Yesterday, Tuesday, March 17, 2026, Wall Street continued its recovery as the Federal Reserve opened its two-day policy meeting. Despite crude oil ticking back above the $100 mark, investors appeared to be "looking past" the immediate Iran conflict, focusing instead on strong corporate news and the potential for a stabilizing Fed commentary today.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We are absolutely smashing it this year. Our disciplined approach to high-probability trading continues to widen the gap between our returns and the broader market.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.12% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +7.25% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -1.88% YTD.

US 500 Challenge Update: March 18, 2026

Current Trade Performance Our current US 500 short put trade is performing exceptionally well, currently up 2.2% in just 13 days. As the index rose +0.25% yesterday and the VIX dropped another 5% to 22.37, the premium is melting away exactly as planned. We are almost ready to lock in these gains.

The Probability Advantage Our ability to stay profitable while the benchmark is nearly 2% in the red for the year highlights the resilience of this strategy. We aren't just surviving this volatility; we are thriving in it.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

We are maintaining our cautious stance on the broader equity market, but the "shopping list" is becoming more attractive by the day.

• Domestic Airlines: We are seeing significant deep-value opportunities here as fuel-price fears have reached a fever pitch. Alaska Air (ALK) remains our top pick for a domestic recovery play.
• Tech Leaders (The "Big Three"): We are on high alert to buy NVDA, ORCL, and CRM.

• ORCL announced Java 26, further cementing its AI infrastructure dominance.
  ​The "Wait" Strategy: We are strictly waiting for a clear sign of an off-ramp in the Iran war before we commit our long-term capital. We want to see the "geopolitical tax" removed before we start the next major accumulation phase.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Overview: The "Fear Gauge" (VIX) fell to 22.37 yesterday, its lowest level in over a week. This relaxation in market stress allowed the S&P 500 to notch its second consecutive gain, even as energy prices remained elevated.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +0.25%, closing at 6,716.09.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +0.47%, finishing at 22,479.53.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +0.10%, closing at 46,993.26.
• WTI Crude Oil: Settled higher near $96.95 per barrel as supply threats persisted.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Happy St. Patrick’s Day! ☘️ Whether you’re celebrating in Dublin or further afield, we hope you have a fantastic day. It’s a sea of green in more ways than one today, as the markets followed suit with a strong start to the week.

Yesterday, Monday, March 16, 2026, Wall Street saw its strongest performance in over a month as a sharp pullback in oil prices triggered a massive "relief rally." Investors cheered as WTI crude fell toward the $93 level, easing fears of an uncontainable energy shock and allowing the major indices to reclaim significant technical ground.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategy continues to smash the benchmark. While the broader market is struggling in negative territory for the year, our disciplined approach to high-probability trading is delivering exceptional results.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +8.14% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -2.13% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +6.29% YTD.

US 500 Challenge Update: March 17, 2026

Current Trade Performance Our current US 500 short put trade swung into a profit of 1.2% yesterday. The combination of the index rising +1.01% and a significant contraction in volatility allowed our premiums to decay rapidly in our favor. We intend letting this trade run a little longer until we get to circa 2.3% ROI for this trade.

The Road Ahead We are beating the S&P 500 by a wide margin. Our ability to generate positive returns while the index is down over 2% for the year is a testament to the "Margin of Safety" we build into every trade. We are well on track to smash our 30% ROI challenge for this year.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

We are remaining patient with our cash, as we are not fans of buying most stocks right now given the macro climate. However, our shopping list is finalized and we are waiting for the right moment to strike.

• Domestic Airlines (Value Play): High fuel costs have hit this sector hard, making domestic carriers like Alaska Air (ALK) look incredibly cheap on a fundamental basis.
• Tech Powerhouses: We are very close to pulling the trigger on NVDA, ORCL, and CRM. These three represent the "crown jewels" of AI and enterprise software.
• The "Off-Ramp" Catalyst: We are strictly waiting for a clear sign of a diplomatic off-ramp in the war with Iran before committing long-term capital. Once the geopolitical risk subsides, we expect a violent re-rating higher.

📅 Market Review for Monday, March 16, 2026

Overview: The "Oil Tax" on the economy eased yesterday, providing a much-needed lift to equities. The VIX Index saw a significant pivot, dropping from the 27–28 range toward 23.51, which served as the primary engine for yesterday's price recovery.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +1.01%, closing at 6,699.35.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +1.20%, finishing at 22,374.18.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +1.16%, closing at 47,100.05.
• WTI Crude Oil: Fell -3.24% to settle at $93.88 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Closing Prices)

• CRM (Salesforce): Up +2.54% ($197.72).
• NVDA (Nvidia): Up +1.63% ($183.19).
• ALK (Alaska Air): Up +1.11% ($38.42).
• ORCL (Oracle): Up +0.55% ($155.97).

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Yesterday, Friday, March 13, 2026, Wall Street faced a volatile "Friday the 13th" session. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to pressure the global economy as oil prices spiked toward the $100/barrel mark. This served as a significant headwind for major indices, leading to a third consecutive week of losses for the S&P 500.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategies continue to highlight the massive benefits of high-probability trading in a falling market. While the benchmark index retreats, our capital remains protected and our year-to-date returns are substantially ahead.

• S&P 500 Index: Down -3.11% YTD.
• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +6.76% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +4.84% YTD.

Market Performance vs. Strategy Resilience The S&P 500 dropped another 0.61% yesterday, closing at 6,632.19. However, our position remains incredibly resilient, down only a marginal 0.16%. This is a textbook example of the benefits of High-Probability Index Trading: while the market continues to slide, our "delta" (price sensitivity) is cushioned by our distance from the strike price.

The Safety Margin As we look toward the March 31st expiration, the math remains firmly on our side:

• Current Level: 6,632.19.
• Breakeven Buffer: The S&P 500 can fall an additional 7.31% from current levels before the trade is at risk at expiry.
• Probability of Profit: This trade maintains a robust statistical advantage of over 90%.

The Outlook We remain confident in the original trade thesis and the current risk-reward profile:

• Target Return: We still anticipate yielding a circa 2% ROI on this trade before expiration.
• Current Action: No action required. We are letting the probability and the clock work in our favor.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

While we are generally not fans of buying stocks right now due to the macro uncertainty, we are identifying significant value emerging in specific pockets of the market.

• Domestic Airlines: This sector has become exceptionally cheap due to the spike in fuel costs. We are specifically looking at names like Alaska Air (ALK), which are trading at levels that historically represent long-term value.
• Tech Leaders: We are also getting very close to pulling the trigger on NVDA, ORCL, and CRM. These companies remain best-in-class, but we are exercising extreme patience.
• The Catalyst: We are waiting for a clear sign that there is an "off-ramp" regarding the war in Iran. Once we see a path toward de-escalation, we expect these names to move sharply higher, and we will be ready to deploy our cash.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Rose +1.00% to close near $71,173, showing some "digital gold" resilience despite the equity sell-off.
• VIX Index: Settled slightly lower at 26.93 after a volatile week, but remains elevated as investors brace for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -0.61%, closing at 6,632.19.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -0.93%, finishing at 22,105.36.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -0.26%, closing at 46,558.47.
• WTI Crude Oil: Jumped over 3% to reach $99.31 per barrel as supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified.Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Yesterday, Thursday, March 12, 2026, the markets faced renewed selling pressure as global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East resurfaced. While specific hardware names like Dell showed relative strength, the broader indices retreated as the VIX spiked, signaling a return of "risk-off" sentiment.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategies continue to deliver massive outperformance. Even with the latest market sell-off, our disciplined approach has kept our capital protected and our returns well ahead of the benchmark.

• US 500 Strategy: Up +6.69% YTD (vs. S&P 500 loss of -2.52%).
• XSP/SPY Strategy: Up +4.81% YTD.

US 500,XSP/SPY Challenge Updates:

Market Context The S&P 500 dropped 1.52% yesterday, causing our position to slip slightly into the red, currently down 0.24%. This move was accompanied by the VIX jumping back to 28, which temporarily inflated option premiums and suppressed our "paper" profit.

The Resilience of the Strategy While the daily fluctuation isn't ideal to look at, the structural integrity of the trade remains remarkably high:

• Margin of Safety: The S&P 500 could fall another 8% from yesterday’s close before we reach our breakeven point at the March 31st expiration.
• Statistical Edge: Based on yesterday’s close, the trade still maintains a 93% probability of profit.

The Outlook Volatility spikes like this are part of the process when selling puts. We are staying focused on the end goal:

• Target Return: We still expect to realize a return of approximately 2% ROI on this trade by month-end.
• Current Action: No action required. We are not reacting to short-term swings and will continue to let the trade run its course.

🚀 Earnings & Stock Spotlight

• Oracle (ORCL): Despite a massive AI-driven earnings beat earlier in the week, the stock faced a "sell the news" reaction in the broader sell-off, closing lower at $151.56. However, the long-term story remains intact with its $553B backlog.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): A rare bright spot yesterday. Dell climbed +1.72% to close at $149.91, as investors continue to reward its record AI server demand and dividend growth.
• NVDA (Nvidia): Faced pressure alongside the Nasdaq, slipping as the market recalibrates AI valuations amidst rising energy costs and a higher-for-longer rate environment.
  
  We are not a huge fan of buying individual stocks at the moment. However, we do believe buying opportunities are being created in select software names, NVDA and domestic airline stocks when the conflict in Iran ends.

📅 Market Review for Thursday, March 12, 2026

Overview: Wall Street's recovery hit a snag yesterday. Worries about the escalating conflict in the Middle East sent oil prices back toward the $100/barrel mark, acting as a tax on both consumers and corporations.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Slipped back below the $70,000 mark as traders moved away from speculative assets during the equity slide.
• VIX Index: Surged over 12% to reach 27.29 (peaking near 28 intraday), reflecting the "fear premium" returning to the option market.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -1.52%, closing at 6,672.32.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -1.80%, finishing at 22,311.98.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -1.60% (-739 points), closing at 46,677.85.
• WTI Crude Oil: Rebounded sharply toward $100.00 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details:

• Role of Volatility in Option Prices: Stephen Cox began the market discussion by emphasizing the importance of volatility, specifically the VIX (implied volatility), in determining option prices. They reiterated the strategy adage, "when the VIX is high, it's time to buy. When the VIX is low, it's time to go," treating the VIX as a contrarian indicator (00:07:52).
• VIX and Option Selling Strategy: When the VIX spikes, option premiums become very pricey, which is beneficial for sellers using a put option strategy (00:08:53). They explained that a recent VIX spike resulted in a temporary loss for their trade, but they accounted for a large "wiggle room" for the strategy to go wrong (00:10:11).
• Impact of Time Decay and Volatility Drop on Profit: Stephen Cox noted that despite the S&P 500 share price being lower than when they entered the trade, they were still in profit. This profit resulted from time decay making the options cheaper and a drop in implied volatility, which also lowered the option prices (00:12:13).
• Market Outlook and S\&P 500 Trend: Stephen Cox stated that the current situation, with crude oil remaining stubbornly high due to the ongoing conflict, makes a meaningful rally in the S\&P 500 difficult (00:13:12). Patrick mckeon's assessment that the S\&P 500 is starting to turn over was acknowledged, with the market being in a long-term uptrend but a short-term downtrend (00:14:10).
• Strategic Management of the US 500 Trade: Regarding the US 500, Stephen Cox currently intends to let the trade run until the premium drops to 8. However, if the market rallies and the premium drops to 15 or 16 by tomorrow afternoon, they might exit the trade early to lock in gains before the weekend due to current volatility and uncertainty (00:16:07).
• Strategic Management of the XSP Trade: For the XSP trade, the limit order is set at 75 or 08, but if the premium drops to 140 or 150 by midday tomorrow, they might close the trade early (00:17:05). This strategy of locking in a decent profit tomorrow is due to exceptional times involving a war, rallying oil prices, and issues in the credit markets (00:18:08).
• Discussion on Short-Term Puts and Strategy Consistency: Michael Carroll asked if it would be advisable to use shorter-term weekly puts due to volatility, but Stephen Cox advised sticking to the current strategy (00:19:02). They reaffirmed that the current time frame is already reduced to about 30 days or less, rather than the normal 45 days (00:19:59).
• Advice on a Put Spread and Break-Even: Following Michael Carroll's query about their 670/660 ratio put spread, Stephen Cox advised rolling out and down one of the 660 contracts (00:19:59). This advice was based on the projected opening of the market and the risk that a 2% drop would place the price below the 660 strike, making it difficult to roll out and down later (00:20:59).
• Outlook on Gold and Silver: Stephen Cox noted that gold is likely to mark time because the US dollar is strengthening as a safe haven. They would not trade gold, preferring to own it, but suggested that silver is a different ballgame and should be traded rather than invested due to its exponential moves (00:21:50).
• Stock Buying Opportunities and Oil Conflict: The current stock market decline is creating buying opportunities, assuming the US economy remains healthy and the conflict is short-lived. If the conflict is short-lived, the market is expected to rally until the end of the year (00:22:52).
• Specific Equity Recommendations (Software and AI): Stephen Cox reiterated previous stock recommendations, including Oracle, as its downtrend appears over and demand for its AI side is strong, and Nvidia as a value buy. CRM was also mentioned as a stock where fears are likely overblown (00:23:58).
• Airlines and Fuel-Intensive Business Analysis: Michael Carroll's idea of buying Alaska Airlines was discussed, noting that high oil prices negatively impact airlines as fuel is a major cost (00:23:58). If the conflict is short-lived and oil prices drop, airline stocks could see a massive rebound, and other fuel-intensive transportation stocks like FedEx and DHL are also worth considering (00:25:02).
• Geopolitical Discussion on the Conflict Duration: The group discussed the likely duration of the conflict, with Stephen Cox asserting that it makes no economic sense for anyone for it to continue for long, anticipating that peace will prevail (00:27:22). Michael Carroll mentioned the substantial cost of the war to the US (around $10 billion), adding that the US cannot maintain that cost (00:28:29).
• Perspectives on Geopolitical Intervention and Market Impact: Nanik Hotwani suggested that China might pressure Iran to back off due to China's own economic pain and their relationship with Iran (00:29:34). Stephen Gavin provided an insight from the hospitality sector in Dubai, where many people have been furloughed until September 1st, suggesting they anticipate a slow period (00:30:31).
• S\&P 500 Downside Risk and Support Levels: Stephen Cox prepared the group for a potential 10% peak-to-trough drop in the S\&P 500, down to 6,300, depending on the conflict's duration (00:32:31). They identified the next clear line of support at about 6,600, which is the 200-day moving average (00:15:11).
• Risk Management and Strategy Comfort: Stephen Cox demonstrated the strength of their XSP strategy, showing that even if forced to roll out and down (at 6,300), they could push the strike down to 560 for the end of April (00:32:31). This deep contingency plan offers comfort that they should be fine even if the market goes "pear-shaped" (00:34:42).
• Refined Airline Stock Recommendations: Based on the geopolitical discussion, Stephen Cox suggested that domestically oriented airlines like Alaska Airlines, Ryanair, and Southwest Airlines might be a better choice. This is because the appetite for flying through the Middle East might be low over the next while, impacting international carriers' revenue (00:35:47).
• US Bond Yields and TLT Put Option Trade: US bond yields are spiraling out, indicating the market is pricing in that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates due to oil's inflationary pressures (00:36:49). Stephen Cox mentioned that selling a short put option on TLT (the 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF) is back on the cards for their IBKR account (00:37:48).
• TLT Trade Pricing and Strike Selection: Michael Carroll provided the current price for the TLT 86 put option (April 17th expiry) as 111, representing a 1.3% return (00:37:48). Stephen Cox suggested choosing the 85 strike instead to account for the possibility of yields creeping up to 4.5% due to oil price inflation (00:38:55).
• Question on XSP Premium and Profit Taking: Nanik Hotwani asked if they should close the XSP trade if they reach 65% to 70% of the premium today. Stephen Cox confirmed that if they can buy back the premium at 140 or 150 today or tomorrow, they should absolutely take it off the table (00:39:59).
• Opinion on Oil (UNG) Trading Strategy: Stephen Cox is personally trading oil via bear put spreads but will not broadcast it as a trade due to its low probability and defined risk. A bear put spread on USO, for example, buying the $100 put and selling the $90 put, is a way to bet on the conflict being short-lived, though it has less than a 30% chance of winning (00:40:52) (00:42:44).
• Forex Trading on IBKR vs. IG: Nanik Hotwani asked about trading Forex on IBKR. Stephen Cox explained that it can be done through currency CFDs on IBKR, requiring account approval and configuration (00:43:41).
• Alternative Currency Strategy (Cash Conversion): An alternative to trading currency pairs is converting cash to another currency if one feels the original currency will weaken. For instance, converting US dollars to euros if the dollar is expected to weaken, and then converting back when it has weakened, is a simple cash management strategy (00:45:46).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call or face to face strategy session.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

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Yesterday, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, Wall Street entered a phase of calm consolidation as the extreme geopolitical theatre of the previous 48 hours began to recede. While the major indices posted slight declines, the underlying market structure remained stable, allowing our option positions to thrive.

📈 Why the Markets Rebounded

The primary catalysts for this remarkable recovery include:

1. G7 Intervention: Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors held an emergency meeting to signal "managed urgency." By discussing a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves, they successfully cooled fears of a global energy shock.
2. Geopolitical Assurances: Market sentiment improved significantly following President Trump's announcement that the US Navy will escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, backed by government-provided political risk insurance.
3. Oil & VIX Retraction: Crude oil has retreated back below the $100/barrel mark, and the VIX has dropped back toward 25, easing the pressure on equity futures.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategy continues to demonstrate its strength during high-stress environments. Both our active challenge trades moved significantly into the green yesterday.

• US 500 (IG Portfolio) Short 6150 March 31st Put: Up +0.52%.
• XSP (IBKR Portfolio) Short 615 March 31st Put: Up +0.54%.

Market Snapshot: The S&P 500 closed down a marginal 0.21% yesterday—a non-event compared to earlier volatility. Our positions are currently sitting at a total average profit of 0.54% for this specific leg.

The Outlook: As the VIX continues its descent toward the 20 level, we expect option premiums to contract sharply, allowing us to exit at our 75% profit target.

The Probability Advantage: The trade has a 97% probability of profit and the S&P 500 can fall ip to 9% in the next 3 weeks!
Our US 500 Challenge is now up 7.55% YTD, while the S&P 500 Index is down -0.94% for the same period.

🚀 Earnings Spotlight: Oracle (ORCL)

Oracle stole the spotlight yesterday after releasing its Q3 2026 results. The share price jumped nearly 10% in extended trading following an "exceptional" beat-and-raise performance.

• The Numbers: Oracle reported adjusted EPS of $1.79 (vs. $1.70 expected) on revenue of $17.2 billion.
• AI Surge: The primary driver was Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue, which skyrocketed 84% year-over-year to $4.9 billion.
• The Backlog: Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged to a staggering $553 billion, up 325% from last year, primarily due to massive AI contracts.
• Future Outlook: Management raised its FY2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion, signaling that the AI infrastructure boom is far from over.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Overview: The "Panic Peak" has passed. Oil prices tumbled by roughly 15% (WTI settling near $80.31) as traders reacted to the de-escalation of the Iran conflict and potential trade route reopening.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Recovered to close above the psychological $70,000 mark.
• EUR/USD: Steady near 1.16

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -0.21%, closing at 6,781.48.
• Nasdaq Composite: Slipped -0.34%, finishing at 22,597.10.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped -0.20%, closing at 48,810.55.
• WTI Crude Oil: Plunged -15.5% to settle at $80.31 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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Yesterday, Monday, March 9, 2026, Wall Street staged a massive "relief rally" in a session defined by extreme intraday swings. After opening down nearly 1.5% as crude oil futures skyrocketed toward $120 a barrel, the markets reversed course sharply to finish in the green.

📈 Why the Markets Rebounded

The primary catalysts for this remarkable recovery include:

1. G7 Intervention: Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors held an emergency meeting to signal "managed urgency." By discussing a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves (potentially 300M to 400M barrels), they successfully cooled fears of a global energy shock.
2. Geopolitical Assurances: Market sentiment improved significantly following President Trump's announcement that the US Navy will escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. This was bolstered by the news that the government will provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees to shipping lines.
3. Oil & VIX Retraction: Crude oil has retreated back below the $100/barrel mark (WTI hit an intraday low near $88), and the VIX has dropped back toward 25 from its morning spike near 30, easing the pressure on equity futures.

Is this a new Put option for stocks?

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We have been on a roll with the US 500 challenge on IG and the IBKR XSP/SPY challenge. We have already closed out trades with gains of 1.48% and 1.32% respectively for this month. Following yesterday's wild volatility, our active positions are performing excellently:

• US 500 Short 6150 March 31st Put: +0.63%. Click Here to access trade details.
• XSP Short 615 March 31st Put: +0.67%: Click Here to access trade details.

Strategy Note: We intend to close out these trades when they hit circa 75% of our maximum potential profit.
​

Year-to-Date Performance:
- US 500 challenge is now up a whopping 7.55% YTD
- IBKR XSP/SPY challenge is up a nice 5.73%.

This is exceptional outperformance considering the S&P 500 is down 0.72% for the same period.
Navigating this extremely volatile period with these gains proves the resilience of our high-probability approach.

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist Update

Yesterday's reversal provided a "V-bottom" look for many of our top targets.

• NVDA (Nvidia): Gained +2.71% ($182.65) following a Morgan Stanley upgrade and renewed AI optimism as the geopolitical "fog" lifted. We like this stock and think it is a buy at these levels.
• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): A massive standout, surging +5.32% ($202.68) as it reclaimed the key $200 level.
• Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings tonight. This is a long term buy and hold target for us. We will wait for earnings to pass before making an investment.

📅 Market Review for Monday, March 9, 2026

Overview: The day started in "panic mode" with oil-driven inflation fears, but ended in a buying frenzy. The turning point came in the afternoon when headlines suggested a de-escalation in the Middle East, causing crude oil to plummet from its highs back into the $80s per barrel.
​

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Settled near $68,284.
• EUR/USD: Volatile, but settled near 1.1631 as the Dollar's safe-haven bid evaporated in the afternoon.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Gained +0.83%, closing at 6,796.33.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +1.38%, finishing at 22,696.81.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added +0.50% (+240 points), closing at 47,741.75.
• Gold: Volatile; hit highs near $5,300 before settling around $5,050 as risk appetite returned.
• WTI Crude Oil: Ended the day significantly lower than its intraday peak, settling back in the $80/bbl range.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

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🚀 US 500 CHALLENGE: Full Trade Lifecycle (+2.30%)

Status: Trade Closed | Total Duration: 18 days | Strategy: High-Probability Short Put

RESULT: 2.3%

🕒 The Trade Timeline

This was the second time we have placed this trade in March. To help you master the US 500 Challenge, I’ve documented every stage of this trade—from the initial entry to the moment we hit the "Exit" button.

Stage 1: The Entry (The Opportunity):

We identified a high-probability window to sell premium as the market dipped.

• Opening Trade Date: March 5th
• Logic: Selling "expensive" insurance (volatility) to the market at key support.
• We sold the March 31st 6150 Put Option and generated 30.20 in premium for every point. We stuck to our rules of using a bet size of $12 per €10K account. This resulted in a total premium income of $362.40.
• 🎥 Watch the Opening Video:

Stage 2: Trade Updates:

• March 23rd:
  ​TRADE CLOSED: 2.3% ROI SECURED IN 18 DAYS! ✅
  ​The Catalyst: Geopolitical De-escalation
  We are exiting our US 500 6,150 Short Put trade this morning after a massive shift in market sentiment. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% in pre-market trading following a significant pivot in US foreign policy.
  President Trump has withdrawn immediate threats regarding Iranian energy infrastructure, signaling instead that "managed talks" are possible. This shift has immediately:
  - Crushed Volatility: The "war premium" in the VIX has evaporated.
  - Boosted Equities: Futures have surged, moving the index even further away from our strike price.
  ​Performance Review
  - Total Return: 2.3% ROI
  - Duration: Only 18 Days
  ​Exit Target: 75% of Maximum Potential Profit (Successfully hit)
  ​The Power of the Strategy
  This trade proves the resilience of high-probability income trading. Even when we saw the VIX spike to 34 and Oil cross $100 earlier this month, our 9% safety buffer allowed us to stay calm and disciplined.
  While "buy and hold" investors were panicking during the dip, we held our ground and let time decay (Theta) and the eventual volatility crush (Vega) do the work.
  ​Current Action: TRADE CLOSED. We have locked in our 2.3% gain and are now moving to the sidelines with a healthy cash position, ready to deploy into the next high-probability setup.

• March 23rd: Market Update: Navigating Volatility & Trade Adjustments
  Stock futures are down again this morning, currently sitting at just under 1% lower. I’ll be providing a more detailed update later today once US traders enter the futures market and we see more volume.
  ​Current Positions & Strategy
  - March Trade: Our 6150 short put currently has a 5% cushion above the futures price.
  - The Plan: If we hit 6300 (roughly 3% from current levels), we won't take any chances. We will look to roll out and down immediately to protect the position.
  - Volatility: The VIX has jumped again, which is driving up option premiums across the board.
  ​Looking Ahead
  While this sell-off is creating a fantastic opportunity for our upcoming April trade, our primary focus is navigating the existing March position with discipline. I’ll post a follow-up once we have greater clarity.
  ​S&P 500 Buying Opportunity
  For those waiting for an entry point into the S&P 500: we are fast approaching the window to begin Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). It is still a little too early for my liking, but the levels are getting much more attractive.
  Stay tuned for more updates later today.

• March 21st: Market Analysis: Volatility Returns
  The S&P 500 faced another round of selling yesterday, dropping 1.51%. This move pushed the VIX back up to 27, reflecting a renewed sense of caution in the markets.
  ​The Power of High-Probability Trading
  While a 1.5% drop would be a loss for most investors, our position remains in positive territory. This is the core benefit of the ShareNavigator approach:
  - Position Status: Currently up 1.27%.
  - The Resilience Factor: Despite the index falling and volatility rising, our "Buffer" is doing exactly what it was designed to do. We are still 6.26% above our strike price.
  ​The Stats: 7 Trading Days to Go
  We are entering the final stretch of the March cycle. The math remains heavily in our favor:
  - Probability of Profit: Still a dominant 96%.
  - Safety Margin: 6.26% distance to our 6,150 strike.
  - Exit Target: We are sticking to our disciplined plan to exit at 75% of maximum profit (circa 2.3% ROI).
  ​Weekend Strategy
  ​Current Action: No action required. Over the next 48 hours, the markets are closed, but "Theta" (time decay) never sleeps. We expect the passage of time over the weekend to help offset yesterday’s volatility spike when we open on Monday.

• March 20th: The "Volatility Crush" in Action
  Yesterday provided a textbook lesson in professional options trading. While the S&P 500 fell another 0.28%, our position actually increased in value, climbing to a 1.79% gain.
  ​How is this possible? Even though the index dropped slightly, the Volatility Index (VIX) pulled back. As "fear" leaves the market, the price of the puts we sold decreases, allowing our profit to grow despite the downward move in the underlying index.
  ​The Weekend Advantage
  As we head into the weekend, the math remains overwhelmingly in our favor:
  - Current Gain: 1.79%
  - Distance to Strike: We are still 6.86% above our 6,150 strike price.
  - Probability of Profit: Our statistical edge has strengthened to 98%.
  - Time to Expiry: Only 8 trading days remaining.
  ​The Final Target
  We are now very close to our exit point. We are sticking to the disciplined plan:
  - Exit Target: 75% of maximum potential profit.
  - Target ROI: Approximately 2.3%.
  ​Action: No action required. We will benefit from two "free" days of time decay (Theta) over the Saturday/Sunday break. We expect to be very close to our profit target when the opening bell rings on Monday morning.
• March 19th: Market Analysis: Macro Headwinds The S&P 500 fell 1.3% yesterday as a "triple threat" of factors impacted sentiment:
  - Inflation Data: Hotter-than-expected data has kept the pressure on the markets.
  - The Federal Reserve: Recent indications suggest the Fed is taking a neutral stance—neither hawkish nor dovish—which has caused expectations for near-term interest rate cuts to fade.
  - Energy Prices: A resumption in the rise of oil prices added further weight to the index.
  ​Position Resilience
  Despite the broader market drop, our 6150 Short Put remains remarkably stable. While we have temporarily given up some of our recent gains, the position is still up 1.2%.
  ​The Final Countdown (9 Trading Days to Expiry)
  With only 9 trading days remaining until the March 31st expiration, time decay (Theta) is now our strongest ally:
  - Distance to Strike: We remain 7% above our strike price.
  - Probability of Profit: Our statistical edge remains extremely high at 97%.
  - Exit Target: We are sticking to our disciplined plan to exit at 75% of maximum profit, targeting a circa 2.3% ROI.
  ​Action: No action required. We are staying the course. With less than two weeks to go, we are letting the clock do the work while the market digests the recent Fed news.

• March 18th: Profit Surge: 99% Probability Reached
  The trade has seen a significant jump in performance over the last 24 hours. Following yesterday's rally in the S&P 500 and a continued push higher in the futures this morning, our position is now up 2.2%.
  ​The Macro Tailwinds
  Two key factors are driving this rapid appreciation:
  - Crude Oil Subsiding: Oil futures have begun to pull back as supply concerns ease (with news of Iraqi exports resuming via Turkey). This has removed the immediate "energy shock" premium from the market.
  - VIX Contraction: The VIX has pulled back significantly, directly benefiting our short put position as the "fear juice" in the option price evaporates.
  ​The Stats
  - Probability of Profit: Now at a dominant 99%.
  - Current Gain: 2.2% in just 13 days!
  - Target Exit: 2.3% ROI.
  ​The Game Plan: Harvesting 75% of Max Profit
  We are now at the finish line. Our strategy dictates closing this trade once we reach a 2.3% ROI, which represents 75% of the maximum potential profit available on the trade.
  ​Current Action: We are keeping our limit orders in place. Once we hit that 2.3% mark, we will exit, lock in the gains, and move to the sidelines to wait for the next high-probability setup.

• March 17th: Market Momentum & Profit Acceleration
  The S&P 500 delivered a solid performance yesterday, closing up 1%. Consequently, our position has accelerated and is now sitting at a 1.2% profit.
  We are seeing a dual benefit here: the market is moving higher (Delta), and the "fear premium" is melting away as stability returns.
  ​Key Metrics at a Glance
  Our statistical advantage continues to widen as we approach the final two weeks of the March cycle:
  - Margin of Safety: We are now 8.14% above our breakeven price.
  - Probability of Profit: Our edge has strengthened to a dominant 98%.
  - ROI Target: We remain firmly on track to hit our 2.3% ROI goal.
  ​The Game Plan
  ​Current Action: No action required. The math is doing the heavy lifting now. We are simply letting time decay (Theta) erode the remaining premium as we glide toward our exit target.

• March 16th: Monday Morning Momentum
  We are starting the week on a high note. S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.7%, and our position has responded positively, now sitting at a 0.8% profit.
  The time decay (Theta) over the weekend, combined with this morning's upward price action, has moved us significantly closer to our profit target.
  ​The Numbers
  The trade mechanics remain exceptionally strong as we head into the final two weeks of the month:
  - Current Buffer: We remain 7.7% above our breakeven price.
  - Probability of Profit: Our statistical edge has increased to 95%.
  ​Target Return: We remain firmly on track to achieve a 2.3% ROI on this trade.
  ​Action: No action required. We are simply monitoring the position as it moves toward our exit target.

• March 14th: Market Performance vs. Strategy Resilience
  The S&P 500 dropped another 0.61% yesterday, closing at 6,632. However, our position remains incredibly resilient, down only a marginal 0.16%.
  This is a textbook example of the benefits of High-Probability Index Trading: while the market continues to slide, our "delta" (price sensitivity) is cushioned by our distance from the strike price.
  ​The Safety Margin
  As we look toward the March 31st expiration, the math remains firmly on our side:
  - Current Level: 6,632
  - Breakeven Buffer: The S&P 500 can fall an additional 7.31% from current levels before the trade is at risk at expiry.
  - Probability of Profit: This trade maintains a robust statistical advantage of over 90%.
  ​The Outlook
  We remain confident in the original trade thesis and the current risk-reward profile.
  - Target Return: We still anticipate yielding a circa 2% ROI on this trade before expiration.
  - Current Action: No action required. We are letting the probability and the clock work in our favor.

• March 13th:
  ​Market Context: The S&P 500 dropped 1.52% yesterday, causing our position to slip slightly into the red, currently down 0.24%. This move was accompanied by the VIX jumping back to 28, which temporarily inflated option premiums and suppressed our "paper" profit.
  ​The Resilience of the Strategy: While the daily fluctuation isn't ideal to look at, the structural integrity of the trade remains remarkably high:
  - Margin of Safety: The S&P 500 could fall another 8% from yesterday’s close before we reach our breakeven point at the March 31st expiration.
  - Statistical Edge: Based on yesterday’s close, the trade still maintains a 93% probability of profit.
  ​The Outlook: Volatility spikes like this are part of the process when selling puts. We are staying focused on the end goal:
  - Target Return: We still expect to realize a return of approximately 2% ROI on this trade by month-end.
  - Current Action: No action required. We are not reacting to short-term swings and will continue to let the trade run its course.

• March 12th: Up 0.63%. Nothing to do with this trade for now. See previous updates for further information.
• March 11th Market Snapshot:
  The S&P 500 closed down a marginal 0.2% yesterday—a non-event compared to the extreme volatility we witnessed earlier in the week. Our position is currently sitting at a 0.52% profit.
  ​Volatility & Premium Decay:
  The VIX has retreated further to close at 25. While this remains slightly elevated, the "panic" has clearly subsided.
  ​The Outlook: As the VIX continues its descent toward the 20 level, we expect option premiums to contract sharply.
  ​Exit Target: This drop in volatility will allow us to exit the trade with approximately 75% of our maximum profit.
  ​The Probability Advantage:
  Despite the recent headlines, the math remains overwhelmingly in our favor:
  - Margin of Safety: We are still trading 9% above our breakeven price.
  - Statistical Edge: This trade currently carries a 97% probability of profit.
  ​Action:
  Nothing to do here. We are staying patient and letting the combination of time decay and falling volatility bring us to our profit target.
• March 10th: Market Rebound: Back in the Green: What a difference 24 hours makes. Our patience has been rewarded, and the trade has officially swung back into a 0.63% profit.
  The primary catalysts for this recovery include:
  - G7 Intervention: Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors held an emergency meeting to signal "managed urgency," successfully cooling fears of a global energy shock.
  - Geopolitical Assurances: Market sentiment improved significantly following President Trump's announcement that the US Navy will escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, backed by government-provided political risk insurance.
  - Oil & VIX Retraction: Crude oil has retreated below the $100/barrel mark, and the VIX has dropped back to 25, easing the pressure on equity futures.
  ​The Game Plan: Locking in Gains: With the volatility subsiding, we are now shifting from "holding" to "harvesting" our profit.
  - Current Status: The trade is back in positive territory.
  - Exit Strategy: We have placed a limit order to buy back (close) our 6150 short put at 8.
  - Target Return: If this limit is triggered, we will exit the trade with a total gain of approximately 2.25%.
  - Current Stance: Nothing to do but wait. We are letting our limit order sit in the market to capture the profit as time decay and falling volatility do their work.

• March 9th: Market Conditions: It has been a volatile start to the week. The US trade 500 is currently down 2.8%, driven by a sharp spike in oil prices which crossed the $100 threshold. This geopolitical tension caused S&P 500 futures to drop as much as 2% earlier today, though they have since recovered slightly to a 1% decline.
  ​S&P 500 Futures: Currently trading around 6,667.
  ​VIX (Fear Gauge): Has spiked to 34, reflecting heightened market anxiety.
  ​The "Safety Buffer" While the headlines are focused on the "panic," our trade remains mathematically sound:
  ​Distance to Breakeven: We are still approximately 8% above our breakeven price below 6150.
  ​Profit Target: The S&P 500 can fall another 8% from current levels of 6667 before March 31st, and we will still realize a full profit.
  ​Our Contingency Plan: We are not reacting to short-term noise. We will continue to let the trade run its course according to our rules. However, we have a clear line in the sand:
  ​Key Level: If the S&P 500 falls to 6,300, we will proactively initiate our "Rollout and Down" strategy to manage the risk.
  ​Current Stance: No action required. Stay disciplined. Watch video explanation below:

• March 7th: The S&P 500 closed down 1.3% yesterday, ending at 6,740. This recent volatility has resulted in a temporary unrealized loss of 1.57% on our current position. Despite the short-term price action, it is vital to stay focused on the trade mechanics:
  - Strike Price: 6,150
  - Buffer: The index can fall an additional 9% from current levels before the trade is at risk.
  - Expiration: March 31, 2026
  As long as the S&P 500 stays above 6,150 through the end of the month, the trade will deliver its full profit. Currently, this position maintains a 90%+ probability of success.
  ​Action: No action required. We are sticking with the plan and letting time decay work in our favor.

• March 6th: The trade is currently performing well, up 0.61%. However, our priority today is capital preservation over the weekend. Should the trade reach a 1% profit during today’s session, we will be hitting the exit button. With geopolitical tensions remaining high in the Middle East, we believe the prudent move is to avoid "weekend risk" and secure our gains today, if possible. If we don't we still have plenty of wiggle room for this trade go wrong.

Stage 3: The Exit (Taking Profits):

The market bounced exactly as expected, and we hit our profit target in record time.

• Closing Date: March 23rd
• The Decision: We captured 75% of the maximum profit in just 18 days. We bought back the short 6150 put option at a premium of 8*12= $96
• Profit: $362.40-$96 = $266.40 = €228
• ROI: 2.3% (Account size was €10K)
• The Rule: Take the money, reduce time-at-risk, and wait for the next setup.

📊 Final Challenge Stats

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Please note: This is an educational exercise using a demo account. Share Navigator does not provide financial advice.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

🚀 XSP/SPY CHALLENGE: XSP/SPY Index Trade (+2.22%)

Status: Trade Closed | Platform: Interactive Brokers (IBKR) | Execution: 18-Day Turnaround Strategy: High-Probability Short Put

RESULT: 2.22%

🕒 The Trade Timeline

Stage 1: The Entry (Thursday, March 5th)

The market provided a high-probability entry point. We sold "out-of-the-money" insurance to the market, giving us a massive cushion for error.

• The Strategy: Short Put (97% Probability of Profit)
• Strike Price: $615 (Price was $678 at entry — a 10% safety buffer)
• Expiry: March 31st
• Premium Collected: $299 per contract

🎥 Video Walkthrough:

Stage 2: Live Updates:

• March 23rd: Trade closed for a proift of 2.22% after costs.
• March 23rd: Market Update: Navigating Volatility & Trade Adjustments
  Stock futures are down again this morning, currently sitting at just under 1% lower. I’ll be providing a more detailed update later today once US traders enter the futures market and we see more volume.
  ​Current Positions & Strategy
  - March Trade: Our 615 short put currently has a 5% cushion above the futures price.
  - The Plan: If we hit 6300 (roughly 3% from current levels), we won't take any chances. We will look to roll out and down immediately to protect the position.
  - Volatility: The VIX has jumped again, which is driving up option premiums across the board.
  ​Looking Ahead
  While this sell-off is creating a fantastic opportunity for our upcoming April trade, our primary focus is navigating the existing March position with discipline. I’ll post a follow-up once we have greater clarity.
  ​S&P 500 Buying Opportunity
  For those waiting for an entry point into the S&P 500: we are fast approaching the window to begin Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). It is still a little too early for my liking, but the levels are getting much more attractive.
  Stay tuned for more updates later today.
• March 21st: Market Analysis: Volatility Returns
  The S&P 500 faced another round of selling yesterday, dropping 1.51%. This move pushed the VIX back up to 27, reflecting a renewed sense of caution in the markets.
  ​The Power of High-Probability Trading
  While a 1.5% drop would be a loss for most investors, our position remains in positive territory. This is the core benefit of the ShareNavigator approach:
  - Position Status: Currently up 0.92%.
  - The Resilience Factor: Despite the index falling and volatility rising, our "Buffer" is doing exactly what it was designed to do. We are still 6.26% above our strike price.
  ​The Stats: 7 Trading Days to Go
  We are entering the final stretch of the March cycle. The math remains heavily in our favor:
  - Probability of Profit: Still a dominant 96%.
  - Safety Margin: 6.26% distance to our 615 strike.
  - Exit Target: We are sticking to our disciplined plan to exit at 75% of maximum profit (circa 2.3% ROI).
  ​Weekend Strategy
  ​Current Action: No action required. Over the next 48 hours, the markets are closed, but "Theta" (time decay) never sleeps. We expect the passage of time over the weekend to help offset yesterday’s volatility spike when we open on Monday.
• March 20th: The "Volatility Crush" in Action
  Yesterday provided a textbook lesson in professional options trading. While the S&P 500 fell another 0.28%, our position actually increased in value, climbing to a 1.79% gain.
  ​How is this possible? Even though the index dropped slightly, the Volatility Index (VIX) pulled back. As "fear" leaves the market, the price of the puts we sold decreases, allowing our profit to grow despite the downward move in the underlying index.
  ​The Weekend Advantage
  As we head into the weekend, the math remains overwhelmingly in our favor:
  - Current Gain: 1.79%
  - Distance to Strike: We are still 6.86% above our 6,150 strike price.
  - Probability of Profit: Our statistical edge has strengthened to 98%.
  - Time to Expiry: Only 8 trading days remaining.
  ​The Final Target
  We are now very close to our exit point. We are sticking to the disciplined plan:
  - Exit Target: 75% of maximum potential profit.
  - Target ROI: Approximately 2.3%.
  ​Action: No action required. We will benefit from two "free" days of time decay (Theta) over the Saturday/Sunday break. We expect to be very close to our profit target when the opening bell rings on Monday morning.

• March 19th: Market Analysis: Macro Headwinds The S&P 500 fell 1.3% yesterday as a "triple threat" of factors impacted sentiment:
  - Inflation Data: Hotter-than-expected data has kept the pressure on the markets.
  - The Federal Reserve: Recent indications suggest the Fed is taking a neutral stance—neither hawkish nor dovish—which has caused expectations for near-term interest rate cuts to fade.
  - Energy Prices: A resumption in the rise of oil prices added further weight to the index.
  ​Position Resilience
  Despite the broader market drop, our 6150 Short Put remains remarkably stable. While we have temporarily given up some of our recent gains, the position is still up 1.2%.
  ​The Final Countdown (9 Trading Days to Expiry)
  With only 9 trading days remaining until the March 31st expiration, time decay (Theta) is now our strongest ally:
  - Distance to Strike: We remain 7% above our strike price.
  - Probability of Profit: Our statistical edge remains extremely high at 97%.
  - Exit Target: We are sticking to our disciplined plan to exit at 75% of maximum profit, targeting a circa 2.3% ROI.
  ​Action: No action required. We are staying the course. With less than two weeks to go, we are letting the clock do the work while the market digests the recent Fed news.
• March 18th: Profit Surge: 99% Probability Reached
  The trade has seen a significant jump in performance over the last 24 hours. Following yesterday's rally in the S&P 500 and a continued push higher in the futures this morning, our position is now up 2.2%.
  ​The Macro Tailwinds
  Two key factors are driving this rapid appreciation:
  - Crude Oil Subsiding: Oil futures have begun to pull back as supply concerns ease (with news of Iraqi exports resuming via Turkey). This has removed the immediate "energy shock" premium from the market.
  - VIX Contraction: The VIX has pulled back significantly, directly benefiting our short put position as the "fear juice" in the option price evaporates.
  ​The Stats
  - Probability of Profit: Now at a dominant 99%.
  - Current Gain: 2.2% in jusy 13 days!
  - Target Exit: 2.3% ROI.
  ​The Game Plan: Harvesting 75% of Max Profit
  We are now at the finish line. Our strategy dictates closing this trade once we reach a 2.3% ROI, which represents 75% of the maximum potential profit available on the trade.
  ​Current Action: We are keeping our limit orders in place. Once we hit that 2.3% mark, we will exit, lock in the gains, and move to the sidelines to wait for the next high-probability setup.

• March 17th: Market Momentum & Profit Acceleration
  The S&P 500 delivered a solid performance yesterday, closing up 1%. Consequently, our position has accelerated and is now sitting at a 1.2% profit.
  We are seeing a dual benefit here: the market is moving higher (Delta), and the "fear premium" is melting away as stability returns.
  ​Key Metrics at a Glance
  Our statistical advantage continues to widen as we approach the final two weeks of the March cycle:
  - Margin of Safety: We are now 8.14% above our breakeven price.
  - Probability of Profit: Our edge has strengthened to a dominant 98%.
  - ROI Target: We remain firmly on track to hit our 2.3% ROI goal.
  ​The Game Plan
  ​Current Action: No action required. The math is doing the heavy lifting now. We are simply letting time decay (Theta) erode the remaining premium as we glide toward our exit target.
• March 16th: Monday Morning Momentum
  We are starting the week on a high note. S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.7%, and our position has responded positively, now sitting at a 0.8% profit.
  The time decay (Theta) over the weekend, combined with this morning's upward price action, has moved us significantly closer to our profit target.
  ​The Numbers
  The trade mechanics remain exceptionally strong as we head into the final two weeks of the month:
  - Current Buffer: We remain 7.7% above our breakeven price.
  - Probability of Profit: Our statistical edge has increased to 95%.
  ​Target Return: We remain firmly on track to achieve a 2.3% ROI on this trade.
  ​Action: No action required. We are simply monitoring the position as it moves toward our exit target.

• March 14th: Market Performance vs. Strategy Resilience
  The S&P 500 dropped another 0.61% yesterday, closing at 6,632. However, our position in XSP remains incredibly resilient, down only a marginal 0.21%.
  This is a textbook example of the benefits of High-Probability Index Trading: while the market continues to slide, our "delta" (price sensitivity) is cushioned by our distance from the strike price.
  ​The Safety Margin
  As we look toward the March 31st expiration, the math remains firmly on our side:
  - Current Level: 6,632
  - Breakeven Buffer: The S&P 500 can fall an additional 7.31% from current levels before the trade is at risk at expiry.
  - Probability of Profit: This trade maintains a robust statistical advantage of over 90%.
  ​The Outlook
  We remain confident in the original trade thesis and the current risk-reward profile.
  - Target Return: We still anticipate yielding a circa 2% ROI on this trade before expiration.
  - Current Action: No action required. We are letting the probability and the clock work in our favor.
• March 13th:
  ​Market Context: The S&P 500 dropped 1.52% yesterday, causing our position to slip slightly into the red, currently down 0.24%. This move was accompanied by the VIX jumping back to 28, which temporarily inflated option premiums and suppressed our "paper" profit.
  ​The Resilience of the Strategy: While the daily fluctuation isn't ideal to look at, the structural integrity of the trade remains remarkably high:
  - Margin of Safety: The S&P 500 could fall another 8% from yesterday’s close before we reach our breakeven point at the March 31st expiration.
  - Statistical Edge: Based on yesterday’s close, the trade still maintains a 93% probability of profit.
  ​The Outlook: Volatility spikes like this are part of the process when selling puts. We are staying focused on the end goal:
  - Target Return: We still expect to realize a return of approximately 2% ROI on this trade by month-end.
  - Current Action: No action required. We are not reacting to short-term swings and will continue to let the trade run its course.
• March 12th: Up 0.63%. Nothing to do with this trade for now. See previous updates for further information.
• March 11th Market Snapshot:
  The S&P 500 closed down a marginal 0.2% yesterday—a non-event compared to the extreme volatility we witnessed earlier in the week. Our position is currently sitting at a 0.54% profit.
  ​Volatility & Premium Decay:
  The VIX has retreated further to close at 25. While this remains slightly elevated, the "panic" has clearly subsided.
  ​The Outlook: As the VIX continues its descent toward the 20 level, we expect option premiums to contract sharply.
  ​Exit Target: This drop in volatility will allow us to exit the trade with approximately 75% of our maximum profit.
  ​The Probability Advantage:
  Despite the recent headlines, the math remains overwhelmingly in our favor:
  - Margin of Safety: We are still trading 9% above our breakeven price.
  - Statistical Edge: This trade currently carries a 97% probability of profit.
  ​Action:
  Nothing to do here. We are staying patient and letting the combination of time decay and falling volatility bring us to our profit target.

• March 10th:
  ​Market Rebound:
  Back in the Green! What a difference 24 hours makes. Our patience has been rewarded, and the trade has officially swung back into a 0.67% profit.
  The primary catalysts for this recovery include:
  1. G7 Intervention:
  Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors held an emergency meeting to signal "managed urgency," successfully cooling fears of a global energy shock.
  2. Geopolitical Assurances:
  Market sentiment improved significantly following President Trump's announcement that the US Navy will escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, backed by government-provided political risk insurance.
  3. Oil & VIX Retraction:
  Crude oil has retreated below the $100/barrel mark, and the VIX has dropped back to 25, easing the pressure on equity futures.
  ​The Game Plan:
  With the volatility subsiding, we are now shifting from to "harvesting" our profit.
  ​Current Status:
  The trade is back in positive territory.
  ​Exit Strategy:
  We will buy back our 615 short put when we get to circa 75% of maximum profit.
  ​Target Return:
  If this t is triggered, we will exit the trade with a total gain of approximately 2%.
  ​Current Stance:
  Nothing to do but wait.
  ​
• March 9th:
  ​Market Conditions:
  It has been a volatile start to the week. The S&P 500 is down 1%, driven by a sharp spike in oil prices which crossed the $100 threshold. This geopolitical tension caused S&P 500 futures to drop as much as 2% earlier today, though they have since recovered slightly to a 1% decline.
  ​S&P 500 Futures:
  Currently trading around 6,667.
  ​VIX (Fear Gauge):
  Has spiked to 34, reflecting heightened market anxiety.
  ​The "Safety Buffer":
  ​ While the headlines are focused on the "panic," our trade remains mathematically sound:
  ​Distance to Breakeven:
  We are still approximately 8% above our breakeven price below 615.
  ​Profit Target:
  The S&P 500 can fall another 8% from current levels of 6667 before March 31st, and we will still realize a full profit.
  ​Our Contingency Plan:
  We are not reacting to short-term noise. We will continue to let the trade run its course according to our rules. However, we have a clear line in the sand:
  ​Key Level:
  If the XSP falls to 630, we will proactively initiate our "Rollout and Down" strategy to manage the risk.
  ​Current Stance:
  No action required. Stay disciplined. Watch video explanation below:

• March 7th: The S&P 500 closed down 1.3% yesterday, ending at 6,740. This recent volatility has resulted in a temporary unrealized loss of 1.35% on our current position. Despite the short-term price action, it is vital to stay focused on the trade mechanics:
  - Strike Price: 615
  - Buffer: The index can fall an additional 9% from current levels before the trade is at risk.
  - Expiration: March 31, 2026
  As long as the S&P 500 stays above 6,150 through the end of the month, the trade will deliver its full profit. Currently, this position maintains a 90%+ probability of success.
  ​Action: No action required. We are sticking with the plan and and letting time decay work in our favor.
• March 6th: The trade is currently performing well, up 0.58%. However, our priority today is capital preservation over the weekend. Should the trade reach a 1% profit during today’s session, we will be hitting the exit button. With geopolitical tensions remaining high in the Middle East, we believe the prudent move is to avoid "weekend risk" and secure our gains now.

Stage 3: The Exit

The S&P 500 rallied strongly. Because of the quick move and current geopolitical uncertainty (Middle East), we decided to bank our gains.

• The Action: Buy to Close (BTC) at $75
• The Result: $222 Profit (2.22% Return on Margin) in just 18 days.

📊 Final Trade Metrics

🛡 Trade Management Rules Applied

1. The 24-Hour Rule: If we capture a significant portion of our monthly goal in 18 days, we close the trade.
2. Risk Mitigation: With volatility high in the Middle East, "Profit in the bank" is better than "Premium on the table."
3. Roll Plan: Had the S&P 500 hit $630 (within 2% of strike), our plan was to roll the position to April. Fortunately, the market bounced.

📈 What’s Next?

We have successfully closed both the US 500 and XSP positions. We are now 100% in cash for this segment of the Challenge. We are waiting for the next "oversold" signal to re-apply this 90%+ probability strategy.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Please note: This is an educational exercise using a demo account. Share Navigator does not provide financial advice.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Details

• Trade Log and Performance Tracking: Stephen Cox began by highlighting the trade log available in the members area, accessible via the knowledge base, which allows members to track the performance of trades, including those related to Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and the US 500. The US 500 portfolio, based on a $10,000 account, is currently up 6.92%, significantly outpacing the S\&P 500's 0.36% increase during the same period, moving toward a 30% goal. An app featuring this dashboard is scheduled to be launched in the next four to six weeks, which will provide easier access to trade data.
• Analysis of Recent Short-Term Trade Exit: Stephen Cox discussed the decision to close a trade after only one day, which was prompted by a quick drop in the VIX volatility index after a period of high volatility when the option premium was sold. The strategy is based on selling insurance policies, and higher volatility results in more expensive premiums, making it a better time to sell. Taking a 1.5% profit quickly was deemed prudent given global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, which increase market volatility.
• Rationale for Current Market Position and Global Events: The decision to close the trade early was also influenced by the belief that the market is likely to trend sideways or slightly lower due to global conflicts impacting energy supply and business costs. Stephen Cox suggested that the conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to drag on for too long, as the US administration ran on a platform against involvement in such conflicts and Iran may also want to return to negotiating. This outlook suggests that the market will likely bounce around sideways, potentially leaning slightly lower, but without a massive selloff.
• Re-entry Strategy Based on Volatility and Futures Market Observation: The rationale for closing the trade was to secure profit and potentially re-enter the exact same trade if futures dropped again, especially since the VIX might increase again to offer a higher premium. Stephen Cox noted that the premium for the same option quote is now higher than the cost paid to close it yesterday, demonstrating the benefit of the early exit. They indicated that the re-entry point for the S&P 500 would be when it drops to around the $6,800 level again, allowing them to collect more premium.
• Discussion of Futures Market Trading Trends: Stephen Cox addressed a question regarding the trend where futures often show a significant pre-market selloff that tends to dissipate when the cash market opens. While this trend exists currently, they advised against relying on it as a core trading strategy because it can reverse, and the core principle of the current strategy is to maintain plenty of leeway against adverse market moves.
• Trading Strategy and Risk Management Principles: Stephen Cox reiterated that the preferred strategy involves giving the market sufficient leeway (e.g., 10% fall protection over three to four weeks) to minimize trouble on the trade. They emphasized that this strategy of selling put option premium is the safest way to generate consistent income in the current market, especially when compared to trying to cherry-pick individual stocks. The trade discussed had a 99% probability of profit, which highlights the advantage of using volatility.
• Inquiry on Bid/Offer Spread and Broker Practices: Brendan O'Reilly 262626 asked Stephen Cox about whether IG's bid/offer spread is entirely driven by supply and demand and if they close down consistently winning traders. Stephen Cox stated that the spread in IG is consistently 150 across every strike and that the broker profits from this spread. Stephen Cox suggested that IG should be hedging their risk in the futures market.
• Analysis of Select Individual Equity Stocks: Stephen Cox noted that buying stocks is currently difficult but identified Oracle as becoming interesting, having broken out of a downtrend after a 60% sell-off. Although buying before earnings is risky, the current price is a significant discount, and models suggest up to 27% potential upside. Salesforce and Nvidia are also showing similar positive signs, with Nvidia and Microsoft being considered cheap, but it may still be too early to commit to purchasing.
• Review of Bonds and TLT Strategy: Stephen Cox reviewed the bond market, noting that yields are starting to normalize after a flight to safety, and suggested they will likely operate between 3.75% and 4.5%. The TLT Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), which tracks US government bonds, is recommended as a safer asset, paying a 4% annual dividend and can be bought when bond yields are high. One participant, Stephen Vajda, confirmed they successfully sold 500 shares of TLT.
• Risks and Safer Strategies for Trading Oil: Stephen Cox expressed concern about people trading oil, emphasizing that the duration of the current conflict is unknown, making oil a high-risk trade. Given the risk of a sharp decline if talks emerge and the Strait of Hormuz opens, Stephen Cox advised that buying oil at this time is a "huge risk". They recommended that anyone determined to trade oil should use debit spreads, such as a bare put spread using USO (the oil proxy ETF), to cap potential losses.
• Guidance on Debit Spread Mechanics for Oil Speculation: Stephen Cox provided an example of using a bare put spread for oil, where one would buy a higher strike and sell a lower strike with the same expiry, ensuring that the maximum loss is known in advance. For those betting on an increase in oil prices, a bull call spread (buying a lower strike call and selling a higher strike call) was explained, emphasizing that it provides a defined risk-to-reward ratio. Stephen Cox suggested referring to the options courses in the knowledge base for a full understanding of these directional spreads.
• TLT and Tax Implications for Investors: Patrick raised a question about the tax implications of TLT, to which Stephen Cox confirmed that the dividend is subject to a 30% withholding tax for non-US investors. Any capital gain from selling TLT is treated as a capital gain, and TLT is generally a safer investment than the S&P 500, but is still a directional bet to be used when US government bond yields are believed to have peaked.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call or face to face strategy session.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie