Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.
Details:
IT Project Updates: App and Website Improvements: Stephen Cox announced updates regarding the three ongoing IT projects, with the first being the application which is set to be improved over the next few weeks and which they encourage users to download. The second project involved changes to the front-end website, which now features a member login option (00:05:33).
Course Management System Implementation: Following positive feedback, and a suggestion from Kieran, the course content is being migrated to a dedicated course management system. This new system, which includes quizzes and tracking for completed modules, will initially host stock market investing courses, with spread betting, tax-free, and options trading content being added over the next two weeks (00:06:23).
US 500 Integration and Premium Mentoring Fees: The third project is the ongoing integration of the US 500 performance data into the application, which will provide a continuous, automatic download and a much more seamless interface (00:07:18). Stephen Cox also clarified that the increase in premium mentoring fees applies only to new people joining, while existing clients will retain their current discounted rate as long as they remain members (00:08:19).
Market Volatility and Option Trading Strategy: Volatility in the market has increased, causing the VIX to rise by 13% and resulting in higher premiums for option trades (00:09:16). Stephen Cox noted that the previous day's address had not resolved geopolitical issues, and the resulting uncertainty has led to higher oil prices and pressure on the market, which is expected to open back into a downtrend (00:10:21).
Risk Management and Trading Timeline: Stephen Cox advised considering risk management, especially since the US markets will be closed on the following day, meaning any trade would need to hold through the weekend until Monday's market opening (00:11:18). They discussed the option of using today's volatility to write the 5,800 short puts for a 2.3% profit, with a contingency plan to roll the trade down to the 5,400 level in case of a significant market downturn (00:12:20).
Preference for Waiting and Market Certainty: The current preference is to wait until the following week to trade, as waiting offers certainty regarding the market direction despite the risk of missing a potential rally (00:14:15). Stephen Cox emphasized that even if the market rises, they will still be able to enter a trade for April at a different strike price to achieve the target return, and certainty is crucial before entering a long bank holiday weekend (00:15:13).
Geopolitical Concerns and Market Risk: Patrick and Philip Lambert raised concerns that Donald Trump is likely to take action over the weekend while markets are closed, especially concerning the Straits of Hormuz (00:17:08). Stephen Cox agreed with the cautious approach, stating that putting "boots on the ground" could lead to a long, protracted conflict, confirming their inclination to stay out of the market for the moment (00:18:02).
Metals Market Behavior: Clive Wisdom questioned why metals prices were decreasing while oil prices were increasing, which Stephen Cox attributed primarily to the strengthening US dollar, as gold is quoted in dollars (00:21:48). Other contributing factors include rumors of central banks selling off gold due to geopolitical risk, and the impact of the dollar's strength on gold's value (00:22:45).
Future Outlook and Strategy on Gold: Stephen Cox indicated that gold is on their personal watch list for diversification, suggesting that if gold revisits its lows, it could be a buying opportunity, with potential upside of 25% when the conflict ends. They are waiting for the conflict to end before allocating about 20% of their portfolio to gold, and advised non-Irish investors to use simple ETFs like GLD for investment (00:25:03).
Decision to Hold Off Trading and Focus on Certainty: Stephen Cox confirmed they will not be trading today and will wait until the following week due to the bank holiday, oil prices, and market uncertainty, stressing that they are comfortable missing a market jump in favor of certainty (00:26:06). They hope the market low will be retested, making them more comfortable writing the 5,500 puts for April (00:27:01).
Individual Equity Opportunities: While preferring broad-based index investing, Stephen Cox noted that certain individual equities like Oracle, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are looking decent around their current levels, and Alaska Airlines is also on their list (00:28:03). They clarified that they are not buying stock at the moment and believe shorting the market is currently too risky, advising others to stay in cash (00:29:10).
Monitoring the 10-Year Yield: They advised keeping an eye on the 10-year yield, as its increase is generally negative for the stock market by driving borrowing costs up and reducing stock valuations. A potential trade was identified in TLT, which moves inversely to interest rates; if the 10-year yield creeps back up to 4.5%, selling $85 puts on TLT could be a good strategy (00:30:05).
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