Market update

Freight Market Update: March 9, 2026

Shared by Elizabeth • March 09, 2026

AIR FREIGHT

Asia airfreight rates ease after Chinese New Year, but year on year gains hold

Seasonal events are impacting air cargo traffic and rate development in the week ending 15 February. After a run of five consecutiveweek-on-week increases in global airfreight tonnage, worldwide volumes dropped as all flowers had been delivered for Valentine'sDay and global trade activity slowed down in the run-up to the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday that started on 17 February.

Airfreight rates show mixed short-term movements: modest week-on-week gains in some regions, declines in others, but year-on-yearcomparisons remain strong in Asia and London, while Frankfurt andChicago lag behind.

According to WorldACD, the global tonnage was +7% higher than a yearago within 9 to 15 February, driven by traffic originating Asia Pacific (+22%)and MESA (+9%).

Overall, worldwide average pricing after the is showing a slightly positivetrend, but with factories in much of Asia closed in LNY, demand and ratesare likely to experience headwinds similar to last year during LNY,triggering reductions and shifts in capacity.

Source: Air Cargo News, WorldACD

Airfreight Rates – Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index

Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) powered by TAC Data

Rates are based on spot and contract prices provided by freight forwarders

Overcapacity and weak demand stall 2026–27 service contract deals

The ocean freight industry is entering 2026 under heavy pressure from overcapacity and weak demand, with spot rates on Asia–U.S.routes falling sharply since January and showing little sign of stabilizing. Rates to the West Coast have dropped more than 20% this yearto around $1,600 per FEU, while East Coast rates are down 21% to about $2,400 per FEU, both significantly lower year on year.

Carriers have continued to add capacity—expected to reach 1.4million TEUs in March—but importers are holding back on signing2026–27 service contracts, anticipating further declines andpreferring to wait until after the TPM26 conference in early March.

This dynamic has created a clear shippers’ market, where retailersand importers are leveraging falling spot rates to delaycommitments, while carriers struggle to balance supply withdemand. Meanwhile, Asia–Europe trade lanes are also weakening,with rates sliding despite reduced capacity, highlighting broaderfragility in global shipping. Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to bedefined by persistent overcapacity, challenging contractnegotiations, and potential geopolitical risks in the Red Sea thatcould further disrupt liner networks.

Container spot rates from North Asia to US West and East coasts, in USD per FEU

Ocean Freight Rate Movement (Market Average) in the Past 3 Months

Source: Xeneta