Market update

Freight Market Update: December 9, 2025

Shared by Elizabeth • December 09, 2025

AIR FREIGHT

De Minimis Policy Shifts

Global air freight markets have firmed slightly in November, with Asia-Pacific spot rates rising about 2% to $3.99/kg and pushing the global average to $2.78/kg. China–US lanes saw a 5% increase, driven by e-commerce and AI server shipments, while Asia–Europe also ticked up modestly. Despite these gains, rates remain 4% below last year, reflecting a softer peak season.

At the same time, regulatory changes are reshaping small-parcel flows: the EU announced on Nov 13 it will phase out its €150 duty-free exemption by 2028, following the US’s earlier elimination of its de minimis threshold. Together, these moves signal higher compliance costs and reduced duty-free e-commerce volumes, adding structural pressure to global air cargo alongside short-term rate volatility

On the other hand, global capacity remained stable week on week. A two-week comparison shows a slight 1 per cent decline in available bellyhold space between weeks 44 and 45 versus weeks 42 and 43. Reduced passenger bellyhold capacity after the end of the summer season on 25 October was offset by an increase in freighter operations.

Airfreight Rates – Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index

Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) powered by TAC Data

Rates are based on spot and contract prices provided by freight forwarders

Suez traffic shows first signs of recovery

Suez Canal transits have begun to rise, with weekly averages increasing from 229 ships earlier in 2025 to 244 in October and 269 in November. While this remains well below the pre‑crisis level of nearly 500 weekly crossings, it marks the first signs of recovery. The rebound follows the Houthis’ announcement of a pause in maritime attacks, linked to the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. This comes two years after the hijacking of Galaxy Leader, which triggered the Red Sea crisis

Suez Canal Authority’s spokesperson stressed that restoring stability in the Red Sea requires carriers to return to Bab El‑Mandab and the canal. The authority is holding meetings with major carriers to encourage their return.

Analysts forecast that if peace holds in Gaza, many operators may return by the first half of 2026. Diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have tightened supply: 10–11% for containerships, ~2% for crude/product tankers, and smaller percentages for LNG, LPG, and dry bulk.

Looking ahead, the Suez Canal Authority is actively courting additional vessel categories beyond containerships. Multiple agency representatives have called for targeted incentives for oil tankers, bulk carriers, and LNG vessels, which require less time to adjust sailing schedules.

CMA CGM remains the leading Suez Canal user among the global carriers

Recent Suez Canal transits by the CMA CGM BENJAMIN FRANKLIN and her sister vessel CMA CGM ZHENG HE sparked speculation that major East–West carrier alliances might soon revert from the Cape of Good Hope back to the shorter Red Sea route. Despite some easing of tensions in the region, current network schedules do not support this assumption.

According to Alphaliner, CMA CGM continues to be the top carrier transiting the Suez Canal, maintaining its lead among global operators. The French line accounted for 17.5% of total container ship transits, ahead of MSC at 16.2% and Maersk at 13.4%.

This confirms CMA CGM’s strategic reliance on the Suez route, even as carriers adjust to geopolitical risks and alternative pathways.

The Suez Canal remains a critical artery for global container trade, with CMA CGM’s position underscoring its scale and influence in east–west shipping.

Source: Alphaliner 2025-45, Global Maritime Hub

Ocean Freight Rate Movement (Market Average) in the Past 3 Months

Source: Xeneta