Market update

Freight Market Update: September 9, 2025

Shared by Elizabeth • September 09, 2025

AIR FREIGHT

Tariffs throw US airfreight into turbulence

In 2025, the U.S. airfreight industry is experiencing significant disruption due to fluctuating tariffs imposed on trade with China. These tariffs have led to increased costs and forced companies to reevaluate their supply chains, inventory management, and shipping strategies. The elimination of the $800 de minimis exemption for Chinese goods is particularly impacting low-value e-commerce shipments, which represented approximately 1.2 million tons or over 50% of goods shipped from China to the U.S. by air.

Since 2018, the share of these shipments has grown from 5% to its current level due to changes in tariff policy. Airlines are reallocating capacity in response to these changes, with approximately 70 freighters temporarily ceasing operations on Transpacific routes and some services redirected to other regions. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has created a challenging environment, leading to potential long-term implications for demand in the airfreight sector.

With e-commerce demand has in part displaced general cargo (or contains general cargo shipped under de minimis rules), therefore in reality around 25% of China-US demand may be at risk with changes to de minimis rules.

According to the whitepaper released by TIACA, e-commerce air cargo volumes could double within the next decade.

Airfreight Rates – Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index

Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) powered by TAC Data

Rates are based on spot and contract prices provided by freight forwarders

COSCO Group leads Far East-India/Middle East/Red Sea trade

A review of the Far East – India Subcontinent/Middle East/Red Sea trade lane shows that COSCO Group is the most dominant player in that market.

Unsurprisingly, Asian carriers account for the vast majority of lines on this route, and the Europeans involved are generally mainline operators. The only exception here is Denmark’s Unifeeder, which is however controlled by the Dubai-based DP World, so that the route corridor is one of Unifeeder’s home turfs.

COSCO Group is in lead position with about 250,000 teu of capacity deployed, which represents 12.7% of all operated slots in the trade. The Chinese group is also the only player that operates ‘Megamaxes’ on this corridor. Its ‘MEA5’ service, part of the OCEAN Alliance network, is run with five such vessels, averaging some 19,000 teu, as of the start of July. Maersk, despite being the global number two, only operates some 4% of all slots in this trade lane, landing it in ninth place.

Far East - India / Middle East / Red Sea: capacity deployment of the top-15 carrier

Ocean Freight Rate Movement (Market Average) in the Past 3 Months

Source: Xeneta