Market update

Freight Market Update: February 10, 2025

Shared by Elizabeth • February 10, 2025

AIR FREIGHT

Air cargo demand seen growing 4-6% in 2025

The global air cargo market is expected to grow by 4% to 6% in 2025 amid cautious optimism “tempered by its susceptibility to geopolitical tensions, a subdued manufacturing outlook, and political interventions in an increasingly volatile world. The growth will continue to outpace global cargo capacity supply growth of 3% to 4%. according to the spokesperson of Xeneta.

The report said a rebound of the traditional air freight market will be supported by demand for semiconductors related to generative artificial intelligence and advanced computer processing.

Looking further ahead, increasing environmental regulations could impact future growth of global air cargo capacity. For instance, International Civil Aviation Organization aircraft emissions standards on all in-production aircraft are set to take effect in 2028 and will bring an end to the production of Boeing’s current 777 freighter and 767 freighter.

In November 2024, international air traffic rose by 9.5%, fueled by increased e-commerce demand in the US and Asia Pacific, and continued restriction in ocean shipping. Most airline regions saw growth, with changes ranging from a 13.4% increase to a minor 0.7% decrease (chart)

International CTK by airline region of registration, YOY, %

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Connectivity increases benefit major ports

Newly released Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index released by UNCTAD shows The top-10 most-connected ports in Q4 2024 have seen their average connectivity increase consistently across the analyzed period, which accelerated since 2020, increasing the gap to the next 10 ports considerably. The remaining top segments have all seen increases, but they are relatively marginal compared to the top-10 most-connected ports.

“What this shows is that the most-connected ports are getting increasingly more connected on average. This trend shown here points to a network setup, which is increasingly reliant on a smaller set of major hub ports, where smaller ports are increasingly relegated to feeder services, reducing their overall liner connectivity score.”

According to a recent report, Shanghai is named among the busiest ports in the world in 2025. The annual container throughput of Shanghai Port reached 51.5 million TEUs last year, ranking first in the world for the 15th consecutive year and rising as the world's first port to stand above the 50-million-TEUs level.

Average Global Connectivity

(LeftL Top-100 tiered Right: Bottom-100 tiered)