Market Review for Mar 13th 2026

Yesterday, Friday, March 13, 2026, Wall Street faced a volatile "Friday the 13th" session. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to pressure the global economy as oil prices spiked toward the $100/barrel mark. This served as a significant headwind for major indices, leading to a third consecutive week of losses for the S&P 500.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

Our strategies continue to highlight the massive benefits of high-probability trading in a falling market. While the benchmark index retreats, our capital remains protected and our year-to-date returns are substantially ahead.

• S&P 500 Index: Down -3.11% YTD.
• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +6.76% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Strategy (IBKR): Up +4.84% YTD.

Market Performance vs. Strategy Resilience The S&P 500 dropped another 0.61% yesterday, closing at 6,632.19. However, our position remains incredibly resilient, down only a marginal 0.16%. This is a textbook example of the benefits of High-Probability Index Trading: while the market continues to slide, our "delta" (price sensitivity) is cushioned by our distance from the strike price.

The Safety Margin As we look toward the March 31st expiration, the math remains firmly on our side:

• Current Level: 6,632.19.
• Breakeven Buffer: The S&P 500 can fall an additional 7.31% from current levels before the trade is at risk at expiry.
• Probability of Profit: This trade maintains a robust statistical advantage of over 90%.

The Outlook We remain confident in the original trade thesis and the current risk-reward profile:

• Target Return: We still anticipate yielding a circa 2% ROI on this trade before expiration.
• Current Action: No action required. We are letting the probability and the clock work in our favor.

📋 Long-Term Stock Buy & Hold Watchlist

While we are generally not fans of buying stocks right now due to the macro uncertainty, we are identifying significant value emerging in specific pockets of the market.

• Domestic Airlines: This sector has become exceptionally cheap due to the spike in fuel costs. We are specifically looking at names like Alaska Air (ALK), which are trading at levels that historically represent long-term value.
• Tech Leaders: We are also getting very close to pulling the trigger on NVDA, ORCL, and CRM. These companies remain best-in-class, but we are exercising extreme patience.
• The Catalyst: We are waiting for a clear sign that there is an "off-ramp" regarding the war in Iran. Once we see a path toward de-escalation, we expect these names to move sharply higher, and we will be ready to deploy our cash.

🏛️ FX & Crypto Review

• Bitcoin (BTC): Rose +1.00% to close near $71,173, showing some "digital gold" resilience despite the equity sell-off.
• VIX Index: Settled slightly lower at 26.93 after a volatile week, but remains elevated as investors brace for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

📈 Major Indices & Commodities

• S&P 500: Fell -0.61%, closing at 6,632.19.
• Nasdaq Composite: Dropped -0.93%, finishing at 22,105.36.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Slipped -0.26%, closing at 46,558.47.
• WTI Crude Oil: Jumped over 3% to reach $99.31 per barrel as supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified.Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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