Market update

Freight Market Update: August 11, 2025

Shared by Elizabeth • August 11, 2025

AIR FREIGHT

JAL plans instant air cargo orders to offset Trump tariff uncertainty

Japan Airlines (JAL) is implementing instant air cargo orders to mitigate uncertainties from Trump-era tariffs affecting U.S.-Japan trade. This strategy aims to enhance supply chain efficiency and provide faster delivery options, helping businesses adapt to fluctuating market conditions and maintain competitiveness despite changing trade policies.

Following the U.S. reciprocal tariff deadline extension, demand for inbound cargo has remained stable, with no significant upward pressure on rates. As the August 12 expiration of U.S. tariffs on China nears, air cargo trends show Southeast Asia to the U.S. rates steady at $4.84/kg, while China-U.S. prices have dipped 7% to $5.17/kg. Rates from South Asia are down 4% to $4.55/kg, and transatlantic rates decreased 2% to $1.77/kg.

This stability indicates that shippers are not rushing to move goods ahead of the deadline, likely due to expectations of trade deals or further extensions, along with prior frontloading during recent pauses.

Image source: Nikkei

Source: Freightos, Nikkei

Airfreight Rates – Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index

Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) powered by TAC Data

Rates are based on spot and contract prices provided by freight forwarders

Asia-NAWC: Back to square one

The trade war induced spike is now all but gone on the Transpacific to the West Coast.

Planned weekly capacity for June, July and August, Asia-NAWC

Planned weekly capacity for June, July and August, Asia-NAEC

In June, carriers added capacity for the Asia-NAWC trade to meet early demand, but the weekly average remained slightly above early May levels, and the expected surge did not materialize. For July, plans for a significant capacity increase have been adjusted downward, and August forecasts indicate a clear reduction in capacity expectations.

In contrast, the Asia-NAEC trade did not reach anticipated levels but is seeing a sustained capacity increase in July, contributing to the narrowing spread in spot rates between Asia-USEC and Asia-USWC. Similar declines in planned increases for August are observed for both trades.

Source: Sea Intelligence 724

Drewry: Ocean rates fall for fifth straight week

Drewry’s World Container Index reported a 2.6% decline in ocean freight rates as of July 19, marking five consecutive weeks of decreases. This trend indicates a shift in market dynamics following the volatility caused by U.S. tariffs in April and a subsequent China-U.S. tariff pause. Rates rose in May and early June but have dropped steadily since mid-June.

Trans-Pacific spot rates are also affected, with prices from Shanghai to Los Angeles down 4% to $2,817 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) and rates to New York down 6% to $4,539 per FEU. However, both routes remain higher than 10 weeks ago, with Los Angeles rates up 4% and New York rates up 24% since May 8.

The decline in spot rates is attributed to weakening demand, which is expected to continue. Drewry’s outlook anticipates further weakening of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, impacting future rates based on trade policies and potential tariffs

Drewry’s spot container rates for major trade routes

Ocean Freight Rate Movement (Market Average) in the Past 3 Months

Source: Xeneta