Yesterday, Thursday, March 12, 2026, the markets faced renewed selling pressure as global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East resurfaced. While specific hardware names like Dell showed relative strength, the broader indices retreated as the VIX spiked, signaling a return of "risk-off" sentiment.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategies continue to deliver massive outperformance. Even with the latest market sell-off, our disciplined approach has kept our capital protected and our returns well ahead of the benchmark.

• US 500 Strategy: Up +6.69% YTD (vs. S&P 500 loss of -2.52%).
• XSP/SPY Strategy: Up +4.81% YTD.

US 500,XSP/SPY Challenge Updates:

Market Context The S&P 500 dropped 1.52% yesterday, causing our position to slip slightly into the red, currently down 0.24%. This move was accompanied by the VIX jumping back to 28, which temporarily inflated option premiums and suppressed our "paper" profit.

The Resilience of the Strategy While the daily fluctuation isn't ideal to look at, the structural integrity of the trade remains remarkably high:

• Margin of Safety: The S&P 500 could fall another 8% from yesterday’s close before we reach our breakeven point at the March 31st expiration.
• Statistical Edge: Based on yesterday’s close, the trade still maintains a 93% probability of profit.

The Outlook Volatility spikes like this are part of the process when selling puts. We are staying focused on the end goal:

• Target Return: We still expect to realize a return of approximately 2% ROI on this trade by month-end.
• Current Action: No action required. We are not reacting to short-term swings and will continue to let the trade run its course.

🚀 Earnings & Stock Spotlight

• Oracle (ORCL): Despite a massive AI-driven earnings beat earlier in the week, the stock faced a "sell the news" reaction in the broader sell-off, closing lower at $151.56. However, the long-term story remains intact with its $553B backlog.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): A rare bright spot yesterday. Dell climbed +1.72% to close at $149.91, as investors continue to reward its record AI server demand and dividend growth.
• NVDA (Nvidia): Faced pressure alongside the Nasdaq, slipping as the market recalibrates AI valuations amidst rising energy costs and a higher-for-longer rate environment.
  
  We are not a huge fan of buying individual stocks at the moment. However, we do believe buying opportunities are being created in select software names, NVDA and domestic airline stocks when the conflict in Iran ends.

📅 Market Review for Thursday, March 12, 2026

Overview: Wall Street's recovery hit a snag yesterday. Worries about the escalating conflict in the Middle East sent oil prices back toward the $100/barrel mark, acting as a tax on both consumers and corporations.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Slipped back below the $70,000 mark as traders moved away from speculative assets during the equity slide.
• VIX Index: Surged over 12% to reach 27.29 (peaking near 28 intraday), reflecting the "fear premium" returning to the option market.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -1.52%, closing at 6,672.32.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -1.80%, finishing at 22,311.98.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -1.60% (-739 points), closing at 46,677.85.
• WTI Crude Oil: Rebounded sharply toward $100.00 per barrel.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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