Market Review for Mar 31st 2026

Yesterday, Monday, March 30, 2026, the market attempted a recovery that ultimately ran out of steam. While the morning session showed promise, the rally faded during the second half of the day, leading the S&P 500 to close down -0.39% at 6,343.73. This marked yet another short-term "lower low," keeping the bears in firm control as we head toward the end of the first quarter.

📉 Active Option Trade Tracker

We remain in a highly cautious "wait and see" mode. While sitting on the sidelines can feel passive, our performance speaks for itself—we have protected our capital while the benchmark has crumbled.

• US 500 Strategy (IG): Up +9.20% YTD.
• XSP/SPY Challenge (IBKR/MES): Up +7.27% YTD.
• S&P 500 Index: Down -7.32% YTD (based on yesterday's close).
• Alpha Delivered: +16.52% against the benchmark.

🚨 Market Analysis: The Chart Doesn't Lie

Looking at the attached daily chart of the S&P 500, several key technical factors are at play:

• The Downtrend is Intact: The index remains pinned below the 200-day moving average (the green line) and the red descending trendline. Until we break above these, the trend remains bearish.
• New Lows: Yesterday's close created another short-term low, signaling that buyers are not yet ready to step in with conviction.
• The Glimmer of Hope (RSI): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now reading 27.72, which is firmly in oversold territory. This suggests a bounce is overdue, but as we’ve noted before, this is not a trigger to buy just yet. We are waiting for a clear cross back above the 30 level.

📋 Strategy Update: Watching the "Juicy" Premiums

With the VIX holding steady near 30, option premiums are incredibly lucrative right now. However, volatility can be a double-edged sword, and we expect it could get even "juicier" if the current support levels fail to hold.

• Our Targets: We are closely monitoring the 5500 to 5200 strike prices for the April expiration.
• Current Action: Remaining Patient. We are not going to be lured into a trade just because premiums look good; we want the technical setup to align with the math. We will notify all members immediately if and when we decide to deploy cash.

🏛️ Market Sentiment & Futures

• Futures Update: Equity futures are pointing higher this morning by approximately +0.7%. The big question is whether this move can hold throughout the day or if it will be another "sell the rip" event like yesterday.
• Geopolitics: The market is still holding its breath regarding the Iran conflict, looking for any signs of a definitive diplomatic off-ramp from the administration.

📢 Reminder: Premium Mentoring Deadline

Don't forget that the price increase for the Premium Mentoring Plan takes effect tomorrow, April 1st.

• To lock in the current rate, upgrades must be finalized by Close of Business TODAY, Tuesday, March 31st.
• Note: Existing Premium members will remain on their current rate.

Strategy Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

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