Hi there,

We just closed out of JDW.L (Weatherspoons) as it hit our target price of £750. We bought the stock January at £604 and received in 12 pence per share in dividends. Total ROI 26.16% in 331 days.

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Hi there,

See below minutes from today's meeting and also the video recording. Feel Free to reach out if you have any questions.

Video Recording

Summary

Stephen Cox provided the holiday schedule, noting the continuation of daily market updates and support via WhatsApp, and outlined changes for the new year regarding option trade alert distribution and platform access via the "knowledge base" and Equity Scan messenger tab.
He analyzed the S&P 500, suggesting a potential bearish double top or head and shoulders pattern and predicting a higher market next year unless a recession is triggered by a selloff in Bitcoin or stocks.
​
Stephen Cox detailed the first trade being lined up for 2026—a speculative short put on SPY—which is currently on hold due to low IV rank, and addressed Pat O'Brien's inquiry about the required account size, leading to a discussion on transforming the trade into a bull put spread for the IBKR 10K account and demonstrating a single-contract trade on the IG index platform with an automated risk management strategy.
Stephen Cox also analyzed the oil market, suggesting trading strategies using USO or micro futures contracts, provided updates on current stock portfolio holdings (Alaska, Flutter, and Weather Spoons), and offered strategies for managing gold positions, including buying put options for protection.

Details

• Holiday Schedule and Support Stephen Cox wished everyone a happy Christmas and prosperous New Year, announcing that this is the last group web meeting of the year, with no scheduled web meetings for the next two weeks. He confirmed that daily market updates and support via WhatsApp will continue, and they would organize an emergency web meeting if market conditions warrant it (00:05:53).
• Changes to Option Trade Alerts and Platform Access Stephen Cox introduced a change for the new year on how option trade alerts will be distributed for both IG Index and IBKR, and how trades will be recorded, accessed, and followed (00:05:53). Participants should log in to the website to access more material, specifically by navigating to the "knowledge base," where a new folder called "trades and portfolios" has been created for the trade templates and logs for the simulated 10K accounts for 2026 options (00:07:03). Logged-in users can also use a messenger tab in the bottom right corner of Equity Scan for quick links to news feeds, including option trades, and to start a conversation with him or schedule a mentoring session (00:09:49).
• S&P 500 Market Analysis and Outlook Stephen Cox discussed the potential for a double top or head and shoulders pattern in the S\&P 500, indicating a bearish sign if the market breaks below the current area (00:11:31). He suggested a retest of the S\&P 500 around 660-650, citing rotation out of the "Mag 7" stocks, which account for a large percentage of the S\&P 500, as the primary culprit for market weakness (00:12:41). Stephen Cox predicted the market would go higher next year, potentially into the mid-700s, unless the US economy goes into a recession, which could be triggered by a selloff in Bitcoin or stocks (00:14:56).
• Lining Up the First Trade: Short Put Strategy Stephen Cox detailed the first trade they are lining up for 2026, a speculative short put on the S\&P 500 (SPY) using the 640 strike for the IBKR 10K account (00:15:54). Although the 92% probability of success and the 6.5% buffer before losing money look favorable, the trade is currently on hold because the premiums are not high enough due to a low IV rank of 11 (00:17:00). Pat O'Brien inquired about the required account size for a single short put contract, which Stephen Cox estimated to be around 20K to manage the margin effectively (00:17:53) (00:19:40).
• IBKR vs. IG Index and Trade Adjustments Stephen Cox demonstrated that on a 10K IBKR account, a single short put would require more margin than available, necessitating the transformation of the trade into a bull put spread to limit risk (00:17:53). He also shared that an algorithm is being developed for IG index accounts to automate the trading strategy, including placing the put option, rolling it out and down under pressure, and stopping out at specific parameters (00:19:40). Using the IG index platform, Stephen Cox demonstrated placing the trade with a bet size of 20 at the 6,400 strike, resulting in a potential tax-free profit of $520 in one month, representing over a 5% return on investment (00:20:34).
• Risk Management and Automation Stephen Cox outlined the risk management strategy for the IG index trade, which involves rolling out to the next month's expiry and down to a lower strike price to adjust the break-even point if the trade comes under pressure (00:22:42). The automatic trigger for rolling the trade will be if the US 500 price gets within 1% of the strike price (e.g., reaching 6,500 for the 6,400 strike) (00:23:46). Stephen Cox emphasized they will document and record all trade actions and updates in the news feed (00:24:53).
• Oil Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Stephen Cox discussed oil prices stabilizing at significant lows not seen since COVID due to factors like lower demand from the struggling Chinese economy, excess supply, and talks of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia (00:25:50). They suggested trading oil through conservative options like buying USO (an ETF) or by buying riskier call options on USO or the micro futures contract (MCL), going out 60 to 90 days to increase the chance of winning (00:26:53). Trading oil using call options on the IG index platform can also be done, structured as a tax-free bet for UK and Ireland residents, where the bet size dictates potential profit or loss (00:29:59).
• Updates on Stock Portfolio Holdings Stephen Cox provided updates on current stock holdings, noting they are still waiting for Alaska to reach $55 and will hold onto Flutter (00:32:18). They are preparing to sell Weather Spoons once it closes near the target price of 750, with an alert already set. Stephen Cox reminded attendees that updates on the long-term buy and hold portfolio stocks, including their thought process and target prices, are available in Equity Scan (00:33:20).
• Gold Market and Position Management Stephen Cox noted that gold has retested its highs, suggesting that investors who have made significant profits might consider buying put options to protect their position without realizing the profit in the current tax year (00:34:15). They also suggested waiting until January to see if the gold ceiling is broken; if not, selling then and buying back in cheaper later could be an option (00:35:10).

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​

Hi there,

Wednesday, December 17, 2025, was defined by a major divergence in the markets. While "AI concentration fears" triggered a significant pullback in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, a newly announced US oil blockade on Venezuela sent crude oil and gold prices higher.

📈 Equities (Stocks)

US indices ended the day sharply lower as the recent tech-led rally faced a reality check:

• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -1.81% to close at 22,693.32.
• The S&P 500 fell -1.16% to close at 6,721.43, its fourth consecutive daily loss.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -0.47%, ending the session at 47,885.96.

Market Movers: The "AI trade" took a hit as investors questioned high valuations. Broadcom (AVGO) dropped nearly -5%, and Nvidia (NVDA) fell -3.8%. However, it wasn't all red: the medical supply distributor Medline (MDLN) made a spectacular Nasdaq debut, surging +40% in its IPO. Micron Technology (MU) also bucked the trend, gaining +3% on positive earnings.

🪙 Crypto

The cryptocurrency market continued to trade like a high-beta risk asset, struggling to find a bottom as institutional outflows persisted.

• Bitcoin (BTC) fell by approximately -1.1%, trading near $86,741. The asset remains under pressure from two straight days of US spot ETF redemptions.
• Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, declining -1.0% to finish near $2,921.
• Despite the price weakness, corporate accumulation remains a theme, with reports showing major firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Fidelity continuing to scoop up Bitcoin during this period of price consolidation.

🏛️ Bonds

US Treasury yields edged higher as the market digested fresh geopolitical risks and comments from Fed officials.

• The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note advanced to 4.17%.
• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled that while a weakening jobs market justifies continued rate cuts, the central bank must remain "careful," which the market interpreted as a slightly more hawkish stance than anticipated.

💰 Commodities

Geopolitics took center stage yesterday, leading to a massive spike in energy and safe-haven metals:

• Brent Crude Oil jumped +2.3% to settle above $60.24 per barrel, and WTI Crude climbed over +1.3%. This was triggered by President Trump's order of a "total and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela.
• Gold (XAU/USD) advanced +0.3% to trade near $4,316 per ounce, approaching its October record.
• Silver stole the show, powering to a new all-time record high above $66 per ounce, up nearly 130% year-to-date, driven by both safe-haven demand and massive industrial appetite from data centers and EVs.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by +0.3%, benefiting from a combination of safe-haven flows and rising Treasury yields.

• The Euro (EUR) fell -0.2% to $1.1720.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened significantly, falling -0.5% to 155.46 per dollar.
• The British Pound (GBP) was the weakest major currency, dropping -0.7% to $1.3330.

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Hi there,

📅 Market Review for Monday, December 15, 2025

Monday, December 15, 2025, saw US indices slip lower in a subdued session. The market was characterized by risk-aversion, with investors reducing exposure to volatile sectors ahead of a torrent of delayed economic data, including a major employment report due today.

📈 Equities (Stocks)

All three major US indices closed lower as pressure continued to build in the technology sector:

• The Nasdaq Composite fell by -0.59%, closing at $23,057.41. This marks the fourth straight session of weakness, fueled by continued profit-taking and anxiety over AI stock valuations.
• The S&P 500 slipped by -0.16%, closing at $6,816.34, unable to gain traction after last week's sharp pullback.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased marginally by -0.09%, showing relative stability compared to the Nasdaq as investors favored defensives.

The primary drag came from the Technology and AI sectors. A price-target cut for Broadcom (AVGO) intensified caution, contributing to a sense of unease that valuations in the chip and AI space are stretched. Conversely, defensive stocks like Hershey gained on an analyst upgrade, and the small-cap Kyverna Therapeutics soared by over +30% on positive clinical trial data, bucking the broader market trend.

🪙 Crypto

The digital asset market suffered a steep decline, reversing recent gains as risk appetite waned.

• Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp drop, falling by over -3.0% during the US trading session to trade around $85,800 (CoinDesk Index value), breaking below the $90,000 level after a challenging weekend.
• The significant drop in crypto asset prices underscored the overall flight from risk and high-beta assets ahead of the US data deluge.

🏛️ Bonds

US Treasury yields eased slightly, a marginal reversal after recent gains.

• The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note declined slightly, falling to 4.181% from Friday's close of 4.19%. This modest drop in yield (rise in bond prices) suggested that investor focus remains firmly on the weak economic signals that could force the Federal Reserve into deeper rate cuts next year.

💰 Commodities

Commodity markets were under pressure:

• WTI Crude Oil futures fell by over -2.0%, settling near $56.49 per barrel. Oil prices were weighed down by growing global oversupply concerns and the general risk-off mood, which dampened the demand outlook.
• Gold saw a modest rise, gaining approximately +0.45% to trade near $4,299 per ounce. Gold benefited from its safe-haven status as investors sought defensive exposure amid the uncertainty in equities and the falling crude oil prices.
• US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures also fell, declining by over -2.0% to settle near $4.01 per MMBtu, as some short-term weather forecasts showed moderation.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the day essentially flat, trading near 98.39.

• The Dollar remained subdued, caught between its safe-haven appeal (due to equity weakness) and the dampening effect of high expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• The focus in the FX market now shifts entirely to the upcoming US payrolls report for a clearer directional signal.

The market's immediate focus is on today's release of the delayed US Payrolls and unemployment report. This jobs data will be critical in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path in 2026.

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• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
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Hi there,

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Tuesday, December 16, 2025, was a challenging day for the broader market. A delayed and disappointing jobs report sent the unemployment rate to its highest level since 2021, while crude oil plummeted to nearly five-year lows, triggering a sharp sell-off in energy stocks.

📈 Equities (Stocks)

US indices turned in a mixed performance as investors balanced weak labor data against a slight recovery in tech:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by -0.62% (approx. 300 points), closing at 48,114.27.
• The S&P 500 fell for the third straight session, losing -0.24% to close at 6,800.26.
• The Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend, gaining +0.23% to close at 23,111.46, snapping a three-day losing streak.

Market Movers: The energy sector was the biggest laggard; Phillips 66 (PSX) plunged nearly -7% and Exxon Mobil (XOM) fell -2.6% as oil prices crumbled. However, Tesla (TSLA) was a bright spot, surging +3.1% to a new all-time high following Elon Musk’s confirmation of robotaxi testing in Austin. AI favorites Nvidia (+1%) and Palantir (+2.5%) also helped support the Nasdaq.

🪙 Crypto

The digital asset market faced significant selling pressure, mirroring the "risk-off" mood seen in the broader macro environment.

• Bitcoin (BTC) fell by approximately -4.0%, sliding to trade near $86,280. Earlier in the session, it touched lows near $85,200, its weakest level in two weeks.
• Ethereum (ETH) suffered even sharper losses, dropping -6.9% to trade below the $3,000 level at approximately $2,930.
• The decline was attributed to heavy liquidations in the derivatives market following the weak US jobs data, which cooled appetite for speculative assets.

🏛️ Bonds

US Treasury yields saw their largest one-day decline in weeks as investors sought the safety of government debt following the weak employment data.

• The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note fell by 0.033 percentage points to 4.148%. This drop reflects growing concerns that a softening labor market may force the Federal Reserve to consider more aggressive rate cuts in early 2026.

💰 Commodities

Energy hit the headlines yesterday for all the wrong reasons, while precious metals held firm:

• WTI Crude Oil plummeted nearly -3%, briefly slipping below $55 per barrel—its lowest point in four years—due to a growing global surplus and fears of slowing demand.
• Gold (XAU/USD) remained a pillar of strength, trading near $4,302 per ounce. The combination of falling bond yields and general market jitters continues to support the bullish case for gold.
• US Natural Gas continued to trade near the $4.40 - $4.50 per MMBtu range, showing resilience relative to the crash in crude oil.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened as the disappointing jobs data weighed on the greenback.

• The Dollar eased against major peers like the Euro (EUR) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). The rise in unemployment to 4.6% has markets questioning the "higher for longer" narrative, naturally putting downward pressure on the currency.

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