain a comfortable 6.5% above breakeven with a 94% probability of profit.

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist Update

We are expanding our horizons as the market re-prices some of the world's highest-quality companies.

• DELL, NVDA & AMD: These remain our high-conviction hardware plays. DELL closed at $116.09 yesterday, continuing to consolidate ahead of its earnings later this month. NVDA saw some mild pressure to close near $180.47, which is keeping it firmly in our "strike zone."
• New Additions to Watchlist: We have officially added MSFT, NFLX, AMZN, and MA (Mastercard) to our watchlist.
• Wait & See: For CRM, PYPL, and ORCL, we are looking for a definitive end to the "lower low" pattern. We are encouraged by the stabilization in the broader indices yesterday and will be looking for these names to follow suit.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Overview: The markets witnessed a "calm before the storm" atmosphere yesterday. While software names remained under pressure, Amazon halted its recent slide, ending a losing streak sparked by its massive CapEx guidance. Investors are now focused on the 10-year Treasury yield, which is hovering around the critical 4.00% level.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Slipped -1.07% to settle near $67,755. The digital asset continues its February consolidation, now down about 13% for the month.
• EUR/USD: Held steady near 1.1883 as the Dollar Index (DXY) attempted to break its 2026 downtrend.
• XRP: Faced mild pressure, trading near $1.35 alongside the broader crypto retreat.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +0.10%, closing at 6,843.22.
• Nasdaq Composite: Rose +0.14%, finishing at 22,578.38.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Inched up +0.07%, closing at 49,533.19.
• Gold: Faced significant selling pressure, dropping -2.18% to $4,936 per ounce.
• Silver: Tumbled -4.50% to settle at $74.45 per ounce as risk premiums unwound.
• WTI Crude Oil: Traded higher, settling around $64.00 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• AMZN (Amazon): Up +1.19% ($201.15). A vital bounce for the retail and cloud giant after a rough start to the month.
• ORCL (Oracle): Up +2.11% ($159.89). Continuing to buck the general software trend.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Down -1.19% ($116.09). Consolidating ahead of its February 26th earnings report.
• MSFT (Microsoft): Down -1.11% ($396.86). New Watchlist: Trading at levels not seen in some time; we are watching for a base here.
• NVDA (Nvidia): Down -1.28% ($180.47). Watchlist: Healthy consolidation within its broader uptrend.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Important Reminder: US markets closed on Monday.

Yesterday, Friday, February 13, 2026, Wall Street closed a volatile week on a mixed note as investors balanced cooling inflation data against persistent "AI anxiety" in the technology sector. While the Dow and S&P 500 managed marginal gains, the Nasdaq edged lower as a "sell first, ask later" mentality continued to grip mega-cap tech names.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our active positions remain in a very strong position as we head toward the final stretch of February. We have seen excellent stability in our breakeven cushions.

• TLT Feb 20th Short $86 Put: ROI +0.84%.
• US 500 Feb 27th Short 6400 Put (IG): ROI +1.39%.
• XSP Feb 27th $640 Short Put (IBKR): ROI +0.59%.

No action required on any of these trades. We are letting them run to expiry, where we remain on track to achieve our full target ROIs. Both the US 500 and XSP trades currently sit 6.5% above breakeven with a 94% probability of profit.

New Risk Management Course

Following our recent members' meeting and our deep dive into 'Black Swan' events, I’ve built a specific risk management course to protect your capital. Whether you're trading XSP on IBKR or US 500 on IG Index, this module is essential for anyone running non-cash-secured puts. It outlines our institutional Triple-Lock Defense, showing you exactly how to use the 200-DMA and VIX 35 levers to survive the 'Waterfalls' that wipe out most leveraged traders. Don't wait for the next gap-down to test your strategy—get the survival kit now.

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist Update

We continue to stay disciplined with our entries, letting the recent sector rotation bring quality names down to our preferred valuation levels.

• DELL, NVDA & AMD: These remain at the top of our list. After a difficult week for semiconductors, these leaders are nearing critical support zones where we anticipate adding them to our long-term buy-and-hold portfolio.
• New Additions to Watchlist: MSFT, NFLX, AMZN, and MA (Mastercard). We are expanding our focus to these quality compounders as the market re-prices growth expectations.
• Wait & See: For CRM, PYPL, and ORCL, we remain on the sidelines. We are looking for these stocks to stabilize and form a solid base before we commit capital.

📅 Market Review for Friday, February 13, 2026

Overview: The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.2% in January, bringing the annual rate down to 2.4%—the slowest pace in nearly a year. While this initially sparked a rally, it was quickly dampened by a fresh wave of "AI panic" that saw investors rotate out of high-multiple tech leaders and into defensive sectors like Industrials and Healthcare.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Rose to $68,733, showing some resilience after a mid-week dip.
• EUR/USD: Rose to 1.1883 as the cooling inflation data boosted hopes for a Fed rate cut, weakening the Dollar.
• XRP: Traded near $1.38, consolidating with the broader altcoin market.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +0.05%, closing at 6,836.17.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Edged up +0.10%, closing at 49,500.93.
• Nasdaq Composite: Slipped -0.22%, finishing at 22,546.67.
• Gold: Surged +2.48% to $5,043.92 per ounce as investors sought a safe haven from tech volatility.
• Silver: Bounced +2.98% to settle at $77.40 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Settled virtually flat at $62.81 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• COIN (Coinbase): Up +16.46% ($205.15). The standout winner following a massive earnings beat and strong subscription growth.
• AMAT (Applied Materials): Up +8.08% ($212.44). Hit an all-time high after providing a very bullish outlook for 2026.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Down -0.55% ($114.52). Watchlist: Holding steady while enterprise software names face heavier selling.
• NVDA (Nvidia): Down -2.23% ($182.78). Watchlist: Pressure continues as the AI trade becomes more selective.
• NFLX (Netflix): Down -3.09% ($86.12). New Watchlist: We are watching this pullback closely for a long-term entry point.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details

• Stock Analysis: Micron, Terodine, and Western Digital Stephen Cox began the stock review with Micron, suggesting that based on technicals and fundamentals, it might be time to take profits off the table due to a significant run-up (00:02:13). Clive Wisdom confirmed that "Terra" was Teradyne (00:04:19). Stephen Cox reviewed Teradyne, noting strong fundamentals, including improving operating margins, stable shares outstanding, good debt ratios, and anticipated substantial future sales and earnings growth (00:05:19). They concluded that much of the good news for Terodine appeared to be priced in, but advised staying with the momentum until weakness was observed (00:07:24). For Western Digital, Stephen Cox indicated that their models suggested it might be overcooked or approaching overvalued status, although the current consolidation was viewed as positive (00:08:30). Clive Wisdom mentioned selling calls on Terodine and that Western Digital had recently "sank" but was saved by the jobs report (00:09:34).
• Managing Momentum and Pullbacks in Trades Stephen Cox discussed the risk of significant pullbacks in stocks that have made large moves, such as Western Digital, noting a potential healthy correction of up to 22%. They differentiated between an investor's perspective (focused on long-term wealth) and a trader's perspective (which might suggest exiting due to the risk of large drops) (00:10:33). Stephen Cox emphasized that their model suggested Western Digital was fully valued, although further due diligence might offer deeper insight (00:11:32).
• Current S&P 500 Trade Performance Stephen Cox provided an update on the XSP and IG index trades on the S\&P 500, noting substantial returns of 1.4% on the Interactive Brokers account and 2.9% on the IG Index account in less than 10 days, all based on $10K accounts (00:12:46). They confirmed that both trades would be allowed to run to expiry, expecting further profits. Specifically, the IG Index trade was expected to yield another €110, and the XSP position was anticipated to add 0.6% more, with the S\&P 500 having a 99.5% probability of staying above the 6,400 put strike (00:13:46).
• Strategic Rationale for Strike Selection Stephen Cox explained the rationale for selecting the out-of-the-money 6,400 put strike instead of a closer strike like 6,800, despite the latter offering a higher premium (00:14:50). They analogized the strategy to selling insurance, highlighting that the lower strike provides a much larger buffer against market downturns, classifying it as a less risky approach designed to deliver consistent returns (00:16:56). The risk management plan for the S\&P 500 trade involves rolling out and down to a lower strike if the S\&P 500 hits 6,500, which would lower the break-even point well below 6,000 (00:18:02).
• Discussion on Downside Risk and Strategy Statistics Brendan asked about the downside risk, noting that historically, 87% of trades worked, and 7% needed to be rolled out and down (which Stephen Cox clarified turned profitable) (00:20:03). They raised concerns about a sudden, rapid market drop that could happen while one is asleep, preventing the action point trigger (00:20:58) (00:26:06).
• Managing In-the-Money Puts and Alternatives Stephen Cox discussed the options for managing a rapid drop, including taking a hit, or rolling out and across to extend the timeframe if unable to roll out and down. They also suggested that a bull put spread—buying a put option underneath the sold put—would be a safer alternative for those uncomfortable with the downside risk, although it offers a substantially smaller premium (00:29:02).
• Comparison of IG Index and Interactive Brokers for S\&P 500 Strategy Jerry voiced concerns about the potential for mounting losses with IG Index during a significant market circuit breaker, preferring IBKR for the option of getting assigned shares (00:32:15). Stephen Cox agreed that IG Index is return-based, while Interactive Brokers allows taking assignment of the shares (with Spy, not XSP), which provides a hold-until-recovery strategy (00:36:40). They also noted that IG Index offers more opportunities to roll out and down because it trades 24/5 (00:40:58).
• Market Outlook and S\&P 500 Technical Analysis Jerry inquired about the S\&P 500's current triple-top formation (00:33:23). Stephen Cox stated they expect a pullback in the first half of the year, possibly down to the 6,400-6,500 range, to bring in fresh capital. They also noted that the rally is broadening out beyond the "Mag Seven," evidenced by the QQQ not performing as well as the S\&P 500 since last October, indicating a healthy market trend (00:34:30).
• Statistical Safeness of Short Put Strategy Stephen G provided statistics on historical S\&P 500 one-day drops, noting that drops greater than 5% are extremely rare (21 days out of 15,000) (00:37:41). He concluded that based on statistics, the strategy offers sufficient time to manage the position (00:38:55). Stephen Cox agreed with the statistical perspective, emphasizing that there is always risk, and it is crucial for individuals to assess their comfort level and have a management plan if things go wrong (00:40:02).
• Bitcoin and Metals Technical Outlook Stephen Cox briefly discussed Bitcoin from a technical perspective, suggesting that the recent low will likely be retested, with the next possible low around $55,000 (00:42:02). Regarding silver, they noted that the aggressive move was unsustainable and has corrected significantly. They suggested silver will likely be rangebound for a while but predicted that both the recent high and low will be retested (00:43:57). Stephen Cox was less concerned about gold and suggested holding it, as its move up was less aggressive, predicting it will test its high again (00:44:58).
• Stock Watchlist and Downtrend Management Stephen Cox mentioned that Dell is selling off and may be a good entry point soon (00:44:58). Oracle is approaching a breakout from its downtrend, but they cautioned about AI risks potentially eating into its business. They used PayPal and Lyft as stark reminders to wait for downtrends to end before investing, as earnings announcements can cause significant drops (00:45:56). Stephen Cox indicated that Nvidia and AMD look promising due to increased AI spending from major tech companies (00:46:59).
• Trading High-Risk Stock (NNE) Stephen Cox suggested NNE, a micro nuclear reactor company, for those interested in aggressive, high-risk trading, noting its stock moves 5 to 10% a day despite poor financials (00:48:01). They stressed limiting allocation to well below 2% due to the high risk (00:49:09).
• Clarification on Rolling Out When In-the-Money Stephen V asked why an XSP put option cannot be rolled out and down if it has dropped in the money (00:50:05). Stephen Cox explained that once a put option is in-the-money, it has intrinsic or "real value," making it more expensive to buy back and significantly limiting how far down it can be rolled for a credit (00:51:06). They reiterated that the key to the strategy is rolling out and down before the share price drops in the money (00:52:23).
• US Dollar Outlook Brendan O'Reilly 262626 asked for a comment on the consensus view that the US dollar will weaken. Stephen Cox disagreed, stating that a substantial weakening would only likely happen if interest rates were slashed or the US economy significantly deteriorated, which they did not anticipate. They predicted the dollar would remain rangebound between 116 and 125 (00:53:19).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie