Hi there,

Yesterday, Thursday, January 22, 2026, Wall Street continued its recovery as geopolitical tensions eased further. Investors welcomed a "framework" agreement regarding Greenland and the suspension of proposed tariffs on European allies, allowing the major indices to log their second consecutive day of gains.

🏆 US 500 Challenge & Option Trade Updates

We are on a roll! Our latest trade locked in 2% tax-free in just 2 days. 🚀

To celebrate this momentum, I’ve created a 'Golden Ticket' for you to pass on to a friend or colleague. Here is how the win-win works:

• For your Friend: They get 1 week of Pro Mentoring for FREE . There is zero risk—if they don't like it, they can cancel at any stage and they won't be charged a penny.
• For You: As a thank you, you get €99 off your next renewal for every friend that joins.

It’s the perfect way to help someone else master the S&P 500 while you bank a significant credit on your own membership.

How to share: Simply send them the link below. The VIP discount is already built-in, so they can get started immediately for €0:

👉 https://buy.stripe.com/14k7sY6IE30W30Q00b

(Note: Remind your friend to enter your name in the 'Who referred you?' box at checkout so I can apply your €99 credit!)"

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist

As a reminder, these are high-quality companies we are preparing to add to our long-term portfolio. These are not yet buys; we are waiting for their specific technical downtrends to exhaust.

• Current Watchlist: DELL, ANET, AMD, CRM, ORCL, PYPL, CCL.

📅 Market Review for Thursday, January 22, 2026

Overview: The "tariff reprieve" rally extended through Thursday's session. After President Trump ruled out military force in Greenland and shelved the February 1st tariffs on NATO allies, the fear gauge (VIX) dropped significantly. This helped the S&P 500 and Dow claw back a large portion of Tuesday's losses.

📈 Major Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose +0.63% (+307 points), closing at 49,384.01.
• S&P 500: Gained +0.55%, closing at 6,913.35.
• Nasdaq Composite: Jumped +0.91%, finishing at 23,436.02.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Eased slightly to 4.25% as the immediate geopolitical flight-to-safety cooled.
• Gold: Continued its historic run, setting a new all-time high of $4,930 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Declined -2.1% to settle at $59.35 per barrel as trade war fears subsided.
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Fell -0.5% to 98.30.

📊 Specific Stock Performance

• META (Meta Platforms): Up +5.66% ($647.63). Led the mega-caps after ad-spend sentiment turned bullish.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Up +4.91% ($62.23). Broke out to new highs on strong volume.
• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): Up +1.57% ($253.73). Watchlist: Continues to show elite relative strength, significantly outperforming its peer group.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +1.97% ($113.26). Watchlist: A small bounce, but still facing pricing pressure from storage suppliers. We remain patient.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Up +0.81% ($26.10). Caught a steady bid as value-oriented healthcare saw interest.
• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Up +0.66% ($330.54). Recovered modestly alongside the broader tech sector.
• ORCL (Oracle): Up +0.65% ($191.09). Watchlist: A steady recovery day following Tuesday's sell-off.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Down -1.40% (13,350.00p). Continued to struggle in London, breaking below key support levels.
• STZ (Constellation Brands): Down -1.60% ($160.72). Gave back some of its defensive gains as investors rotated back into growth.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Meeting Recording

Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.

Summary

Stephen Cox shared the positive performance of recent trades, including on IG Index and Interactive Brokers, and advised that selling puts should be the "go-to strategy" for the year, especially on the S&P 500, to manage potential market corrections while aiming for new highs near 8,000 by year-end. Stephen Cox provided trade justifications and outlooks for TLT, oil, natural gas, silver, and gold, reviewed watch list stocks like Oracle and Dell, and discussed the AI trade thesis, with Brendan O'Reilly 262626 noting Salesforce's focus on improving sales execution for their AI tool. Stephen Cox also explained to Stephen Vajda the preference for XSP over SPY for short put strategies in smaller accounts due to lower margin requirements and cash settlement, concluding the meeting with a successful start to the year and plans for the next US 500 short put trade in February.

Details

• Trading Strategy Philosophy and Market Outlook Stephen Cox discussed the risk of listening to "doomsday economists," noting they are only right one time and should not solely influence trading decisions. Stephen Cox stated that a market pullback is likely this year, but their overall prediction for the S&P 500 is to reach new highs near 8,000 by year-end, disagreeing with "doomsday sellers" (00:01:21) (00:06:08). Stephen Cox introduced the strategy of selling put options as the focus for the first three to six months of the year due to expected market volatility (00:03:07).
• Current Trade Performance Review Stephen Cox shared the positive performance of recent trades, noting a trade on the IG Index platform was up 200 euros in two days, representing 2% tax-free profit on a 10k account, with a 95% probability of profit (00:03:07). The corresponding trade on Interactive Brokers using XSP (a mini S&P 500 index version for smaller accounts) was up $100 (1% in two days), and a longer-term TLT trade was up $30, aiming for a 1% monthly return. Stephen Cox indicated that the S&P 500 trade would expire next Friday, aiming for a total return of about 1.3% (00:04:04).
• S&P 500 Trading Strategy and Risk Management Stephen Cox advised that selling puts should be the "go-to strategy" for the year, especially considering the potential for a 5% to 20% market correction. Stephen Cox explained that the current S&P 500 trade was structured to profit even if the market fell 5% (00:05:06). The defined risk management plan involves "rolling out and down" if the S&P drops significantly, specifically to 6,600 before the next Friday expiry (00:06:08) (00:08:03).
• Earning Season and Netflix Analysis Stephen Cox highlighted the start of earning season, mentioning Netflix's disappointing guidance led to a significant drop in its share price. Stephen Cox noted that Netflix is nearly 40% down from its all-time high but advised against buying it currently, as it is still making "lower lows" (00:07:05).
• TLT Trade Justification (US Treasuries) Stephen Cox explained that the TLT trade, which tracks US treasuries interest rates, was initiated because of a significant two-day pop in the 10-year US yield, caused by nervousness over the Greenland issue. They viewed this spike as temporary, not warranting the rise in interest rates, and sold puts on TLT for a 1% return, willing to take assignment on TLT for a 4% bond yield if necessary (00:09:01).
• Outlook on Oil and Natural Gas Stephen Cox expressed nervousness about trading oil, citing strong US production levels and the potential for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia to increase oil supply (00:11:11). Stephen Cox suggested the only way to participate would be by selling short puts far out-of-the-money, in the low 50s (00:12:13). Regarding natural gas, Stephen Cox noted that they missed the boat on buying earlier, and following the recent polar vortex-driven jump, they now view it as too expensive and suggested a potential short trade using defined-risk strategies like a bear put spread on futures contracts (00:13:17).
• Natural Gas Trading Example Stephen Cox demonstrated how to place a bear put spread trade on natural gas futures contracts using Interactive Brokers for Stephen Gavin. They clarified that options on futures contracts have two expiration dates and noted that the multiplier for the natural gas contract is 10,000, making one contract highly significant (00:15:19) (00:18:10). Stephen Cox cautioned that this type of trade is speculative, dependent on weather forecasts, and has a lower probability of profit (00:17:14).
• Metals Market Analysis (Silver and Gold) Stephen Cox recommended traders sell silver, suggesting a potential drop of 12% back to the 82 Fibonacci retracement level, despite the existing uptrend, following the recent rally driven by market uncertainty (the Greenland issue) (00:21:11). Stephen Cox also suggested investors might want to take some silver profit off the table due to the risk of China changing its export policy (00:22:14). For gold, Stephen Cox advised both traders and investors to hold their positions, believing the bullish trend is intact and a stab at 5,000 is likely (00:23:17).
• Watch List Stock Analysis Stephen Cox reviewed stocks on the watch list, encouraging the use of the history tab in Equity Scan to track changes in analyst target prices (00:24:14). They noted that new watch list additions like Oracle, Caribbean Cruises, PayPal, and Salesforce were mostly tech stocks selling off (00:25:22). Stephen Cox emphasized waiting for the end of the current downtrends (lower lows/lower highs) before entering long-term positions for stocks like Dell, Caribbean Cruises, and Oracle (00:26:18) (00:30:03).
• AI Trade Thesis and Stock Specifics Stephen Cox believes the AI trade is only at the start and recommended using the current consolidation phase as an opportunity to buy into companies like Oracle and Dell, as they are expected to recover and make new highs. Stephen Cox mentioned that Google, where they have a long position, is performing well due to the efficiencies provided by their AI tool, Gemini (00:32:19). Brendan O'Reilly 262626 noted that Salesforce's CEO, Marc Benioff, is focused on improving sales execution for their AI tool (00:34:23).
• Strategy Comparison for Different Account Types Stephen Cox compared the short put strategy on the S&P 500 for a "low stress way to make money" with investing in individual stocks (00:37:55). They advised that for self-administered pension funds, buying SPY during a selloff is low-risk (00:39:13). Stephen Cox recommended that investments in individual equities should be limited to less than 5% of a portfolio's value for diversification (00:40:20).
• XSP vs. SPY for Short Puts Stephen Cox explained to Stephen Vajda that XSP is preferred for smaller accounts because it has lower margin requirements compared to SPY, demonstrating an $8,000 margin impact for XSP versus $12,000 for SPY on the same trade (00:41:20). XSP is a cash-settled instrument, meaning investors take the profit or loss at expiry, while SPY allows for the physical assignment of shares upon expiry (00:42:17).
• Conclusion and February Trade Planning Stephen Cox concluded the meeting by highlighting the successful start to the year, being well on target for the 30% challenge on the IG Index account. Stephen Cox indicated they are preparing the next short put trade on the US 500 for the end of February, which could bring in about 4% for the month (00:44:28). They mentioned that trade updates and risk management actions are posted daily on their knowledge base and available via chat or WhatsApp (00:45:24).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

STATUS: CLOSED: TLT Short $86 Put

TRADE FINALIZED: SPY Traditional Short Put

Account: Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

I. Trade Details

• Underlying: TLT
• Strike Price: $86
• Expiration Date: Feb 20th
• Closing Date: Feb 20th

II. Financial Result

• Action: Buy to Close (BTC)
• Entry Premium Received: $85
• Exit Premium Paid: $0 (Expired Worthless)
• Net Profit/Loss $85

III. Performance Metrics

• Exit Reason: Option Expired worthless
• Holding Period: 28 days
• Actual Return on Margin (RoI): 0.85%

IV. Strategy Review

• Market Conditions: As expected interest rates stayed rangebound and did not rise.
• Rule Check: Was the trade closed according to the plan? Yes📝

Live Trade Log

Daily updates and management actions.

• Feb 20th: Winner, Winner. 0.85% ROI. The $86 Put option will expire worthless and in full profit this evening. There is nothing to do here. The option will simply disappear from our account tomorrow and the full profit will be realised in our cash account.
• Feb 19th: Up 0.85%. No action required. This trade will expire tomorrow in full profit.
• Feb 18th: Up 0.84%. No action required. This trade expires on Friday 20th. We will make full profit!
• Feb 17th: up 0.85%. No action required.
• Feb 14th: Up 0.84%. No action required.
• Feb 13th: Up 0.82%. No action required.
• Feb 12th: Up 0.80%. No action required.
• Feb 11th: Up 0.79%. No action required
• Feb 10th: No Action required
• Feb 9th: No action required.
• Feb 7th: No action required.
• Feb 6th: No action required. Trade going as planned.
• Feb 5th: No action required.
• Feb 4th: No action required.
• Feb 3rd: Price action remains stable; letting time decay (theta) work. No action required.
• Jan 30: 🔵 Holding: Currently up 0.33%. Price action remains stable; letting time decay (theta) work. No action required.
• Jan 29: Up 0.42%. Holding for expiry.
• Jan 26: Up 0.59%. Trade performing as expected.
• Jan 22: Strong initial rally! Up 0.3% in the first 24 hours. Maintaining for the full 30-day yield.
• Jan 21 (Entry): Sold $86 Put @ $0.85. Initial Margin: ~$1,600.

⚙️ Strategy & Original Setup

This strategy is return-based with unlimited risk, relying on margin - Traditional Options on IBKR. See video below of trade explanation. Watch from about 1 minute 50 seconds into this video.

I. Setup & Rationale

• Trade Date: Jan 21st 2026
• Underlying Ticker: TLT - US 20 year treasury yield tracker
• TLT Price at time of trade: $86.75
• Market Outlook: Strong Bullish/Neutral - A significant drop is not expected.
• Goal of Trade: Maximum Premium Income / Return on Margin (RoM)
• Probability of Profit (PoP): 71% (this is the main attraction of the strategy)

II. The Trade Details

• Action: Sell to Open (STO) 1 Naked Put Option
• Strike Price: $86
• Expiration Date (DTE): Feb 20th 2026
• Premium Collected: $0.85 per share
• Total Premium Collected per contract: $85

III. Risk & Profit Metrics

• Maximum Profit: (The credit collected) $857
• Breakeven Price: $85.15 (We need the stock price to remain above to price at EXPIRATION to make a profit)
• Initial Margin Required: $1,600 (But this depends on numerous factors such as your account size and other positions in your account).
• Potential Loss: unlimited...losses continue to increase as the share price falls further below break even.

IV. Trade Management & Exit Plan

• Take Profit: Leave expire worthless.
• Trade Mgt (Critical): None. Happy to take assignment of TLT if this occurs as it pays an annual dividend of just under 4%. Our plan will be to sell the ETF if the share price reaches $90 again after assignment.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Please note: This is an educational exercise using a demo account. Share Navigator does not provide financial advice.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

📈 US 500 Option Trade Update

We have successfully opened our first US 500 option trades of the year, and the initial results are very promising.

• IG Index (Spread Betting): The position is already in profit. We are currently on target to achieve a 2.5% tax-free return over a 9-day duration.
• IBKR (Traditional Options): This version of the trade is also sitting in a slight profit, currently on track for a 1.3% ROI over a 9-day duration..

📋 Long-Term Buy Watchlist Update

We are officially adding CRM, ORCL, PYPL, and CCL to our Long-Term Buy Watchlist. They join our existing watchlist members: DELL, ANET, and AMD.

Reminder: This watchlist is not a BUY list. These are high-quality companies we are getting ready to add to our long-term buy-and-hold portfolio, but we are not ready to act just yet. We are staying patient and waiting for the recent technical downtrend in these names to definitively end before committing capital.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Overview: The market mood soured over the long weekend following President Trump’s social media posts threatening a 10% tariff on eight NATO allies (effective February 1st) in connection with the ongoing Greenland standoff. This escalation ignited fears of a global trade war, overshadowing recent AI-driven optimism. While we have opened our broad index trades, we remain patient and have yet to place our first individual stock option trade of the year as we wait for the technical setups in these volatile conditions to stabilize.

📈 Major Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Plunged -1.74% (860 points), closing at 48,498.96.
• S&P 500: Sank -2.04%, finishing at 6,798.48.
• Nasdaq Composite: Tumbled -2.38%, closing at 22,955.94.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Jumped to 4.27% as investors weighed the inflationary impact of new tariffs.
• Gold: Surged to a new all-time high of $4,737 per ounce on safe-haven demand.
• Silver: Exploded higher by over 6%, hitting a record $95.34 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Advanced to settle near $60.55 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• STZ (Constellation Brands): Up +4.45% ($163.61). A massive standout performer, acting as a powerful defensive hedge in a sea of red.
• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): Up +0.04% ($231.92). Watchlist: Showed incredible relative strength, managing to finish flat-to-green despite the Nasdaq's 2.3% drop.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Down -0.51% ($25.52). Held up significantly better than the broader market due to its defensive value profile.
• ANET (Arista Networks): Down -0.60% ($129.81). Watchlist: Stayed relatively resilient compared to its high-beta tech peers.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Down -2.66% ($60.67). Saw some profit-taking after the previous week's historic 9% surge.
• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Down -2.42% ($322.00). Followed the broader mega-cap tech sector lower amid the trade-war fears.
• META (Meta Platforms): Down -2.60% ($604.12). Faced heavy selling pressure as investors exited high-growth software names.
• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Down -4.86% ($47.61). Hit hard as the airline sector grappled with the twin threats of rising oil and potential trade restrictions.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Down -7.85% ($111.07). Note: Dell was among the worst performers in tech yesterday. We continue to monitor it closely and are preparing to buy, but with the technical downtrend accelerating, we are staying patient for a clear bottoming signal.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Down -0.70% (13,515.00p). Hit a new 52-week low in London as it continues to struggle with regulatory and technical headwinds.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Status: CLOSED, XSP (S&P 500) Short Put

Strategy: Premium Income (Naked Put) | Target Return: 1.3%

📝 Live Trade Log & Updates

Jan 30 (Exit): ✅ Trade Closed. Expired worthless as predicted. 1.3% gain realized. No action needed.

Jan 29: Up 1.29%. Holding for final decay.

Jan 26: Up 1.19%. Position is safe; no adjustments required.

Jan 21 (Entry): Sold $650 Put @ $1.30. Initial Margin: ~$6,000.

⚙️ Opening Trade information: Strategy & Risk Management

This strategy is return-based with unlimited risk, relying on margin - Traditional Options on IBKR.

I. Setup & Rationale

• Underlying Ticker: SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - also XSP for smaller account sizes
• Current SPY Price: $684
• Market Outlook: Strong Bullish/Neutral - A significant drop is not expected.
• Goal of Trade: Maximum Premium Income / Return on Margin (RoM)
• Probability of Profit (PoP): 97% (this is the main attraction of the strategy)

II. The Trade Details

• Action: Sell to Open (STO) 1 Naked Put Option
• Strike Price: $650
• Expiration Date (DTE): Jan 30th 2026
• Premium Collected: $1.2977 per share
• Total Premium Collected per contract: $129.77

III. Risk & Profit Metrics

• Maximum Profit: (The credit collected) $129.77
• Breakeven Price: $648.70 (We need the stock price to remain above to price at EXPIRATION to make a profit)
• Initial Margin Required: $6,000 (But this depends on numerous factors such as your account size and other positions in your account).
• Potential Loss: unlimited...losses continue to increase as the share price falls further below break even.

IV. Trade Management & Exit Plan

• Take Profit: Leave expire worthless.
• Trade Mgt (Critical): If SPY share price gets within 1% of strike price we will immediately roll out to the next monthly expiry and down to a strike price that gives us at least a $0.01 cent credit. As it stands now we could roll down to end of February to bel0w the $610 strike.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Please note: This is an educational exercise using a demo account. Share Navigator does not provide financial advice.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

STATUS: CLOSED US 500 Index Short Put

Strategy: Premium Income (Spread Bet) | Target ROI: 2.45% (Tax-Free*)

📊 Trade Dashboard

📝 Live Trade Log

Daily updates and management actions.

• Jan 30 (Exit): ✅ Trade Closed. The index expired well above 6500. Option expired worthless, securing the full 2.46% ROI. Position will clear automatically.
• Jan 29: Up 2.37%. One day to expiry; holding for full profit.
• Jan 26: Up 2.25%. No action required.
• Jan 23: Up 2.14%. Maintaining position.
• Jan 22: Strong rally. Position at 1.86% ROI in 48 hours.
• Jan 21: Profitable within 24 hours. On track for target yield.
• Jan 20 (Entry): Sold 6500 Put @ $14.68 (Size: 20). Total Premium: $293.60.

⚙️ US 500 Strategy & Original Setup

This strategy is for selling a cash-settled short put option on the US 500 Index via the IG options chain. Maximum loss can be significant if not managed correctly. Strictly adhere to risk mgt guidelines.

I. Setup & Rationale

• Account Size: €10K
• Trade Date: Jan 20th 2026
• Underlying Instrument: US 500 Index Option (S&P 500 Index)
• Current Index Price: 6830
• Market Outlook: Strong Bullish/Neutral - Expected to remain above the strike.
• Goal of Trade: Premium Income Generation
• Probability of Profit: 95% (This is the main attraction in the trade)

II. The Trade Details

• Action: Sell to Open Short Put Option
• Strike Price: 6,500
• Expiration Date: Jan 30th ( 9 Trading Days)
• Premium Collected: $14.68
• Trade Size: 20
• Total Premium Collected: $293.60 ($14.68*20)

III. Risk & Profit Metrics

• Maximum Profit: $293.60
• Breakeven Price: $6,500 - $14.68 = $6,485.32 (We need the share price to remain above this price at EXPIRATION to make a profit)
• Margin Required: We recommend keeping it to below 60% of account size.
• Maximum Loss: Unlimited - losses can increase the further the share price drops below the breakeven price.

IV. Trade Management & Exit Plan

• Take Profit: Let Trade run to expiry unless we implement our risk management plan between now and expiry.
• Risk Mgt: If Price drops to 6,600 we will roill down to roughly 6200 for the February expiry and generate a net credit.

• If the price gets to within 6600 of strike price, we will rollout to next monthly expiry and down to a strike price that gives you a $0.01 minimum credit.
• If price suddenly drops and no rollout can be activated: we may close down the trade and take the loss. We will decide if and when that situation occurs.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Please note: This is an educational exercise using a demo account. Share Navigator does not provide financial advice.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Our patience in sitting on the sidelines for the first two weeks of the year has truly paid off. As US markets reopen today, Tuesday, January 20, 2026, the S&P 500 futures are down a sharp 1.6%, proving that skipping the early-January "froth" was the right defensive play.

We will be placing our first S&P 500 option trade this week.. stay tuned to our alerts on whats app.

WEEKLY MARKET PREVIEW: JANUARY 19–23, 2026

Market Sentiment: Risk-Off / Defensive

Key Theme: "The Greenland Pivot"—Geopolitical tariff wars and extreme weather anomalies.

1. EQUITIES: US & GLOBAL

• S&P 500 Futures: Down 1.6% today as Wall Street digests a holiday weekend full of trade rhetoric.
• The "Greenland" Factor: Pres. Trump has proposed 10% to 25% tariffs on eight European nations (including the UK, France, and Germany) over their opposition to the US acquisition of Greenland.
• European Markets: The DAX and CAC 40 are reeling, down nearly 2% as trade war fears overshadow early-year optimism.
• Earnings Focus: High-stakes week with Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Intel, and Visa reporting.

2. CRYPTOCURRENCY: DIGITAL GOLD VS. RISK ASSETS

• Bitcoin ($BTC): Sliding roughly 3.5% to trade near $91,500–$92,000. While often called "Digital Gold," $BTC is currently trading as a "risk-on" asset, falling alongside tech stocks.
• Ethereum ($ETH): Underperforming $BTC, down 4.9% to test the $3,100 level.
• Outlook: Nearly $870 million in long liquidations occurred over the last 24 hours. The market is looking for support at the $89,000 psychological level.

3. COMMODITIES: ENERGY

• Natural Gas ($NG): UP 20% to $3.71/MMBtu.
• The Catalyst: A massive "Polar Vortex" is confirmed for Jan 26. Prices are surging as shorts cover positions ahead of temperatures forecasted to be 25°F below normal in major US hubs.

• Crude Oil (WTI): Drifting lower toward $58.50. Fears of a global trade slowdown are outweighing any geopolitical supply risk for now.

4. METALS: THE TRUE HAVENS

• Gold ($XAU): The star performer, hitting record highs of $4,660/oz. This is the primary destination for capital fleeing equities.
• Silver ($XAG): Extremely volatile, hitting $94/oz before a slight pullback. Silver is benefiting from a "physical squeeze" on exchange inventories.

5. FOREIGN EXCHANGE (FX)

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Slumping toward 98.50. In a rare twist, the Dollar is losing its "safe-haven" status this morning as traders worry about the inflationary impact of new US tariffs.
• EUR/USD: Bouncing to 1.1650 despite tariff threats, as the "Sell America" sentiment takes hold.
• USD/JPY: Sitting at 159.50. All eyes on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision this Friday.

CRITICAL ECONOMIC CALENDAR

SUMMARY STRATEGY

The "Wait and See" approach of the last 14 days has protected our capital from a 1.6% gap down in the S&P. Current focus remains on Hard Assets (Gold/Silver) and Energy (Nat Gas) while avoiding over-leveraged long positions in Crypto or Tech until the Davos rhetoric settles.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

📚 New Spreadbetting Option Courses

We are constantly updating our spread betting courses and adding traditional option strategies to help our UK and Irish-based clients navigate all market conditions within a tax-free environment. The latest addition is the Bull Put Spread course, designed for income generation in neutral-to-bullish markets.

• Spread Betting Clients: You can access our full suite of tax-free strategy courses here: 👉 Access Share Navigator Spread Betting Courses
• Traditional Option Traders: For all other clients trading traditional options via platforms like IBKR, please note that these courses are already fully completed and available in your knowledge base. 👉 Access Share Navigator Tradtional Option Trading Courses

Overview:

U.S. indices edged lower on Friday as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a four-month high of 4.23%. This move followed hints from the administration regarding future Federal Reserve leadership, which sparked volatility in interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Despite the slight dip, the semiconductor sector remained a pocket of strength.

Note: U.S. markets will be CLOSED this Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

📈 Major Indices

• S&P 500: Slipped -0.01%, closing at 6,966.28.
• Nasdaq Composite: Declined -0.08%, finishing at 23,671.35.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fell -0.18% (86 points), closing at 49,504.07.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Rose to 4.23%, its highest level since September.
• Gold: Declined -0.6% to settle at $4,595 per ounce.
• Silver: Dropped over -3.0% after a strong weekly run-up.
• WTI Crude Oil: Advanced +0.4% to settle at $59.40 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): Up +1.68% ($231.76). Watchlist: Continued to outpace the broader market, benefiting from the ongoing AI-hardware boom.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Up +9.14% ($62.34). A massive breakout session as the stock surged on high volume, clearing previous resistance levels with ease.
• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Up +0.77% ($50.04). Managed a modest gain, showing resilience despite the rise in yields and oil.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +0.73% ($120.53). Note: We continue to monitor Dell closely for a break in its technical downtrend. While it finished in the green, it has yet to clear its 50-day moving average ($122.82).
• META (Meta Platforms): Down -0.09% ($620.25). Finished effectively flat as it consolidated near current levels.
• ANET (Arista Networks): Down -0.60% ($129.81). Watchlist: Experienced a minor pullback after its strong outperformance earlier in the week.
• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Down -0.83% ($330.39). Eased back from record highs alongside broader mega-cap software weakness.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Down -0.87% ($25.67). Followed the defensive health sector lower during the session.
• STZ (Constellation Brands): Down -1.33% ($156.64). Faced selling pressure as investors rotated out of staples.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Down -4.40% (14,985.00p). Faced a sharp decline in the London session, breaking below the 15,000p support level.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

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Hi there,

📚 New Bear Put Spread Course

We have created a new Bear Put Spread course for IG Index (Profits are tax-free for Ireland & UK residents) in our knowledge base. This strategy is essential for navigating downward market shifts.

Over the coming weeks, we will be expanding this series to cover all major option strategies for IG Index, including:

• Bull Put Spreads (Income generation in neutral-to-bullish markets)
• Bear Call Spreads (Profit from sideways-to-bearish moves)
• Ratio Spreads (Advanced volatility and direction plays)

You can access the initial course here: 👉 Tax-Free Bear Put Spread Guide (UK & Ireland)

📅 Market Review for Thursday, January 15, 2026

Overview: US indices snapped a two-day losing streak as semiconductor strength and cooling geopolitical tensions boosted sentiment. The Dow surged nearly 300 points, while oil prices tumbled over 4% after President Trump signaled a de-escalation with Iran. Note: We continue to remain patient regarding our first option trade of the year, waiting for volatility to settle before committing capital.

📈 Major Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose +0.60%, closing at 49,442.44.
• S&P 500: Gained +0.30%, closing at 6,944.47.
• Nasdaq Composite: Gained +0.30%, closing at 23,530.02.

🏛️ Bonds, FX & Commodities

• US 10-Year Yield: Rose to 4.17% following strong jobless claims data.
• Gold: Slipped to $4,610 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Dropped -4.3% to settle at $58.90 per barrel.

📊 Specific Stock Performance (Verified Closing Prices)

• AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): Up +1.93% ($227.91). Watchlist: Led the chip recovery following TSMC's bullish guidance.
• ANET (Arista Networks): Up +4.40% ($130.59). Watchlist: Outperformed significantly as AI networking demand remains a core theme.
• ALK (Alaska Air Group): Up +3.91% ($49.66). Bounced back strongly as the market cheered its massive fleet expansion plans.
• STZ (Constellation Brands): Up +1.57% ($158.82). Showed solid gains, recovering well from earlier volatility.
• PFE (Pfizer Inc.): Up +1.17% ($25.88). Caught a steady bid as the broader market rally lifted healthcare.
• DELL (Dell Technologies): Up +0.82% ($119.66). Finished the day in the green, but remains in a larger technical downtrend. Note: We are preparing to buy but continue to wait for a definitive breakout signal.
• META (Meta Platforms): Up +0.85% ($620.80). Participated in the tech lift, though trailing some of the high-flying hardware names.
• GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.): Down -0.91% ($332.78). Faced minor profit-taking after hitting record highs earlier in the week.
• NVO (Novo Nordisk ADR): Down -3.03% ($57.12). Eased back from recent highs as the healthcare sector saw some capital rotation.
• FLTR.L (Flutter Entertainment): Up +0.27% (15,080p).

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

www.sharenavigator.ie

Hi there,

Summary

Stephen Cox discussed the market outlook and investment psychology for metals, advising traders to exit silver at its peak and consider re-entry after a 5% to 10% pullback, while recommending investors hold gold due to its uptrend. Stephen Cox provided an update on the S&P 500 short put strategy, explaining that low implied volatility (VIX around 16) has kept premiums low, and clarified margin considerations for rolling out and down on the IG Index platform in response to a question from Roy. Additionally, Stephen Cox suggested taking profits in oil-related holdings due to potential price drops, highlighted Dell, Arista Networks, and AMD as stocks benefiting from the AI trend, and advised Stephen on trading versus investing approaches for their AMD position.

Details

• Market Outlook and Investment Psychology for Metals Stephen Cox started the meeting by noting that silver had reached a peak and emphasized the different psychologies required for traders versus investors. For traders, the approach with silver, agreed upon with Jerry Prior, was to exit at the high and look to re-enter if the price pulled back 5% or preferably 10%. The discussion also covered key drivers for silver prices, including a levy by China on exports, its use in renewable energy and data centers, and its correlation with gold as a byproduct of market uncertainty, leading to a "goldilock scenario" at the time.
• Silver Price Volatility and Trading Strategy Stephen Cox noted the risk in commodity investing, specifically mentioning the potential for silver prices to drop heavily if China were to lift its embargo, bringing more supply to the market. As predicted, silver experienced a rapid selloff, dropping 8% at one stage, nearing the 10% retracement target for re-entry from a trader's perspective, as consolidation is expected after a new high. For traders, Stephen Cox suggested waiting for a 10% or more pullback, possibly a retest of the low, before going long and exiting before retesting the subsequent high to mitigate the risk of a new top forming.
• Gold Investment and Trading Approach Regarding gold, Stephen Cox observed that it had recently made a new high, which is a positive sign, and suggested that gold is less inclined to be traded compared to silver due to silver's greater movement. For investors, they recommended applying an investor's psychology, leaving gold on and not trying to time the market, as it is in a clear uptrend.
• S&P 500 Short Put Strategy and Volatility Stephen Cox updated the team on the S&P 500 short put strategy, noting that no options trades had been placed this year due to low options premiums caused by low implied volatility, as measured by the VIX being around 16, which is significantly below the average of 20 and above. They explained that option premiums are based on volatility, and low VIX means less pay for selling option premium, though a selloff in the S\&P 500 would increase implied volatility and option premiums.
• Short Put Strategy Mechanics and Index Preference The short put strategy involves selling a put option with the goal of profiting from time decay, exemplified by selling a 660 put on SPY, resulting in a high probability of profit as long as the price stays above the break-even point. Stephen Cox strongly advised using this strategy only with indexes like the S&P 500 for a return-based strategy, cautioning against individual equities unless the intent is to own the stock, especially around earnings season when implied volatility increases for individual stocks. The preferred trade at the time was the 650 short put for the end of February, but Stephen Cox was waiting for a market selloff to secure better premiums.
• Trade Management and Rolling Out and Down Stephen Cox detailed the management of a short put trade, explaining that a trigger point, such as SPY falling to 656 from 693, would necessitate action. The action would be to "roll out and down," which means buying back the original contract and opening a new one further out in time (e.g., to the end of March) at a lower strike price (e.g., 625) to cover the cost, effectively lowering the break-even point and increasing the wiggle room, which contributes to the strategy's high success rate.
• IG Index Platform and Margin Considerations Stephen Cox outlined the short put strategy for those using IG Index in the UK and Ireland, noting that the platform wraps options trades as a tax-free bet. Roy Tyrrell inquired about the margin when rolling out and down on the IG Index, and Stephen Cox clarified that the margin from the old contract disappears when bought back, and the new contract's margin would be roughly the same, advising to keep the margin below 60% to allow for wiggle room if positions move adversely. They also pointed out that placing a trade on the IG Index results in an immediate loss due to the difference between the sell and buy price.
• Oil and Oil Stocks Update Stephen Cox provided an update on oil, observing that it had sold off following a prior jump due to events in Iran, and they anticipated it could drop back down to 55, suggesting that holders of USO or related stocks should consider taking profits. They considered oil to be too dangerous for involvement at the time, noting that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia could lead to Russian oil returning to the market, causing a drop in prices despite potential OPEC production cuts.
• Focus Stocks and AI Trend Stephen Cox highlighted three stocks—Dell, Arista Networks, and AMD—all benefiting from the AI trend. In discussing AMD, they noted its strong backlog of orders but cautioned about margin pressures and high valuation multiples. For AMD, Stephen Cox was waiting for two scenarios before acting: either a breakout above the recent high or a breakdown to retest a triple bottom, indicating that a dollar cost averaging strategy is suitable for long-term investors in the stock.
• Arista Networks and Long-Term View on AI Arista Networks was shown to be in a consolidation phase, similar to AMD, with Stephen Cox monitoring it for a bit longer, noting a potential double top formation. Stephen Cox maintained the opinion that the AI trade is not overdone, encouraging those who believe it is not to invest in the three highlighted stocks.
• Guidance for AMD Traders vs. Investors Stephen Vajda asked for advice on their AMD position, which was up 20%. Stephen Cox advised that an investor should hold the stock, but a trader should consider exiting now, taking profit near the high of the consolidation range, with the possibility of re-entering during a retest of the high as support. Stephen Cox also advised against selling a long-term equity option ("leap") while holding onto a sold call option against it, as this carries a risk of substantial losses if the stock jumps significantly, recommending instead to close both positions together.
• Technology Development Updates Stephen Cox concluded by announcing that an app is currently in development and is expected to be ready in four to six weeks, offering features such as booking mentoring sessions and tracking courses and the equity scan. Additionally, a new technology tool, similar to Equity Scan but focused on the US 500 short put challenge, is being built and is anticipated to be ready in about two months, allowing users to track open trades, performance, and actions in real-time with automatic updates and WhatsApp alerts.

📞 Strategy Call Assistance

If you require assistance with trade setup, risk management, or strategy review, please schedule a strategy call.

• PREMIUM Plan Members: Strategy calls are included in your plan.
• All Other Members: Strategy calls can be scheduled at a rate of €100 per half hour.

Happy Investing

Share Navigator Support

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