Market update

Freight Market Update: January 9, 2026

Shared by Elizabeth • January 09, 2026

AIR FREIGHT

GLOBAL AIR CARGO SET TO GROW 2.6% IN 2026 DESPITE TRADE SLOWDOWN

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that global air cargo will grow 2.6% in 2026, demonstrating remarkable resilience even as overall world trade growth slows sharply.

Key Growth Drivers for 2026

Air cargo's continued expansion will be driven by several critical factors, including AI-driven investment, rising demand for high-value and time-sensitive goods, and the accelerating shift toward e-commerce. The sector has proven its "unique stabilizing role" in the global economy by helping businesses adapt to volatile trade policy environments and enabling rapid rerouting of goods in response to tariff changes. These structural trends are expected to persist through 2026, positioning air cargo as the preferred logistics option when speed and reliability matter most.

Trade Adaptation and Frontloading Impact

The resilience of air cargo in 2025 was bolstered by aggressive frontloading in early quarters, where exporters rushed shipments ahead of announced tariff deadlines. Between January and August 2025, Chinese exporters shifted trade away from the United States while simultaneously increasing exports to alternative markets (India, Thailand, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and the EU). The value of trade transported by air rose 25% year-over-year during January-August 2025, compared to just 7% for overall trade and less than 1% for sea freight.

Projected Slowdown in 2026

While air cargo growth remains positive, the outlook for 2026 is more cautious than 2025. The World Trade Organization projects global trade volume growth will slow dramatically to just 0.5% in 2026, down from 2.4% in 2025. This deceleration reflects the fading of the frontloading effect, higher inventory levels, and a slowing global business cycle. IATA notes that the one-time boost from frontloading is unlikely to repeat, and trade growth is expected to remain below 1% next year. Projected global air cargo volumes will reach 71.6 million tonnes in 2026.

Airfreight Rates – Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index

Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) powered by TAC Data

Rates are based on spot and contract prices provided by freight forwarders

Trans-Pacific ocean rates swing as New Year looms while Trans-Atlantic capacity injection overtakes market demand

The trans-Pacific container market exhibited volatility in Q4 2025, with West Coast rates climbing 8% due to carrier blank sailings and bi-weekly General Rate Increases (GRIs) during low-demand periods, while East Coast rates dipped 3% before surging on daily spot pricing.

Asia-Europe trade lanes saw robust gains, with Asia-North Europe rates up 11% and Mediterranean routes rising 15%, fueled by disciplined capacity management, rising pre-Lunar New Year demand, and European importers front-loading orders ahead of China factory shutdowns. Freightos analyst noted sustained residual gains above early October lows, anticipating durable increases as Lunar New Year 2026 nears on February 17, with factories slowing from late January and halting for 1-3 weeks, prompting inventory builds amid 10-20% capacity drops and 10-30% rate hikes.

Red Sea disruptions persist despite Maersk and ONE testing voyages after two years, a full reopening could unleash 2 million TEUs, triggering European port bunching and Far East equipment shortages.

Looking ahead to 2026, US import demand stays uncertain amid record trans-Atlantic capacity from North Europe to US East and Gulf coasts—over 435,000 TEUs in January and 390,000 TEUs in February per eeSea, all-time highs despite blank sailings—pressuring weak spot rates stuck since early November according to Platts.

Container ship capacity on North Europe–US East and Gulf coast services, deployed and blanked, with planned capacity

Planned trans-Atlantic capacity swells to record high in January

Ocean Freight Rate Movement (Market Average) in the Past 3 Months

Source: Xeneta

Trans-Pacific ocean rates swing as New Year looms while Trans-Atlantic capacity injection overtakes market demand

Yusen Logistics has announced the launch of a new weekly ocean service, providing dedicated LCL (Less than Container Load) consolidation boxes from Hong Kong to Strančice, Czech Republic, ideal for shipments originating in South China or elsewhere in Asia.

This service is tailored to address the growing demand for flexible, cost-effective, and reliable solutions for shipping components and finished goods from Asia into the heart of Central and Eastern Europe, particularly for the robust automotive and electronics supply chains.

Yusen Logistics Completes Acquisition of Walden Health, Strengthening Global Healthcare Logistics Capabilities:

Yusen Logistics Group hammered out the acquisition of the Walden Group subsidiaries Movianto, Eurotranspharma, Transpharma International, and Walden Digital, which are the top healthcare logistic solution providers in Europe, on December 10, 2025.

By combining Walden Health’s expertise with Yusen Logistics global network, we further reinforce the leadership in European healthcare logistics sector and demonstrate our unwavering commitment to delivering best-in-class transportation and logistics solutions for the healthcare industry.

Yusen Logistics and AGL Kenya Form Strategic Joint Venture in Kenya:

Yusen Logistics Global Management Co., Ltd. (YLGM) and AGL Kenya signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Paris to establish a strategic partnership in Africa, in April 2025. Leveraging AGL Kenya as a key gateway, we dedicated to strengthening the logistics capabilities including freight forwarding, multimodal transport, contract logistics, and customs brokerage across the East African.