Freight Market Update: April 9, 2025

AIR FREIGHT

Slump in Shanghai spot rates may be taste of what's to come for air cargo e-commerce volumes

• The ongoing tensions between major trading nations seem to have impacted international e-commerce volumes, as February's global air cargo market data shows a -29% month-on-month drop in spot rates from Shanghai to the US, at USD 3.23 per kg, according to Xeneta.

• Despite the Lunar New Year and typical seasonal slowdowns, this decline follows the US's removal of the de minimis exemption on Chinese shipments, suggesting that regulatory factors may be influencing the air cargo market.

• Global air cargo capacity in February remained flat compared to last year, with a combined increase of just +1% in January and February. In February, the global air cargo spot rate rose by +10% year-on-year to USD 2.53 per kg, the slowest growth since June 2024.

• Global air cargo demand, supply, load factor and freight rate developments

Air cargo demand slows to low single-digit amid growing trade uncertainties

Source: Xeneta

Airfreight Rates – Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index

Source: Air Cargo News

Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index (BAI) powered by TAC Data

Rates are based on spot and contract prices provided by freight forwarders

OCEAN FREIGHT​

The Geopolitical Shift in Maritime Trade

• Reshuffling Of Traded Volumes After Red Sea Attack

• The ongoing situation in the Red Sea has forced many carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope rather than using the shorter Suez Canal route. According to industry reports, this detour adds approximately 7-10 days to transit times and significantly impacts vessel capacity (Freightos Transit Time Calculator). If the situation stabilizes and shipping returns to normal Suez Canal routing, we could see a sudden increase in effective capacity, potentially driving rates lower. However, continued disruption would maintain pressure on rates and transit times.

Source: Natwest, Gocubic

Chinese firms are stakeholders in more than a quarter of Africa's ports

Chinese firms are active stakeholders in an estimated 78 of 231 African commercial ports. This is a significantly greater presence than anywhere else in the world. Access to African ports gives China the opportunity to establish strategic maritime and military operations on the continent. This push for development is driven by commercial demand, as Africa has the lowest share of shipping trade and vast untapped resources, making it a prime market for investment.

Transshipment along the West African coast is seeing a strategic increase in volume as Europe-Asia sailings avoid Red Sea risks by routing around the Cape of Good Hope.

Since June 2022, the average vessel size to West Africa has increased by 50%. Shipping lines are deploying larger vessels, with the largest exceeding 16,000 TEU. Since January 2024, 26 vessels of 15,000 TEU and above have been deployed for trades to West Africa, with 22 operated by MSC on standalone services across four routes

Ports in Africa developed or affiliated with China

Source: Sea Intelligence, Yahoo, Frieghtnews

Ocean Freight Rate Movement (Market Average) in the Past 3 Months

Source: Xeneta