Freight Market Update: October 11, 2025

AIR FREIGHT

Air cargo finds its next lift in Southeast Asia

• The Southeast Asia airfreight market is expanding as global manufacturers shift production from China, driven by high demand for AI servers, semiconductors, and consumer electronics, focused on Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. Asia Pacific to US air trade in January to July 2025 was up 11% YoY, led by high-tech electronics from Taiwan and Vietnam.

• The demand for air cargo from Southeast Asia to North America grew 50% YoY in 2025 (Jan to July), and in July 2025 alone, the growth was at 68%, according to the data from air cargo consultancy firm, while actual spot rates have fallen or stalled due to increased regional capacity and diversified routing through Northeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

• Meanwhile, the Trans-Pacific airfreight demand is rising in October as shippers front-load shipments ahead of anticipated 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, though prices have largely steadied due to ample capacity. Freight volumes into the US are up, with carriers quickly mobilizing capacity and yoy China–US capacity increasing about 21% (24% week-over-week after the tariff news).

Source: stattimes, JOC

Airfreight Rates – Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index

Source: Air Cargo News

Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) powered by TAC Data

Rates are based on spot and contract prices provided by freight forwarders

OCEAN FREIGHT​

Inflation-adjusted spot rates below 2019

• The spot rates measured on Asia-Europe and Asia-USEC are clearly below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, when taking inflation into account. Asia-USWC is only 11% above 2019.

• Per the analysis from Sea-Intelligence, and look into the spot container shipping rates in a way people don’t usually do—by considering inflation. Most rate indexes show prices in today’s dollars, so if rates seem the same as ten years ago, they’re actually worth less money now due to inflation.

• After factor in inflation, spot freight rates now (October 2025) are not only back to pre-pandemic levels—they’re actually lower than late 2019 across all routes.

• Specifically, rates are down 3% for Asia–USEC, 17% for Asia–North Europe, and 13% for Asia–Mediterranean, compared to 2019. That means rates really aren’t “high” anymore. And with lots of new ships on the way and the Suez Canal reopening sometime soon, Sea-Intelligence forecasts there’s even more downward pressure coming for carriers.

Source: SeaIntelligence738

Ocean Freight Rate Movement (Market Average) in the Past 3 Months

Source: Xeneta