Freight Market Update: October 9, 2025

AIR FREIGHT

Tariffs throw US airfreight into turbulence

• Air cargo volumes from India to the US have continued to decline in September due to new tariffs, with a reported 8% drop week-on-week in the second week of Sep. This decline follows earlier decreases of 12% and 11% in the preceding weeks, contrasting with a spike of 28% in late Aug as shippers rushed to send goods before the tariffs took effect.

• In contrast, exports from India to Europe saw a slight decline of 1% in week 37, but overall volumes remain above last year's levels. Other regions, such as Dubai, also experienced a decrease in cargo volumes to the US, with tonnages more than a third lower than the July–August average.

• FedEx has shifted freighter capacity away from the transpacific trade lane in favour of Asia-Europe as tariffs on e-commerce shipments have taken their toll on demand levels to the US. The express firm had reduced its own-controlled transpacific capacity by 25% compared with last year and by 10% compared with the previous quarter.

Source: Air Cargo News, CAAS

Airfreight Rates – Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index

Source: Air Cargo News​

Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) powered by TAC Data​

Rates are based on spot and contract prices provided by freight forwarders

OCEAN FREIGHT​

Are shipping lines removing Chinese vessels?

• The global shipping industry faces transformation as new U.S. regulations target Chinese vessels, effective October 2025. Sea Intelligence analyzes whether carriers are removing Chinese-built vessels from their operations, focusing on Transpacific and Transatlantic trades.

Transpacific Trade

• Early signs of reduction in Chinese-built vessel deployment

• Share decreased from 25-30% to 20-25% in recent weeks

• More pronounced impact visible on Asia-North America West Coast trade

• Similar trend (though less pronounced) on Asia-North America East Coast trade sea-intelligence.com

Transatlantic Trade

• No material statistical impact observed yet

• Individual vessel redeployments occurring but not creating widespread changes

• Data doesn't support notion of systematic removal of Chinese-built vessels

Transpacific routes demonstrate clear, quantifiable shifts in Chinese-built vessel usage, while Transatlantic operations show only isolated redeployments without broader pattern changes.

Share of Vessels Built in China

Transpaciifc (3WK Rolling Avg.)

Source: Sea Intelligence

Ocean Freight Rate Movement (Market Average) in the Past 3 Months

Source: Xeneta